Trading at random

[speakers]

Without an edge, I think people will lose their banks fairly quickly, and either quit outright or throw good money after bad. It's something newbies should consider when going above £2 stakes.

Jeff

Looking back at this thread, I noticed this quote from Jeff which I completely agree with. I cannot understand why people wouldn't use the smallest possible stakes and even then only after a period of using the practice mode (which I think is a great tool btw).
I started with a £25 bank using £2 stakes and thought "if I can do it, £25 is enough because it'll grow and if I can't, £25 is not too much to lose."
I am certainly not a gambler at heart!

[Zenyatta]

Just about every post of yours has left me thinking that you have a negative, defeatist attitude. Your cynicism is practically palpable.

The trading/betting/BetAngel remains fascinating and sometimes fun. It can sometimes get very frustrating to be spending months at it and end up getting absolutely nowhere and losing money. When I get too negative I usually take a long break away before coming back to try again

The trouble is that the advice being put out by top-traders is misleading to say the least. They keep saying how simple it is, but simple mechanical implementation of their advice absolutely doesn't work. If it did, everyone would be profiting right away, but in reality, almost everyone has to spend months or even years at it to get anywhere.

I'm sure that they meant well - perhaps profitable traders themselves don't fully understand what they are doing! (You have suggested this too I think).

As an example, take the simple-sounding principle that you 'should immediately cut your losses and let your profits run'. As I stated, simple mechanical application of this on my selections actually results in losses greater than chance!

(In fact, since I made losses much greater than chance mechanically following this principle, if I had mechanically done the exact opposite of the standard advice- actually putting more money on every time the price moved against me, I would now be hugely in profit).

This really shows that these things are not simple at all!

[Iron]

The trouble is that the advice being put out by top-traders is misleading to say the least. They keep saying how simple it is, but simple mechanical implementation of their advice absolutely doesn't work. If it did, everyone would be profiting right away, but in reality, almost everyone has to spend months or even years at it to get anywhere.

Hi Zenyatta

The pros don't give purely mechanical instructions (understandably). The problem with saying something like, 'You use this technique when the market is really going for it' is that it's subjective and therefore not subject to easy replication.

IMHO, the closest you get in the public domain to really detailed and useful technical advice from a pro is Mugs's videos, where he discusses his exact reasoning behind everything he does in the market. That way, you can hopefully apply the principles to your own trading. That is not to put down anyone else's videos - many people's Betfair videos are also useful and can trigger insights.

However, as any financial trader will tell you, the methodology is only half the battle. The main battle is the battle within. Peter could teach you one of his techniques, but would you stick to it to the letter, even when you (inevitably) suffer a series of losses, or get bored out of your mind from following a simple formula?

BTW, apologies if I appeared a bit grumpy in my response yesterday.

Jeff

[Zenyatta]

The pros don't give purely mechanical instructions (understandably). The problem with saying something like, 'You use this technique when the market is really going for it' is that it's subjective and therefore not subject to easy replication.

Exactly, simple-sounding principles in theory turn out to have a lot of complications in practice. Again, take the example of stop-loss. Sounds simple, but in practice, every market is different (for example some markets are much more volatile than others) and then depending on what your trading style, things would be different again. And then you have complications like price-spikes and temporary resistance and so on, and so on.

I wonder if the pros are even consciously aware of all this hidden complication? It seems like they are sweeping a lot of subjective interpretation under the carpet.

However, as any financial trader will tell you, the methodology is only half the battle. The main battle is the battle within. Peter could teach you one of his techniques, but would you stick to it to the letter, even when you (inevitably) suffer a series of losses, or get bored out of your mind from following a simple formula?

In my case, I admit I would probably soon start getting bored and asking when I can make a big In-Play gamble?

[Golfer]

Everything works and nothing works.

[Zenyatta]

Everything works and nothing works.

Of course, even more annoying than vague general techniques, are empty plithy quotes and platitudes...

[Golfer]

lol, certainly not empty or meaningless.

For some cutting trades and taking frequent smaller losses works, others may be happy with more variance.

Find something that works, do it thousands of times whilst cutting out the knobhead stuff (chasing, gambling, ve- etc).

