Today's Football

[Derek27]

Postponed...

Postponed but Betfair doesn't know it. Markets opened and bots active but all bets should be void.

[MobiusGrey]

Nothing daft about that question. If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £50. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

That's what I love about o/u markets. You've got options, can switch sides, start trading with more of the profit you've built up and less of your hard cash, etc.

Aaaahh ok this makes perfect sense I think, definitely something I'd not considered and a nice angle. Am I missing something though with the first part, creating the free bet, have you ever been caught out by the market being suspended and a goal being scored whilst trying to create the free bet in the first place and if so does this impact heavily on any P&L over time?

[footysystems]

Are bets void here ? I am in for a fair chunk

[footysystems]

I hadn't noticed. I'm an over/under man and they closed those markets. I generally build up free bets on a couple of under markets, switch the free bet to overs when the price is low enough and wait for a goal.

Forgive me for asking probably a stupid question but if you've taken the time and risk to build up a free bet why wouldn't you just green this up and pocket it rather than then having a punt in a different market? Or is it just to make what could be a boring match into something more interesting?

Nothing daft about that question. If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £67. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

That's what I love about o/u markets. You've got options, can switch sides, start trading with more of the profit you've built up and less of your hard cash, etc.

Thanks Derek you give me an idea there light bulb moment

[Derek27]

Nothing daft about that question. If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £50. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

That's what I love about o/u markets. You've got options, can switch sides, start trading with more of the profit you've built up and less of your hard cash, etc.

Aaaahh ok this makes perfect sense I think, definitely something I'd not considered and a nice angle. Am I missing something though with the first part, creating the free bet, have you ever been caught out by the market being suspended and a goal being scored whilst trying to create the free bet in the first place and if so does this impact heavily on any P&L over time?

Yes, loads of times, just like a punter gets caught out when the horse he backs loses.

I've been trading football for just over a year and still developing my football trading but I've started getting better with my in and out manoeuvres (excuse the pun), judging when the market's likely to slide or when it will hold for a while due to aggressive play. And like many horse racing traders who are averse to losses, I've had to be bolder about throwing away a couple of ticks rather than sitting on it. As you know anything can happen in football, goals get scored when you least expect them. If you haven't got much to gain on the unders I think it's worth considering chucking it on the overs if there's enough time for a goal.

[Derek27]

Are bets void here ? I am in for a fair chunk

My understanding is that if a goal was scored the o/u 0.5 market would be settled, all others including match odds are void as the match hasn't been completed.

[footysystems]

Are bets void here ? I am in for a fair chunk

My understanding is that if a goal was scored the o/u 0.5 market would be settled, all others including match odds are void as the match hasn't been completed.

Thanks Derek that's my understanding

[Derek27]

Forgive me for asking probably a stupid question but if you've taken the time and risk to build up a free bet why wouldn't you just green this up and pocket it rather than then having a punt in a different market? Or is it just to make what could be a boring match into something more interesting?

Nothing daft about that question. If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £67. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

That's what I love about o/u markets. You've got options, can switch sides, start trading with more of the profit you've built up and less of your hard cash, etc.

Thanks Derek you give me an idea there light bulb moment

No problem. I'm still working on automation for the 2.5 market along those lines whenever I'm not manually trading.

[psychoff]

Nıothing to void. It will be continued tomorrow (probably) from the second half and all bets should stay.

[Derek27]

Nıothing to void. It will be continued tomorrow (probably) from the second half and all bets should stay.

Thanks Psychoff.

[MobiusGrey]

Yes, loads of times, just like a punter gets caught out when the horse he backs loses.

I've been trading football for just over a year and still developing my football trading but I've started getting better with my in and out manoeuvres (excuse the pun), judging when the market's likely to slide or when it will hold for a while due to aggressive play. And like many horse racing traders who are averse to losses, I've had to be bolder about throwing away a couple of ticks rather than sitting on it. As you know anything can happen in football, goals get scored when you least expect them. If you haven't got much to gain on the unders I think it's worth considering chucking it on the overs if there's enough time for a goal.

Thanks Derek, some really useful stuff there in just a couple of posts

[footysystems]

Nıothing to void. It will be continued tomorrow (probably) from the second half and all bets should stay.

Thanks good to know

[weemac]

Nothing daft about that question. If you've got a free bet of £20 on the under market and the price is 1.1, you can pocket almost £20, your you can lay the profit away for a £200 free bet on overs. A goal, depending on the stage of the match, could push the price up to 1.5. That would give you a free bet of £100 on the unders or a green of £67. Two goals in the second half, with 20 minutes to go could push the price above 2.0.

That's what I love about o/u markets. You've got options, can switch sides, start trading with more of the profit you've built up and less of your hard cash, etc.

Thanks Derek you give me an idea there light bulb moment

No problem. I'm still working on automation for the 2.5 market along those lines whenever I'm not manually trading.

Are you more 'feel based' on what you're seeing happening in the match, or do stats play a part?

[Derek27]

Thanks Derek you give me an idea there light bulb moment

No problem. I'm still working on automation for the 2.5 market along those lines whenever I'm not manually trading.

Are you more 'feel based' on what you're seeing happening in the match, or do stats play a part?

No, I'm pretty ignorant about football (my soccer Poisson database hasn't been much help, but it was only a toy), I just get a feel for the likelihood of goals and the effective odds you'd be getting if a goal or two go in.

[Derek27]

It looks like the market's closed and all bets voided. SofaScore lists the match as abandoned. Unlucky footysystems.