(BLOG) Laying the Lame: Betting against the odds favorites

[jimibt]

P.S.: I'm thinking about testing my strategy on horse racing to see if I can maintain a win rate of around 80%. However, I don't know much about betting on horse races. Can you tell me if the strategies for horse racing are similar to those for greyhound racing, or is it a completely different game?

What you are attempting to do is called value betting. And yes that can be used on horses either backing of laying..

As others have pointed out the bit you seem to be missing is a value range for your selections. A "if less than 3.5 or whatever" is too generic, e.g. laying at 3.5 when the selection hits a min of 2 is a lot of potential value thrown away.

In the round the market gets the price right so even if you identify a weak fav then still need to know at what price that represents a value lay in that market.

can i add further to that. i did mention it a few pages back, but think it's important to underline. having a small basket of selections in the greys market is great if adding to a portfolio of betting options. however, on their own, this small subset may at best only produce @ £20-30 profit each day, so it's not really something that you can contemplate running a profit share on. as for the horses, those definitely would allow you to scale out far better but they are of course a completely different set of data points.

[Dogfather]

P.S.: I'm thinking about testing my strategy on horse racing to see if I can maintain a win rate of around 80%. However, I don't know much about betting on horse races. Can you tell me if the strategies for horse racing are similar to those for greyhound racing, or is it a completely different game?

What you are attempting to do is called value betting. And yes that can be used on horses either backing of laying..

As others have pointed out the bit you seem to be missing is a value range for your selections. A "if less than 3.5 or whatever" is too generic, e.g. laying at 3.5 when the selection hits a min of 2 is a lot of potential value thrown away.

In the round the market gets the price right so even if you identify a weak fav then still need to know at what price that represents a value lay in that market.

You are right about this being value betting. My question was not about whether it works in the horse racing market (value betting works in any market) but whether I can use a horse selection strategy (based on previous performances, stadium, etc.) as I do for greyhounds? It seems that in horse racing there is no concept of grades, and at the same time there are many types of stadium surfaces, I don't know how important this is..

Regarding the missed value... of course, laying at odds of 2 is much nicer than at 3.5, but for me, it's not that important. What's important for me is to know that laying at 3.5 is profitable... By the way, as a rule, the price on my dogs tends to go up. Also for this reason, there's not much point for me in looking at what the BSP was.

[Anbell]

P.S.: I'm thinking about testing my strategy on horse racing to see if I can maintain a win rate of around 80%. However, I don't know much about betting on horse races. Can you tell me if the strategies for horse racing are similar to those for greyhound racing, or is it a completely different game?

What you are attempting to do is called value betting. And yes that can be used on horses either backing of laying..

As others have pointed out the bit you seem to be missing is a value range for your selections. A "if less than 3.5 or whatever" is too generic, e.g. laying at 3.5 when the selection hits a min of 2 is a lot of potential value thrown away.

In the round the market gets the price right so even if you identify a weak fav then still need to know at what price that represents a value lay in that market.

You are right about this being value betting. My question was not about whether it works in the horse racing market (value betting works in any market) but whether I can use a horse selection strategy (based on previous performances, stadium, etc.) as I do for greyhounds? It seems that in horse racing there is no concept of grades, and at the same time there are many types of stadium surfaces, I don't know how important this is..

Regarding the missed value... of course, laying at odds of 2 is much nicer than at 3.5, but for me, it's not that important. What's important for me is to know that laying at 3.5 is profitable... By the way, as a rule, the price on my dogs tends to go up. Also for this reason, there's not much point for me in looking at what the BSP was.

People keep trying to gently push you into realizing that without 'price', everything else is irrelevant.

[sionascaig]

You are right about this being value betting. My question was not about whether it works in the horse racing market (value betting works in any market) but whether I can use a horse selection strategy (based on previous performances, stadium, etc.) as I do for greyhounds? It seems that in horse racing there is no concept of grades, and at the same time there are many types of stadium surfaces, I don't know how important this is..

If you look through some of the threads on this forum you will find folk that produce their own prices based on the above and use that as a guide to find value.

At the other end of the spectrum you will find folk that just look at prices (and the volatility) within markets to find value. They don't look at any of the above metrics.

At the heart of all of it, as Annbel says. is price...

Euler produced a good video a while back on backing the fav on horse racing markets... The fav wins in general 1/3 of the time... Backing at SP will result in a loss taking into account charges etc but he goes on to show how that simple strategy can become a winner if you just focus on "price"...

And Jimibt's points are spot on...

[Dogfather]

Anbell It seems we are speaking different languages (which is actually true - English is not my native language). What are you trying to say? That no one will take a bet at 3.5? They will take it (this has been proven). That they will take it, but it's impossible to place large sums? That's true, but there are many exchanges

P.S.: Tonight I'm planning to have a gin and tonic to feel like an Englishman and better understand what you're saying

[Anbell]

Anbell It seems we are speaking different languages (which is actually true - English is not my native language). What are you trying to say? That no one will take a bet at 3.5? They will take it (this has been proven). That they will take it, but it's impossible to place large sums? That's true, but there are many exchanges

P.S.: Tonight I'm planning to have a gin and tonic to feel like an Englishman and better understand what you're saying

I dont know whether anyone will take a bet at 3.5 on each and every animal that you list. Where is it proven?

Randomly listing 5 animals every day and claiming an 80% win-rate literally does not prove a single thing. The data is literally available every day indicating whether you would have won or lost with your selections..

[Dogfather]

You are right about this being value betting. My question was not about whether it works in the horse racing market (value betting works in any market) but whether I can use a horse selection strategy (based on previous performances, stadium, etc.) as I do for greyhounds? It seems that in horse racing there is no concept of grades, and at the same time there are many types of stadium surfaces, I don't know how important this is..

