Quit my job to do this as a living!

[Kai]

Do you have any pointers of the sort of stuff that works in football? Any videos you'd recommend?

I personally like looking at what people with a proven track record of 10+ years are doing (such as Paulo Rebelo and Psychoff) for guidance, for the obvious reason that if they've managed to survive and thrive in the markets for so long then their concepts and methods are most likely timeless. Not to necessarily copy/paste their entire trading approach which may be an impossible task (because 'we are the sum total of our experiences'), but at the very least understand their methods so that I have an option of borrowing them or parts of them.

In general I believe that the trading examples that they showcase are worth their weight in gold, because they're basically revealing their entire edge and highlighting the necessary skills needed to execute on that edge. Even just one concrete example of a trade should be enough to extract the edge from it and build a whole trading style around it, provided one has enough understanding of the market in question. There are many trading examples on their social media, Rebelo once wrote a short diary here and this summer he has made a video diary on his Youtube channel 10 years after the first one, while Psychoff regularly posted his trading examples on his Twitter but also gave a pretty good interview here. There are many football traders from Portugal in particular that have tried to invent their own unique trading styles and a good number of them have managed to make some of them work, but very few have managed to scale up properly because some edges are simply not scalable.

Also, I think this Twitter quote below that was posted a few days ago is absolutely spot on.

[SweetLyrics]

Thanks for those links, Kai.

It's incredible that Psychoff had actually quit Betfair at one point. There is inspiration there for us all, I think!

BTW, I wonder how many of us have ever traded like this: https://twitter.com/SJosephBurns/status ... 9514034176

[RussellMarsh]

First post on this site I have been on betfair for a good 12 years now which has been a roller coaster ride!

Until the past six months it’s mostly been a tail of doing ok for a bit then blowing my bank this pattern repeated for years with bouts of giving up.

Recently I have managed to avoid these past mistakes and have now just fired off the resignation letter! I had a job which many would be happy with only cabin crew for an airline but generally didn’t work more than 10-12 days a month for a decent wage although unsociable hours and not knowing from month to month what days I will have off etc!!

The main reason I have quit is over the past six months been earning on average 5k a month with footy trading. Could be more but my job has got in the way plus renovating my house!

I guess I’m just seeing if anyone else has gone down this route and would appreciate any advice. I have kept this from my family & friends as I thought I needed to do 6 months to prove to myself I can do it!
I’m in a fairly lucky situation in the fact I don’t have a mortgage so this is another factor in giving this a real go! I’m hoping to spend more time on the golf course & tennis courts and making this a huge live changing experience!

Obviously there are some worries one being in the future the premium charge and mortgages etc! Have any of you guys used betdaq on a regular basis? I have looked at the site but at present it doesn’t really have enough volume for the market in trading in which is almost solely the correct score market.
Any replies greatly received positive & negative!

I am a total newbie to this so would appreciate your help if you would be so kind. Are you simply laying the 3-3 draws and waiting to win when the result isn't 3-3 or are you actually trading these markets ie putting the lay down then backing at higher odds which is what I know as trading. If you are doing the former surely you are simply betting and not trading. And what kind of a bank do you need to have if you are trading on all the Saturday 3 p.m. kick offs at once or even two or three of them?

As said before any help would be really appreciated and I would look forward to a continuing dialogue as I get more involved if that would be ok....?

[SweetLyrics]

I am a total newbie to this so would appreciate your help if you would be so kind. Are you simply laying the 3-3 draws and waiting to win when the result isn't 3-3 or are you actually trading these markets ie putting the lay down then backing at higher odds which is what I know as trading.

Hi Russell

I don't think the OP is going to take part in this discussion.

However, I get the impression that it was the former.

I can't categorically say that this method has no merit, but I'd be extremely surprised if it's profitable long term.

There are are plenty of great resources out there for beginners, however. This thread is a good place to start (written by a professional trader - and having corresponded privately with this guy, I can assure you that he is the real deal): viewtopic.php?f=42&t=2021

Good luck.

[ShaunWhite]

Kai; I wish I had your ability to look at an example/situation (from football to horses) and it somehow reveal an entire approach. You're clearly an uber bright guy and the fact others can't see what you see must be baffling when it's so obvious to you. I and many others try to interpret things too but from my perspective, I get caught bouncing between 'don't overcomplicate what he's saying' and 'it must be more complex than I'm understanding'. I don't know if I can't see the wood for the trees, or not seeing the trees for the wood.