[Euler]

I've been contemplating recently whether I should just focus on my own trading. It often feels like I'm flogging a dead horse on the education front. People seem to find it really hard to separate people that really do it versus people that say they do to flog something.

[Iron]

I've been contemplating recently whether I should just focus on my own trading. It often feels like I'm flogging a dead horse on the education front.

It's up to you, but have you considered trying new approaches to education rather than ceasing training entirely? I liked your idea of watching people trade.

Whatever approach you use, though, I think that the nature of trading is such that very few people will succeed.

People seem to find it really hard to separate people that really do it versus people that say they do to flog something.

There are charlatans out there - eBay is full of people selling Betfair related rubbish, for example - but I don't think many people doubt that you are the real deal.

Jeff

[James1st]

I've been contemplating recently whether I should just focus on my own trading. It often feels like I'm flogging a dead horse on the education front. People seem to find it really hard to separate people that really do it versus people that say they do to flog something.

You can take a horse to water.....

There is a huge difference in what you offer Peter, a lot more solid and dependable than the latest fad.

[hgodden]

Sorry to hear the struggles that both of you have been having.

Jeff - much respect for being open about losses, not many are. I know you're a decent bloke so this wont come as much of a consolation to you but many people have lost far more (and not just in monetary terms) trying to learn to trade. I think you're unlucky in that maybe you have some of the ingredients to trade but maybe not others, which, allied to your perseverence makes you carry on, but maybe if it hasn't happened after all this time then it's time to accept that it wont and move on to other things? You've clearly got talents so why waste them here?

Zenyatta - take it from someone who knows what goes on in the markets and knows just what it takes - close your account down and get on with your life mate. Why waste another second on the past when there's so much you can do. One day you'll be dead and if you could look back on things you might well wish you'd completely forget all this trading nonsense and just focus on other things that make you happy.

Anyway good luck to both of you, and to others in similar situations. The odds are wildly stacked against you here (in more ways than most can imagine) so there's no shame in letting it all go and moving on, not when there's so much more you could be doing.

[spreadbetting]

I think without knowing what Jeff's doing it's very hard to say where he's going wrong but even small switches in your approach can usually yield big dividends at this game. One of the major problems he'll face is trying to break those bad habits and assumptions that are probably now ingrained after so long of trading. He may find one to one tuition is the best way forward to eliminate any flaws in his approach rather than just plodding on.

It's like when you see people trying to steal a tick or two by flicking bets into the market either side of the spread and then wondering why they continually have more losers. The simple fact is you can't assume the spread is yours. If we consider a simple random market 101% - 99% and 50% chance of the direction. Anyone market making may well have saved themselves 2% from the spread but you can't assume your bets will be taken other than where the direction is going against you. If we assume the market comes in and then reverses 50% of the time we now have 100% take up of our losers but only 50% take up of our winning bets. Suddenly that 2% loss of crossing the spread to get out 100% of winners also doesn't look too bad a deal.

Obviously that's a very simplified view but is probably one of the reasons all these people making fortunes in trading modes suddenly find life a lot harder when real money is in the market.

[Zenyatta]

Zenyatta - take it from someone who knows what goes on in the markets and knows just what it takes - close your account down and get on with your life mate. Why waste another second on the past when there's so much you can do. One day you'll be dead and if you could look back on things you might well wish you'd completely forget all this trading nonsense and just focus on other things that make you happy.

Good advice, but already taken, I did largely give up the trading around the end of 2012; in the latter half of '12 I was trading with a 34K bank and called it quits once I started taking some bad beat-downs. The disaster came about because I was trying to mix trading with gambling but it just won't work - I've now accepted I'm a gambler and not a trader.

Still, I occasionally return from time and time to see what's happening. Things seem to have gotten even tougher than I remember! I thought to myself when returning after a break, 'holy crap, the markets are so fast'! So I'm glad I got out when I did.

[steven1976]

Fair play to hgodden. Probably the best and most honest advice I've ever read for pre horse markets.

[spreadbetting]

Fair play to hgodden. Probably the best and most honest advice I've ever read for pre horse markets.

In what way is that the best and most honest advice you've ever read about pre-race markets? Are you viewing in general terms as in pre-race trading should be avoided or just in Zenyatta's case that he shouldn't trade pre-race?