Australian racing

[Naffman]

That last race at Goulburn was a prime example, they all shifted off the fence and the fav got a cushy run all the way on the paint. Nothing wrong with the fence there either.

[The dog of ry]

Yep, it's something I have noticed a lot lately, and that just prompted me to say it.

Another thing i have seen a couple of times in the last fortnight, is harness horses being asked to go around the leader on the point of the turn, even though theres a sprint lane. Of course they get held up, and beaten, usually by the thing that was 3 back the pegs behind it!

We should freelance to stewards

[Naffman]

Stewards in this country are next to useless

And Brazen Beau ran well, I was quite surprised, I'm definitely on him in the July Cup.

[The dog of ry]

Yeah he went great. We woke a few of the neighbours in the last furlong

Love him to win July Cup, he's such a little professional. Fingers crossed!

[rinconpaul]

Try placing a straight SP bet on anything $40 plus, and see value go down the gurgler! I had $4k lay SP on a donkey at Gunnedah with a spread at the jump of $36 - $38 and got $90SP. That's why I get up early to bet the UK/IRE markets.

I posted on the Foxtel forum, " now that SKY's not offering VIC racing, how much of a subscription discount will I get? (Tongue in cheek)"

You wouldn't believe it, I got a reply jumping to the defence of Foxtel, saying it wasn't their fault! Might not be their fault, but I bet they're not paying the full fee to SKY now?

[gazuty]

I had $4k lay SP on a donkey at Gunnedah with a spread at the jump of $36 - $38 and got $90SP.

Well I'd expect that with a $400 lay in a country race let alone $4000. I'd never do that on a country race. You'd be lucky to get away with that on a group race. IMHO.

[rinconpaul]

The math of an SP liability bet? 4000/(38-1) = 108. I.m only asking a Backer to risk $108 to win $4000. The most on offer was probably $5. As for Group 1 AUS races you could easily risk $10k without bending the SP price. In the UK I would have no probs any day of the week.

Take Newmarket 4:35 19th June. Had $10k liability on 4 horses. Last matched price first, SP second:
120 - 112.48
200 - 213.54
140 - 140
140 - 139.36

So no effect whatsoever.

[gazuty]

The math of an SP liability bet? 4000/(38-1) = 108. I.m only asking a Backer to risk $108 to win $4000. The most on offer was probably $5. As for Group 1 AUS races you could easily risk $10k without bending the SP price. In the UK I would have no probs any day of the week.

Take Newmarket 4:35 19th June. Had $10k liability on 4 horses. Last matched price first, SP second:
120 - 112.48
200 - 213.54
140 - 140
140 - 139.36

So no effect whatsoever.

My point is that it is unlikely there is going to be $108 of backers at SP for an outsider at Gunnedah during a weekday (or even on a Saturday). In fact the entire pre off matched volume would be lucky to be $500 on that outsider and you are seeking another 20% at sp. Unlikely.

The UK is an entirely different matter and market that is at least 10 to 15 times the size of an Australian market. It's apples and giraffes more than its apples and oranges.

Can a $10k lay be sought in an Australian group 1 without moving the price. Not in my experience (axiomatically there will be an impact, but I would argue it can be material on some days). But then again it depends on the day and the market and the amount of sp backers.

Others might have a different experience or a contrary view.

[rinconpaul]

A retraction it seems, don't often see that. A retraction? Yeah from the load of rubbish you posted earlier! I had a reply all set to be sent 12 hours ago. Here is a bloke counting liability as turnover and not realising that SP bets draw money from a separate pool than pre race turnover etc (no idea), but I pulled it. Let it ride. But now he's back having another go at getting the story right?

We've got giraffes in the mix now? Have you ever placed a $10k liability bet in your life?

[Naffman]

API's really battling.

Victorian racing has become a waste of space.

2 markets have gone in-play early.

Oh I'm so glad this is my last Wednesday trading.

[The dog of ry]

What are you going to do? Steward?

[Naffman]

I wish, easiest job in the world!

I'm going back to the UK.

[LeTiss]

I wish, easiest job in the world!

I'm going back to the UK.

May I be so rude as to ask why?

It's not so long ago you were seemingly loving life in Oz!

[Naffman]

So many reasons LeTiss.

First of all (but I booked my flight before this), all the uncertainty around Racing Victoria is scary for traders. Also, the turnover charge on NSW racing peeves me off. So there's the 2 biggest states and traders won't be allowed to trade them.

Secondly, and most importantly, I want to see my family and friends again, haven't seen them in ages. Also, I'd like to go to a number of countries around Europe as well.

Let's hope I don't get sick of the English weather too quickly!

[trader-eric]

API's really battling.

Victorian racing has become a waste of space.

2 markets have gone in-play early.

Oh I'm so glad this is my last Wednesday trading.

Hey Naffman, can you remember roughly how early those Victorian races went in play ?
I've only recently resumed trading Oz after they somewhat relaxed the turnover charge rules and unlike yourself I have to battle through and hope that Victoria stays the same because that newspaper article you posted somewhat contradicted itself. Also from your recent experience, how many seconds before the start would be your deadline to hedge if you didn't want to get involved with IN PLAY ? I mean as a general safety rule with races jumping early and vision delays/lags eg hedge 30s before start or is it just a rarity.