[Kai]

Kai; I wish I had your ability to look at an example/situation (from football to horses) and it somehow reveal an entire approach. You're clearly an uber bright guy and the fact others can't see what you see must be baffling when it's so obvious to you. I and many others try to interpret things too but from my perspective, I get caught bouncing between 'don't overcomplicate what he's saying' and 'it must be more complex than I'm understanding'. I don't know if I can't see the wood for the trees, or not seeing the trees for the wood.

Thanks Shaun but what I'm actually trying to say is that none of us have to be particularly bright or natural born traders, I don't think there's actually such a thing. I think people like to say that to flatter themselves only because they learn fast or something, but anyone can definitely learn to become that through genuine experience, simply because practice makes perfect. It's just extremely difficult for all of us to work out which skills we actually need to practice. For example practice is the only reason on why I do not sound like Borat right now, it's not because I'm a natural born linguist but because I've been "practicing" English for most of my adult life. Otherwise I probably would sound like Borat and putting together anything more than the most basic sentences would seem far too complex for me. But do you really need to use "big words" to appear clever or to get your point across? I don't think so, if anything I think that true eloquence should be getting that point across with the simplest of words so that even a simpleton could understand them. I'd say that the exact same goes for trading, sometimes the most basic strategies are the most efficient and the key may hide in the simplicity instead of complexity. Every trader with an edge should be able to quantify this edge and simplify it to the extreme to make it easier on himself to actually use it, if he cannot do that then maybe he does not fully understand where his edge comes from and he may be missing vital puzzle pieces.

A pro trader once told me that he could train someone who was really good at playing video games to make over £100 K a year, because of the way they approach gaming, i.e. being systematic and disciplined, and mastering one level before moving onto the next. I'm not sure those are the only ingredients for success, but I think he was onto something.

That is very interesting, we've actually discussed this recently in Eightbo's 'Work Smarter' thread because Eightbo and myself are former gamers and we did in fact find many similarities between trading and competitive gaming. I definitely feel that trading in a nutshell is basically a risk management game.

[ruthlessimon]

Quant trading uses a fixed set of rules to determine trade timing and direction in a systematic way.
Discretionary traders use intuition and “market feel” in order to make technical decisions and the discretionary trader does not always make the same interpretation of a market indicator or use it, in the same way, each time it’s applied. This trader uses personal judgment to determine the value of that indicator at any given point in time.

...and no doubt some people use a blend of the two and I think that's the ground Simon wants to occupy.

I was under the impression that Simon is looking for a pure quant method (possibly executed manually) that he can backtest, meaning that he can go into the market essentially making value bets (as far as one can be confident that one's bets are value bets).

I have suggested to Simon earlier in this thread that you tries using the approach you describe, experimenting with small stakes initially until he is regularly profiting, and entering and exiting using set criteria, but using his judgement to determine when those criteria are met (for example, if he is swing trading, using his judgement rather than a moving average to determine if the market was previously steaming).

I think that is his best way forward. I admire his determination in routing through historical data, but frankly, if he were going to find the needle in the haystack that he is determined is hiding there somewhere, I suspect he'd have done so by now.

What other options does a failing discretionary trader have?

I’m sure you’ll agree, it is their destiny to become a quantitative trader.

& this idea that needles/secrets don’t exist is complete baloney. Needles exist, & they have the potential to turn people profitable overnight. However, there’s a huge difference between a profitable trader, & a professional trader (especially with pre-off nags).

My big issue, (“focusing on needles”), is that I can only trade 30% of all races, & I wanna be trading close to 100%. But like Shaun, I am simply not talented enough to be able to spot edges in videos. Hence why I’m genuinely interested in anyone who advocates such a technique. My trading was shite when I only used videos!

[SweetLyrics]

What other options does a failing discretionary trader have?

Firstly, that's a hypothetical question unless you actually trade, and I get the impression that you don't!

Secondly, I have suggested a perfectly viable approach.

Try it out for a week. Worst case scenario is that you'll lose a few pennies and waste a bit of time.

I’m sure you’ll agree, it is their destiny to become a quantitative trader.

