Greyhound Mystique

[towelfox]

Always surprises me that you can pick dogs on form. I've got one and sometimes it wakes up lazy and other times it's full of beans. I guess greyhounds are selected for breeding based on who's just got an on/off switch rather than a personality.

I'm not convinced you can. Back-testing on a lot of data (graded only for now) and seems like a lottery outside of some very specific circumstances. Maybe the magic ingredient is evading me for now?!

I definitely don't think the form data from the bookies and their mates is enough. I think you would need to break down into performance by month, weather conditions, time since last run, season etc. Even then you won't know if it's really going to run true for 3 quid prize money or whatever pittance is on offer.

But you can pick a dog that is going to get backed on form.

[spreadbetting]

Some of my mates had dogs at my local track Catford in the 90's, remember one of their's opening up at 6/4F and the trainer said it didn't have a hope in hell, came a lucky 5th I think. God knows how the bookies priced up these events as it didn't have any decent form either. Pity Betfair wasn't around at the time but it taught me never to gamble on the dogs unless you were on the inside knowledge.

[spreadbetting]

Its not fully automated yet. Currently a work in progress. However the data it uses is fully automated from xyz.

The next part will be to automate bet placement via BA / Excel. But the eventual goal will be bespoke software so that BA / Excel is not needed. The software will allow the import of data from xyz and then do its own thing on a VPS somewhere. At the moment the data is only for UK dogs, not Irish, AUS, NZ or anywhere else that dogs are running. But with an average of 130 UK races per day 7 days a week then complicating the data issue is not something i will probably explore for the time being.

Cheers,

I'd push on with your automated bet placement via BA / Excel and put the bespoke stuff on the back burner for now unless you're a coder. You'd be surprised how many little unforseen problems crop up when going fully auto and you'd want to iron those out first. Plus if it's a winning strategy you'll be kicking yourself for not doing it earlier when it's up and running.

[Archery1969]

Its not fully automated yet. Currently a work in progress. However the data it uses is fully automated from xyz.

The next part will be to automate bet placement via BA / Excel. But the eventual goal will be bespoke software so that BA / Excel is not needed. The software will allow the import of data from xyz and then do its own thing on a VPS somewhere. At the moment the data is only for UK dogs, not Irish, AUS, NZ or anywhere else that dogs are running. But with an average of 130 UK races per day 7 days a week then complicating the data issue is not something i will probably explore for the time being.

Cheers,

I'd push on with your automated bet placement via BA / Excel and put the bespoke stuff on the back burner for now unless you're a coder. You'd be surprised how many little unforseen problems crop up when going fully auto and you'd want to iron those out first. Plus if it's a winning strategy you'll be kicking yourself for not doing it earlier when it's up and running.

Yep, wise words, thanks SB.

[sniffer66]

Always surprises me that you can pick dogs on form. I've got one and sometimes it wakes up lazy and other times it's full of beans. I guess greyhounds are selected for breeding based on who's just got an on/off switch rather than a personality.

I'm not convinced you can. Back-testing on a lot of data (graded only for now) and seems like a lottery outside of some very specific circumstances. Maybe the magic ingredient is evading me for now?!

I definitely don't think the form data from the bookies and their mates is enough. I think you would need to break down into performance by month, weather conditions, time since last run, season etc. Even then you won't know if it's really going to run true for 3 quid prize money or whatever pittance is on offer.

But you can pick a dog that is going to get backed on form.

Interesting on the back testing. I've been playing around with a mix of BTL, LTB & then often leaving LTB's to run if I can't trade out for profit (based on the form data). I don't have enough data yet on those to know if it's worth just taking the loss

[Archery1969]

I am mainly still using the original idea of trying to find dogs that will get backed and therefore shorten in price.

Its doing ok but due to one or more of the following it isn't yet perfect and maybe it never will be.

- Irish dogs being brought over to fill the gaps. No form available. High percentage of these get backed. I assume by people in the know so to speak.
- Dogs stepping down or up in grade. Again, punters or something is backing these off the charts.
- Races where nothing really moves much and each dog gets an equal share of backing.
- Some dogs get backed super early and markets have > £5k traded 10 mins before. These tend to be grade A1 to A3.
- Dogs with a sprinting background being put in T3 or T4 for an easier ride if they can get away quickly.
- Punters or something going against all the form ratings and backing a dog with no chance on paper. Bent race or again they know something i/we don't or someone with deep pockets who likes a dogs name ?

