Trading What I see !?

[speedyhamster]

I thought I'd add there are a lot of parrelels between trading and poker. Both are games of chance and the variance drives people nuts in both. In poker the bible of the mental game is this:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Mental-Game-Pok ... 0615436137

The techniques in there I feel are applicable to trading so might be worth a read.

Just purchased this on amazon kindle (post from General discussion : Betfair trading made simple - Part 7 - How to stay calm )
what i have read so far i am very impressed .

[goat68]

So come on chaps, what's the secret of predicting the unpredictable????
I'm coming to the conclusion trying to get decent swing trades isn't going to be profitable...
I'm leaning towards Peters view point of doing the counter intuitive idea,eg.scalp 1 tick with a 3 tick stop. Everyone of you will shout NOOO, but it's counter intuitive........

[goat68]

Just tried first attempt, got my 1tick profit just as it moved 8ticks, doh!!!!

[Trader Pat]

So come on chaps, what's the secret of predicting the unpredictable????
I'm coming to the conclusion trying to get decent swing trades isn't going to be profitable...
I'm leaning towards Peters view point of doing the counter intuitive idea,eg.scalp 1 tick with a 3 tick stop. Everyone of you will shout NOOO, but it's counter intuitive........

Are you recording your trades and viewing them back? Are you waiting until the previous race is over before getting involved in the market?

[Jukebox]

So come on chaps, what's the secret of predicting the unpredictable????
I'm coming to the conclusion trying to get decent swing trades isn't going to be profitable...
I'm leaning towards Peters view point of doing the counter intuitive idea,eg.scalp 1 tick with a 3 tick stop. Everyone of you will shout NOOO, but it's counter intuitive........

In your first post on this thread back in June you said you'd observed something happen consistently - if true, that might have been the start of something. Now in October you conclude that its "unpredictable" - even so you're now willing to risk three ticks for a possible tick for no reason other than its "counter-intuitive". Counter-intuitive is not the same as without intuition.

[Euler]

+1 -3 is about a 50/50 chance on pre-off horse racing.

[speedyhamster]

Another crap day, multiple large losers wiping previous weeks profit...
I'm not convinced my 1:1.5 win:loss ratio strategy is working as I can't significantly hit a high win rate.
As I've mentioned before, I let positions go til -reward, then if they move further I close, which typically ends up -1.5xreward
From profit graphs I see of consistent winners on here I don't see large downswings, so wondering about changing strategy maybe even scalp...

IMHO These traders have built solid foundations, and know what to do if the Reason for entering the trade alters, and if x happens do y or if a happens do b etc, probably knowledge built over time learned in small steps to compound knowledge.

[goat68]

+1 -3 is about a 50/50 chance on pre-off horse racing.

Thanks Euler, that is useful actually given what I have learned, I'm going to apply myself very slightly differently and see where I go.....
Cheers
Goat

[Euler]

Don't do the -3, just focus on getting a good +1 and waiting for it to fill. If it runs against you leave it, you will learn a lot. If there is plenty of time left, then do another trade.

[goat68]

So just looked at when I opened this thread July 31st, so I've been going only 3 months on here, but it seems forever!! I start prehorse trading about May, so that's 6 months. So can you guys imagine how annoying you're going to find me in another 2 years time given that's how long this process takes you keep telling me You'll be begging me to become profitable just to stop my persistent wingeing...!!
Speak again tomorrow

[Trader Pat]

+1 -3 is about a 50/50 chance on pre-off horse racing.

Thanks Euler, that is useful actually given what I have learned, I'm going to apply myself very slightly differently and see where I go.....
Cheers
Goat

It seems to me that you're looking for a shortcut that doesn't exist. There is no secret knowledge that others have and don't want to share (not in manual trading anyway).

If you don't mind me saying you seem to be a bit random with your approach. Asking different questions about all kinds of stuff that you don't need be focusing on for now.

You should reduce your stakes right down and that way you wont be as twitchy if the market moves against you, you learn the most from being active in the market and making notes about why X is doing Y.

If your worried about the market going against you then you're over-staking, if you're over-staking and the market moves against you then you learn nothing and it turns into a white knuckle ride hoping your position comes back to you. If you're hoping the position comes back to you then you're not trading, you're gambling. You have to break that cycle and the only way to do that is by putting in the hours and trying to learn something from every trade, especially losing ones.

[smallplayer]

Don't do the -3, just focus on getting a good +1 and waiting for it to fill. If it runs against you leave it, you will learn a lot. If there is plenty of time left, then do another trade.

Gonna be a lot of newbies cursing you peter when they close out for a 20 tick red!

[Maturin]

Goat, did you trade this evening? I got murdered tonight, whilst yesterday (late afternoon and evening) I felt very much in control and had 11/16 winners. Tonight seemed very volatile, with prices jumping around all over the place. I had a couple of bad losses.

Question: are certain courses more volatile in the evening, such as tonight (Wolverhampton and Chelmsford City)? Do people generally avoid trading them, or just adapt their approach?

[goat68]

Don't do the -3, just focus on getting a good +1 and waiting for it to fill. If it runs against you leave it, you will learn a lot. If there is plenty of time left, then do another trade.

I did +1 -3 in the last 3 races of the day, good result on those 3 races 10ticks total, which given you say it's 50/50 gives me a good feeling:
2wins
6wins
2wins
1 actually did hit -3, but I hovered because there was £500 sitting above it which I knew was highly likely to hold it, and it did bounce back to my +1
Like you thought about ignoring the +3, especially after explaining that last one
Thanks again Euler

[goat68]

Had to edit that can't add 2+6+2=?