when you have 5 loses in a row your bottle will crash and you will lose money,
if your bottle doesnt crash at that point you will feel really bad when number 6 loses.
there is people on this forum that make money and there telling you that they have tried this system and lost.
stop now!
Very interested in achieving the following..
+1
Agreed.
El Capitain reminds me of a macho guy I used to know who once told me about how he'd lost a few grand on some shares he bought in a particular company, but that anyone who is discouraged by that kind of experience needs to, as he put it, 'grow a pair'.
Eventually, he bought £20K of Lloyds TSB shares, convinced they would rise when some government announcement was made, but instead they fell in price. He now no longer trades...
Jeff
Agreed.
El Capitain reminds me of a macho guy I used to know who once told me about how he'd lost a few grand on some shares he bought in a particular company, but that anyone who is discouraged by that kind of experience needs to, as he put it, 'grow a pair'.
Eventually, he bought £20K of Lloyds TSB shares, convinced they would rise when some government announcement was made, but instead they fell in price. He now no longer trades...
Jeff
marko236 wrote:when you have 5 loses in a row your bottle will crash and you will lose money,
if your bottle doesnt crash at that point you will feel really bad when number 6 loses.
there is people on this forum that make money and there telling you that they have tried this system and lost.
stop now!
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
Guys. The LLS for this system is ok by my average odds calculation. You can always skip a card with 16 runner handicaps.
Jeff, thr System has an edge in that it is profitable.
Jeff, thr System has an edge in that it is profitable.
If the system has an edge you dont have to increase your bet when it loses it will make money by betting at the same price.
If you want to make money from gambling its good advice only to risk about 5% of your bank.
your system is to risk it all.
If you want to make money from gambling its good advice only to risk about 5% of your bank.
your system is to risk it all.
Last year, there was a sequence of 21 winning favourites.elcapitain wrote:Guys. The LLS for this system is ok by my average odds calculation.
How would your system cope with that, and do you think that you'd be able to get backers to take the hundreds of thousands of pounds you'd be laying to win back your tenner (or whatever your target is)?
No, it doesn't.elcapitain wrote:Jeff, thr System has an edge in that it is profitable.
"I have made money so far" does not equal "The system is profitable"!
YOUR SYSTEM YIELDS A LONG TERM NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY!
If you contact Gamblers Anonymous, I bet they can put you in touch with people who have lost everything using your system.
BTW, it's telling that I've asked you the same question twice, but on both occasions you've disregarded it. I suspect that you aren't entirely comfortable betting a sizable chunk of your wealth to make a couple of quid.
Jeff
Jeff was right to mention Nick Leeson earlier
Leeson adopted the philosophy that soon enough a winning trade will go in his favour and return all losses.
Leeson was right, unfortunately Barings ran out of money before he found that winning trade - that's what happens when Martingale systems go wrong
Leeson adopted the philosophy that soon enough a winning trade will go in his favour and return all losses.
Leeson was right, unfortunately Barings ran out of money before he found that winning trade - that's what happens when Martingale systems go wrong
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
guys, i've already turned a profit at Market Rasen, Navan and Ffos Las today, just Limerick still in the running.
how can yo say that it isn't profitable?
Jeff, what question do u want me to answer?
how can yo say that it isn't profitable?
Jeff, what question do u want me to answer?
It's a pretty small sample (to the point of being meaningless).elcapitain wrote: how can yo say that it isn't profitable?
Anyway, I've conceded that you might make a profit over even thousands of lays. However, sooner or later, you'll be risking ridiculously large sums to make ridiculously small sums, and you'll roll the wrong number one too many times.
For example, you dodged a bullet by not doing Uttoxeter on the first of this month: viewtopic.php?f=19&t=7575&start=40#p69003
If your system is profitable, it will be profitable to level stakes. Why not try to make two percent profit by laying every favourite in every race at level stakes, or bet a percentage of your bank on each race? Long-term, I'm pretty sure you'll lose money, but at least you probably won't end up broke...
Here's the question:elcapitain wrote:Jeff, what question do u want me to answer?
Beneath all the bravado, are you genuinely comfortable with the fact that, about four times a year on average, you will risk literally 200 times what you hope to win, with odds of success of maybe 80%?
I'd also be interested to know what your profit target is, if you don't mind sharing.
BTW, today's 'nice trading quote' is relevant to this discussion: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2805&p=69022#p69022
Jeff
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elcapitain
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- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
Jeff, in all honesty, im not comfortable betting 200x my profit target. makes me very nervous.
wish me luck at Limerick, gonna be 4 out of 4 today i think!
yes, very luck about Uttoexeter, but a man must take a few days of a year to spend the winnings!!
wish me luck at Limerick, gonna be 4 out of 4 today i think!
yes, very luck about Uttoexeter, but a man must take a few days of a year to spend the winnings!!
That tells me that deep down you're not confident in your methods - maybe your mind is trying to tell you something...elcapitain wrote:Jeff, in all honesty, im not comfortable betting 200x my profit target. makes me very nervous.
Anyway, I'm not saying this to be nasty, but we are getting nowhere here.
I just hope (genuinely) that you don't end up broke, but I feel you might.
You'd admitted that you sometimes risk 200 times your profit target. Let's say that you're in that scenario, and you're laying a 3.0 horse. There is a 33% chance that the horse will win, and you will lose big time. Unfortunately, the horse does win.elcapitain wrote:I couldnt agree more Jeff, ive analysed my worst case losing run scenarios, and that gives me confidence that i can get through those periods.
The next horse is also a 3.0 horse. You go all in again (even though you'll have to sell the house and the car if the horse wins). Once again, there's a 33% chance of a complete wipe-out. This horse also wins - there was a 1 in 3 chance of it happening, so it's not a huge surprise.
Right now, you're out of money, so there will be no more rounds...
Sorry, but that isn't speculating - it's Russian Roulette (potentially with the same outcome, if you lose everything).
Jeff
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
Jeff, how about laying the draw on football? how many draws can a team have in a row? 
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elcapitain
- Posts: 45
- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 4:01 pm
marko, if you start getting nervous, you can always do an acca as insurance and also hedge inplay. what are the odds that if each fav wins, that they will go from BSP straight to 1.01 without a little bounce up?
guys, more than 1 way to skin a cat.
guys, more than 1 way to skin a cat.