Motivation from other Trader's blogs and P&Ls.

[Euler]

Photon, As I mentioned further up the thread I have only ever posted reasonably realistic trading positions that I feel others could achieve. All the outliers I've not posted. So that previous post is pretty balance for example, that wasn't the biggest race of the day, but the biggest was way out there. So I opted to post a decent result but one that could be achieved.

OK you would have needed a healthy bank to do it, but it was perfectly possible. Even if you the stake but ten it would have been decent.

If I cherry picked non trading strategies to post, they would look amazing, but I don't because that would be misleading and unrealistic. But as we are debating it, look at one of yesterdays (non trading) results.

15-10-2014 - P&L Day - EDIT.png

Impressive, but no way does it tell the full story, which is why I don't post these sort of things. On this particular strategy a chunk of that could reverse itself on another day so it would need to be taken in context with that.

[convoysur-2]

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[Euler]

Not trading though, so highly variable, I could lose a big chunk of that today. But it's all about the long term result.

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2014/08 ... ng-system/

[convoysur-2]

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[NeilSpence]

Euler,
I have read your blog linked above regarding 100% book and how accurate it is. I believe you have automated the bets to get the results here. If they are automated, the entry price is still dictated by human behavior on what the market thinks that particular horse is doing, i.e might win, looks like losing etc, therefore generating its price. Would that be correct to say?
If so, what if the general consensus of the horse is wrong or a small amount of in play liquidity on that horse leads to spikes in price and therefore perceiving value?
Is it much different from selecting a horse at a similar price that you don't think is traveling too well and laying it cause you think it can't win?
Is it the value that is picking the good results or will that just give you an edge when it does revert to the mean??
Does that make sense?

[Euler]

It's not automated. I think it could possibly be automated, but I haven't done that just yet. Based on my time in the market trading you see price deviate significantly from where they should be. You find yourself saying, how stupid is that. So I turned it into a strategy.

I'm just looking for moments when the market acts kinda dumb and I'm looking to exploit that. I just noticed that one account was consistently profitable when I was messing around once, so I could see an opportunity. It was just a question of homing in on it.

I dug through the blog and if you look at the following post, you can see I started around three years ago. In that time I've just built up the stake sizes as I've got more confident.

http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2011/09 ... look-like/

[NeilSpence]

Is your opportunity race driven and picking your moment by watching the race or is it price driven and picking a spot to enter when perhaps the price should be somewhere else? It is quite difficult if you are 2-3 seconds behind "LIVE" action to be finding the anomaly as you are effectively placing a bet on what has already happened.

[Euler]

It's all pre-off, I'm just carefully watching where the price deviations dramatically from the mean. Something can't trade a 3 and 6 and one of them not be value.

[NeilSpence]

ok, so effectively outright lays based on where you consider the value is?

Do you ever then close it out in play if it looks like winning or are you not even watching the race knowing the "edge" in value will see you through long term?

[spreadbetting]

It's hard enough finding value once, let alone twice on the same horse. With automated angles you play the long game.

[andyfuller]

I would guess it helps to create a lot of commission for the Premium Charge calculation which helps bring Peter down from 60% if I had to guess.

I would suspect that that is the main purpose?

[freddy]

Thats the only reason i can think of too ,

I remember reading the original blog post and it leaving me a bit baffled at the time.

Carnt imagine why would you would choose to lay rather than trade otherwise.

[Euler]

Trading and value are two entirely different strategies both with differing metrics and bank management. Can't see why you would only do one if you have two things that are working?

I discovered the lay strategy while looking at ways to mitigate PC. So it's double bubble for me.

[freddy]

So to clarify, would closing your positions at the off , be profitable too ?.

If the method is not based on stats or knowledge of Horse racing then it must be profitable because your laying at very favorable odds, ie less or close to S.P, in wich case then most of them would be tradable as your picking the bottom of the range.

In my opinion there are two types of value

1. Value found by using Stats and knowledge of the event.

2. Value found by taking favourable prices, which in essence is the basis of trading.

I have always believed that good traders could be profitable gamblers, but have not really found justification to do so myself.

[BJGardner]

Laying Strategy.

I heard a Racing UK commentator say that if you backed every favourite on UK jump racing at SP over a year you would lose 20% of bank.
So conversley if you laid every fav presumably you would make 20%.
I guess the trick is laying at the lowest price possible.