Correction. It's not "another" 43. It's 39 currently non-Tory seats and mainly not marginals. Sorry about that. An item on the DT live feed made it sound v.significant news.Derek27 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:33 pmThey've all be offered jobs as tory teaboys.superfrank wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:28 pmBXP have stood down from another 43 seats (Tory target marginals).
Always easier to aftertime - but imo (no matter the hype on the ground), we can't ignore Ukip's 2015 results. I think they went into the election 10% - 15%; & they got 1 seat - importantly though it was a defection. Is 1.55 value, dunno - but given Brexit is <10% atm; I just can't see where that seat comes fromjamesg46 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:00 amThat's interesting, I thought it was very low.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:54 am"Brexit Party U/O 0.5 Seats"
Interesting market
U0.5 @ 1.83!?? That's a bit high innit??
I agree with James that it looks very lowruthlessimon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:32 pmAlways easier to aftertime - but imo (no matter the hype on the ground), we can't ignore Ukip's 2015 results. I think they went into the election 10% - 15%; & they got 1 seat - importantly though it was a defection. Is 1.55 value, dunno - but given Brexit is <10% atm; I just can't see where that seat comes fromjamesg46 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:00 amThat's interesting, I thought it was very low.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:54 am"Brexit Party U/O 0.5 Seats"
Interesting market
U0.5 @ 1.83!?? That's a bit high innit??
Perhaps because a majority can reverse anything? Parliament could delete the 'Benn' act and everything else needed to allow a 'no deal' or 'give us what we want' negotiation with the EU. But good luck with that against a stubborn opponent. This is going to take years (decades) to reach an amicable situation. Look at the EU/USA dispute over aircraft construction. Unfair subsidies, legal wrangling, imposition of punitive tariffs. Its been going on for 15 years. This the reality of international relationships.dragontrades wrote: ↑Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:49 pmBut what is the message from the BP?
It makes no sense now that they are giving a free run to 'the second worst deal in history'
I'm not sure I follow why it could? Interested to know!dragontrades wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:50 amhttps://news.sky.com/story/fire-at-bolt ... g-11862469
This could have an impact.
The same is happening down under too - problem is most people in the city live in them so unfortunately its only a matter of timejamesg46 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:27 amI'm not sure I follow why it could? Interested to know!dragontrades wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:50 amhttps://news.sky.com/story/fire-at-bolt ... g-11862469
This could have an impact.
It says there is no reported casualties atm and I hope it stays that way. I'm baffled when it comes to understanding the design of these buildings. Was it a method of insulation or just for visual purposes? Did the designers not have or never seen how a coal fire worked... maybe I'm the stupid one (like I say, I'm baffled)
I think I'm starting to understand where dragontrades is coming from now, how long then before this and Grenfell become a political edge in the upcoming election campaigns.Naffman wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:52 amThe same is happening down under too - problem is most people in the city live in them so unfortunately its only a matter of timejamesg46 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:27 amI'm not sure I follow why it could? Interested to know!dragontrades wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:50 amhttps://news.sky.com/story/fire-at-bolt ... g-11862469
This could have an impact.
It says there is no reported casualties atm and I hope it stays that way. I'm baffled when it comes to understanding the design of these buildings. Was it a method of insulation or just for visual purposes? Did the designers not have or never seen how a coal fire worked... maybe I'm the stupid one (like I say, I'm baffled)
There was a poll recently that suggested support >50% for united Ireland given brexit.... Same with Scotland.... Genie is out the bottle...
A united ireland in the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years ?sionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:28 pmThere was a poll recently that suggested support >50% for united Ireland given brexit.... Same with Scotland.... Genie is out the bottle...
Don't disagree with any of that.Archery1969 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:16 amA united ireland in the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years ?sionascaig wrote: ↑Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:28 pmThere was a poll recently that suggested support >50% for united Ireland given brexit.... Same with Scotland.... Genie is out the bottle...
Do people think loyalist terrorist groups would allow that to happen. You would get a reverse of the troubles all over again. Bombs going off in Dublin would focus minds.
Ireland doesnt have the security / intelligience resources or manpower to cope with such potential events. Yes, they could ask the EU for help but that would put the rest of the UK in a very difficult position, would they allow EU / Irish security services / forces to go after loyalist terrorists in the old North of a united ireland. Not sure they would standby and allow that to happen.
Ofcourse a united ireland sounds lovely but dont forget out of a population of 1.8 million in the north around 48% are protestant and they would not look on it kindly. Even 1% of that 48% could potentially do allot of damage.
