Cheltenham 2015

The sport of kings.
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burdo77
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Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:13 am

I'm collecting data aswell. Anecdotal evidence suggests wisdom of the crowd is very knowledgable in this meet, but will have to review at the end.
Consty1
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Actually I spent quite a bit of time in the build up to Cheltenham watching several of the preview nights to try and gauge where market interest might be. Didn't help at all, in fact it was probably detrimental overall. The "experts" were quite some way off for the most part.

Was there a particular reason why Djakadam drifted so heavily in the lives? Seemed strange given the success of Ruby/Mullins and that Mullins had been quoted the night before saying that he'd love softer ground. Think he went off at 14.5 having been 8.0 the night before.
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Euler
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If you had managed to find the best trade in each Cheltenham race this year and compounded your profits, you could have turned £10 into £26,613!

If you focused on the front four at Cheltenham you could have turned £10 in £938 by picking the best trade in each race and compounding your profit.
burdo77
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heres the horses so far that have been napped by more than 50% of people
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PeterLe
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Euler wrote:If you had managed to find the best trade in each Cheltenham race ......
Peter what do you mean by best trade? do you mean the largest percentage change in odds and if so, over what time period?
Thanks
Peter
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Euler
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It's a softer interpretation. Basically when I turn to a market Bet Angel captures the data and compares it to the off price and works out the best trade. Brownie points if I spot it :lol:

But it works on a fixed stake. So it's designed to be quite a simple interpretation, what would you do with a £10 sort of stuff.
Wobbler
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Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:07 pm

i only managed to trade the wednesday due to work and not doing this full time, got caught out by a few of them sudden moves myself while scalping. Managed to record video and just watched the gold cup market market back and wondering if anybody got on djakadam's move. around 8 minutes out there was alot of money trading the crossover at 10 and 10.5 but it was looking like a drift was going to occur and sure enough around 6.46 mins it moved out to 14 by the time it went in play.
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Euler
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If anybody wants any charts or data from Chelts let me know.
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Euler
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The precursor to Djakadam's move was a large lay order after a period where the price was behind held up.
Djakadam_6987962.png
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Wobbler
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thanks for the chart peter, i've got video from 8.50 mins out and the price was already at 10 so missed that large lay it looks like it was matched at either 9.2 or 9.4 going of traded volume on the ladder.
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Dublin_Flyer
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Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

So would the overall consensus be a Yay or a Nay this year? I'm a gambler not a trader as some might know, but through pure statistical analysis I developed myself, I had 5 wins and 6 places on day 1.
Day 2 was that king canute (excuse the language) of a day some people have, a friend, the owner of Dun Doire (Will Hill 2006 Chelt) tipped me Windsor Park, Rivage D'Or and Aux Ptit Soins, I was already home from the bookies, night shift this week, so stuck with my own choices. Ouch.

Day 3 was the equivalent of that drunken teenage/20/30something house party, where you find out the girl you've been mad about was up for a hug and a kiss with you that night......but it's too flipping late! Combining my friend and I, 1st we had 1,2,3, 2nd we had 1,2,4, 3rd we had 1,2,3, 4th we had 2,3, 5th we had 1,2 YES I was the one that picked Darna! :D 6th we had 1,3. I got 6 ew doubles and 1 ew treble up, between us we had the 3 winners of the handicaps but not combined :'(

Day 4 I was finishing night shift while the friend was having the craic on the ferry over, bastard!
1st, wasn't touching with a barge pole! 2nd, winner. 3rd, second, foxhunter winner, 4.40 1,2,3, 5.15, 1,2.

With his tips and my stats, we're gonna try and get one of the big stupid bets up at Aintree, nothing more than a treble, but it'll be one of those bets you see reported in the paper and say F### Off, nobody would have backed them, that's a Lee M Short story! Or whatever that dicks name was. But....it'll be a real story! I'll update on the Aintree thread what the code sign will be if we're still live by big race time.

Long story short, I had a good Chelt, hope all you associates did good or at least did not so good. If you did bad then your mindset is wrong: you didn't do bad, you just did not not good! and hopefully learned how to not do it again.

I've been told to take a week off the horses because I'm going greyer and skinnier. I thought I was transforming into Darshaan, apparently it's something to do with stress and alcohol, I'm not gonna grow up to be a horse this NH season I think :'( But maybe.....see you all on the Aintree thread in a few weeks! :D
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Euler
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Curiously from a trading perspective Tuesday was a great start, Wednesday did nothing, Thursday was OK and Friday was a blinder.

I thought it traded OK this year, not the best and doesn't' get any easier but my opportunity to actually go to Cheltenham is postponed for another year.
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