If you look through some of the threads on this forum you will find folk that produce their own prices based on the above and use that as a guide to find value.

At the other end of the spectrum you will find folk that just look at prices (and the volatility) within markets to find value. They don't look at any of the above metrics.

At the heart of all of it, as Annbel says. is price...

Euler produced a good video a while back on backing the fav on horse racing markets... The fav wins in general 1/3 of the time... Backing at SP will result in a loss taking into account charges etc but he goes on to show how that simple strategy can become a winner if you just focus on "price"...

And Jimibt's points are spot on...

I'm happy if these people's strategies are profitable for them. But that doesn't mean it's the only way. I have a different method, and I'm testing its effectiveness in this thread. For me, it's important to be able to bet at 3.5 (or slightly higher) and have a good win rate. Understand that I'm not a trader, I'm not very interested in watching the price...

[Dogfather]

Anbell It seems we are speaking different languages (which is actually true - English is not my native language). What are you trying to say? That no one will take a bet at 3.5? They will take it (this has been proven). That they will take it, but it's impossible to place large sums? That's true, but there are many exchanges

P.S.: Tonight I'm planning to have a gin and tonic to feel like an Englishman and better understand what you're saying

I dont know whether anyone will take a bet at 3.5 on each and every animal that you list. Where is it proven?

Randomly listing 5 animals every day and claiming an 80% win-rate literally does not prove a single thing. The data is literally available every day indicating whether you would have won or lost with your selections..

It won't be possible to bet at 3.5 on every race, some will have to be skipped, It's not a problem. I don't choose dogs "randomly", I select the best dogs for betting according to https://www.timeform.com/greyhound-racing/. Naturally, not all of them, but those which, according to my strategy, should lose. I deliberately choose recommended (5-star dogs) to get the lowest possible odds.

[Fugazi]

Anbell It seems we are speaking different languages (which is actually true - English is not my native language). What are you trying to say? That no one will take a bet at 3.5? They will take it (this has been proven). That they will take it, but it's impossible to place large sums? That's true, but there are many exchanges

P.S.: Tonight I'm planning to have a gin and tonic to feel like an Englishman and better understand what you're saying

You proved that 2 dogs in a sample of 5 were at 3.5

In mathematics that is not considered proof

[Dogfather]

Anbell It seems we are speaking different languages (which is actually true - English is not my native language). What are you trying to say? That no one will take a bet at 3.5? They will take it (this has been proven). That they will take it, but it's impossible to place large sums? That's true, but there are many exchanges

P.S.: Tonight I'm planning to have a gin and tonic to feel like an Englishman and better understand what you're saying

You proved that 2 dogs in a sample of 5 were at 3.5

In mathematics that is not considered proof

I don't feel the need to prove anything to anyone. If you believe that the dogs I'm suggesting can't be match 3.5, that's your right. If you want to check it out for yourself, you're free to do so.

[Dogfather]

By the way, I came up with an idea specifically for traders: What do I know about the dogs I choose? The fact that they are underdogs, but the market will initially overestimate them, so the odds will increase for these selections. How to use it? Place a 'lay' bet at the odds given by 'Betting Forecast' on timeform.com or slightly higher. The final starting price will end up being much higher.

P.S.: Just thinking out loud, I'm not a trader.

[foxwood]

I don't feel the need to prove anything to anyone. If you believe that the dogs I'm suggesting can't be match 3.5, that's your right. If you want to check it out for yourself, you're free to do so.

I did for the first three days of this week - as everyone has said it's all about the odds and not the strike rate - only 3 selections made your price cut at classic 2 minute time - getting matched before might be possible but the volume would not make it worthwhile imho on a handful of races a day - especially since you are trying to outguess both Timeform and the market.

[Archery1969]

I don't feel the need to prove anything to anyone. If you believe that the dogs I'm suggesting can't be match 3.5, that's your right. If you want to check it out for yourself, you're free to do so.

I did for the first three days of this week - as everyone has said it's all about the odds and not the strike rate - only 3 selections made your price cut at classic 2 minute time - getting matched before might be possible but the volume would not make it worthwhile imho on a handful of races a day - especially since you are trying to outguess both Timeform and the market.

Yeah, the above was my thoughts when I looked at it. Strike rate means nothing if your laying well above value. There is still allot of value to be made on the dogs but not blindly at 3.5. No chance of this being profitable long term given the small number of selections.

The OP should come back after 1000+ races but even then I’m convinced it won’t show an overall profit.

For every £1 of profit he risking £2.50. And that won’t work unless you know the dog has been nobbled.

[Fugazi]

Anbell It seems we are speaking different languages (which is actually true - English is not my native language). What are you trying to say? That no one will take a bet at 3.5? They will take it (this has been proven). That they will take it, but it's impossible to place large sums? That's true, but there are many exchanges

P.S.: Tonight I'm planning to have a gin and tonic to feel like an Englishman and better understand what you're saying

You proved that 2 dogs in a sample of 5 were at 3.5

In mathematics that is not considered proof

I don't feel the need to prove anything to anyone. If you believe that the dogs I'm suggesting can't be match 3.5, that's your right. If you want to check it out for yourself, you're free to do so.

Yep you are right. Seems you've come up with something really great I never thought of. Wish I had thought of it !

All the best and well done

Fugazi

[Dogfather]

Fugazi At last, my efforts have been recognized, which means it wasn't all for nothing Stay tuned for updates, tomorrow I'm preparing a big post to answer everyone's questions.

P.S.: I hope I haven't offended anyone. If I have, I apologize.