Anyway, its all good fun.

[AlexisMartin]

As I understand the time frame to find the dog getting backed is very narrow and by the time you can exploit the move the race begins and the market is suspended! Pre-empting the move is usually fatal in the long run and jumping on late is equally dodgy.
Even if you find the dog that does shorten what are the chaces that pattern repeats itself over and over again over the 150+ races?

[Archery1969]

As I understand the time frame to find the dog getting backed is very narrow and by the time you can exploit the move the race begins and the market is suspended! Pre-empting the move is usually fatal in the long run and jumping on late is equally dodgy.
Even if you find the dog that does shorten what are the chaces that pattern repeats itself over and over again over the 150+ races?

Ofcourse you can spot them.

Prior to the off and money coming in the market makers have the back odds very low and the lay odds very high. Never ever take the odds on offer as there exceptionally poor value. You offer your own odds between those two posts.

[Archery1969]

Wrong thread I know but does the api show how much money is waiting to be matched at SP ?

[ShaunWhite]

You'd think dogs were a piece of cake to figure out, no jockey, always same ish going, always 6 in a race etc etc but they're not mainly because so much of it is bent. You can't make a living dog training unless you're betting as well so everyone is in on it. And if you wait till money arrives it's probably about the right price. 90% of dog racing is just dog bingo put on to keep thee bookies in business, who could make a living if it was all legit?

SB is so right, going bespoke is a long expensive difficult job and with BA being so accessible via Excel, you're better of letting BA do all the hard stuff like comms, bet placement, cancelations & position keeping etc and just have the bespoke bit in vba. That's a good thing about BA, just use it as the transaction processing engine for a bigger system. You can just use BA for monitoring too, all my bet side is bespoke but doesn't display anything, why do all that when BA can do all the market and bet display stuff quite well.

[wearthefoxhat]

A couple of other "greyisms" I remember are;

Always follow a bitch (b) in form
They hold their form better especially when coming out of season. I part owned a fawn bitch at White City, lower graded type. She won some inter track competitions and raced until she retired on a win @ 5 years old. Which brings in the next consideration.

Age of a greyhound
This is an area the grader pays attention to, especially as they get caught out when a young'un can improve 5 lengths+ and the same again next race.

Example; Swindon 11.06 today.

Ashway Daisy - Fawn Bitch - 15Sept18

Swindon 11.06.jpg

Grader puts her in an A6, wins 5 1/2 lengths (not unfancied @ 5/2). Next race puts her up 2 grades, different trap, gets bad crowded. Next race, keeps her in same grade and puts her back in her last winning trap, Wins @9/4 jf. Market seems to anticipate this too. The race looks tougher overall, but if the market speaks in her favour....

The age 18 months to 2 years is where they learn their track-craft, peak years up 3 years. Those that are older, will win their fair share depending on how kind the grader is overall, as in the example of my own greyhound.

[sniffer66]

A couple of other "greyisms" I remember are;

Always follow a bitch (b) in form
They hold their form better especially when coming out of season. I part owned a fawn bitch at White City, lower graded type. She won some inter track competitions and raced until she retired on a win @ 5 years old. Which brings in the next consideration.

Age of a greyhound
This is an area the grader pays attention to, especially as they get caught out when a young'un can improve 5 lengths+ and the same again next race.

Example; Swindon 11.06 today.

Ashway Daisy - Fawn Bitch - 15Sept18

Swindon 11.06.jpg

Grader puts her in an A6, wins 5 1/2 lengths (not unfancied @ 5/2). Next race puts her up 2 grades, different trap, gets bad crowded. Next race, keeps her in same grade and puts her back in her last winning trap, Wins @9/4 jf. Market seems to anticipate this too. The race looks tougher overall, but if the market speaks in her favour....

The age 18 months to 2 years is where they learn their track-craft, peak years up 3 years. Those that are older, will win their fair share depending on how kind the grader is overall, as in the example of my own greyhound.

Useful info. Thanks for that !

[TraderFred]

Backing a greyhound after watching it take a shit used to be popular with betting shop folk.

I think it has about a 2 % ROI.

[jimibt]

Backing a greyhound after watching it take a shit used to be popular with betting shop folk.

I think it has about a 2 % ROI.

i live such a sheltered life -lol

[sniffer66]

Backing a greyhound after watching it take a shit used to be popular with betting shop folk.

I think it has about a 2 % ROI.

The quality of the dump or just the fact it had one ?