BTL (Back To Lay) Traders

[Online Trader]

Hi ba1000

Your maths are correct I am always looking to make around the 10-11 point profit

Races are 5f -7f All Weather Only

I am now looking at the turf with a view to selecting 2-3 coarses only where there are lot's of meetings such as Windsor as the All Weather dries up a bit in the summer months

[ba1000]

Thanks OnlineTrader - good luck I will investigate this further.

Are you not afraid that now you have disclosed the system that people will be trying to resist it i.e. the price may never steam in to your exit price - unless of course the horse is actually going to go on and win the race?

[Online Trader]

But I have not disclosed how I make the selections have I

[ba1000]

Good! I would not like to see you lossing out after letting us have a climsp of your system.

[ba1000]

Hi Online Trader just wondering if you can reveal your number of winners to losers ratio now a week or so on?

Very interested if you are still winning.

[Online Trader]

Hi ba100

Still ahead of the game, April was quiet for me as I was away for 2 weeks but still managed to return 30 points profit over 15 trades with a ROI of 10%

Not much AW racing at the moment so trades are rather limited (bring back the winter )

So far in May only 1 trade but a winning one at that

As I have said I am quite selective on my races

[ba1000]

Thanks for the update - you seem to have got something which is working! Excellent I wish you all the success - long may it continue.

I remember listening to Timeform radio and they had a shy punter on - he was a specialist too. He aimed for £500 per day just on selecting the winner. (And apparently he was successful long term as they had him on the show previously.)

I think his system was on the flat but the race had to be at least a 1 mile 2f because he said anything could happen at the shorter distances.

[mickypaul72]

Hi OnlineTrader,

Can you check my maths please on your system to see if I understand it correctly? This may be very idealised and you may not trade your system like this as you did enter your Ling 17:30 twice for example. (Note: I am not trying to discredit your system I am just trying to understand it.)

To recap: 65% of Back Price (Odds 4 to 9) 7f Races.

Back Odds Back Stake Back Win Back Loss
4 20 60.00 -20.00
5 20 80.00 -20.00
6 20 100.00 -20.00
7 20 120.00 -20.00
8 20 140.00 -20.00
9 20 160.00 -20.00

Lay EXIT Odds Lay Stake Lay Win Lay Loss
2.6 30.77 30.77 -49.23
3.25 30.77 30.77 -69.23
3.9 30.77 30.77 -89.23
4.55 30.77 30.77 -109.23
5.2 30.77 30.77 -129.23
5.85 30.77 30.77 -149.23

Net Back Profit Net Lay Profit
10.77 10.77
10.77 10.77
10.77 10.77
10.77 10.77
10.77 10.77
10.77 10.77

So basically:

If Trade Succeeded = £10.77
If Trade Failed = -£20.00

which means you are trading at 1:2 (profit:loss ratio)(approxiately)

You said you had done 25 trades 4 of which were losses:

No of Winning Trades 21

No of Lossing Trades 4


(Approx) So you are trading at: 5:1 (winning trades:lossing trades ratio)

21 * 10.77 = £226.17 gross profit

4 * -20 = -£80.00 gross loss
===============================
NET PROFIT = £146.17

(lets forget commission for this example).


Hmmm Nice