Have a look at the link to Psychoff's blog from Kai's earlier post. https://sportstradinglife.com/2018/04/p ... interview/

He failed way more than you ever will before becoming a millionaire.

He isn't a quant. In fact, he says:

'I am not operating with set strategies like “laying the draw” or “backing the favourite when they are behind” etc. I often receive some questions about strategies like these from my followers and they ask me if they work or not. Generally, I must say that I don’t believe in these kinds of constant strategies , especially without watching the game.'

& this idea that needles/secrets don’t exist is complete baloney. Needles exist, & they have the potential to turn people profitable overnight.

How do you know they exist? What evidence do you have?

Look, profitable methods exist. I'm not giving anything away by saying that some people are profitable swing traders. So I guess in that sense, swing trading is a needle/secret.

But if you are looking for something like, 'Enter your swing trade by taking from the market when the 60 second WOM is between 65.3 and 73.7%, and when the market has retreated by 3.28% from its all time low, and when the moon is about to enter into a new orbit', then I think you are furiously searching for something that doesn't even exist.

If you can't find a solid, common sense reason for why something will work, chances are it won't work long term.

Here's a final thought.

Maybe the needle exists, but you are looking in the wrong place. Maybe you are exhibiting the streetlight effect - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect

Maybe the needle isn't a specific technique, but a skill you develop through lots of boring, repetitive work, which allows you to quickly and accurately determine whether to enter the market or sit tight, by reading the market in the same way as an experienced driver reads the road.

[SweetLyrics]

However, there’s a huge difference between a profitable trader, & a professional trader (especially with pre-off nags).

Just realised I missed this.

Yes, I would say the difference is generally how much money they put through the market. However, unless you are into trading extreme longshots, liquidity shouldn't be too much of an issue for you.

My big issue, (“focusing on needles”), is that I can only trade 30% of all races, & I wanna be trading close to 100%.

Get to 30%.

Get really good at that 30%.

Then build from there.

You want it all and want it now. Life doesn't generally work that way, I'm afraid.

[Kai]

My big issue, (“focusing on needles”), is that I can only trade 30% of all races, & I wanna be trading close to 100%.

But why do you want to trade every race? Because that's what a pro trader is supposed to do? Surely the quality of opportunities is much more preferable than the quantity? Because you can't really have both. In an ideal world every race would only have 1 favorite and would be easier to read but a lot of them are handicaps and a lot of them are garbage that just does not trade well, there is not a single person out there that can consistently predict all of the randomness and hit a banger swing on every market despite trying to look at all the little clues. Sometimes I feel that most "hcaps" are not even worth trading even if you're getting something out of them, because crap markets can just annoy you and mess with your confidence levels and make you miss out when a good market does come along, I feel that sometimes it might be better to instead fully focus on the biggest of opportunities that offer the biggest swings and to just scale up on them.

You do not see football traders trading 100% of the games, that's not even possible timewise, they pick and choose the best looking games to work on. If they did, I'm pretty sure the results would look very different.

What other options does a failing discretionary trader have?

Have you ever tried splitting swing trading into anticipatory and reactive trading? Instead of trying to read every market and trying to anticipate moves and take up uncomfortable positions beforehand whilst sitting out through a bunch of noise, have you tried simply reacting to moves or maybe catch them on the move once you get the clearest signal of all that it's actually happening? Because reactive trading is the approach that works for me in other preoff markets which were always my bread and butter. I can have an opinion but if there is a clear signal that the market has made up its mind on what it wants to do then I try to simply react, if it's painfully slow because the volume is too great that gives me enough time to enter if I'm ready for it and often when I'm not. Maybe a more reactive approach could work for you. The reality is that you do not need to take up perfect positions for swing trading, that's only what scalpers have to do because every tick matters for them, as a swing trader you're looking at the bigger picture and if you're right about this swing then it probably won't matter which price you actually took, just be mindful of retracements. It's getting late so not sure if I'm making sense anymore, but in case I'm not I'm basically suggesting that you maybe try actively looking for breakouts.

[ruthlessimon]

Firstly, that's a hypothetical question unless you actually trade, and I get the impression that you don't!

& this idea that needles/secrets don’t exist is complete baloney. Needles exist, & they have the potential to turn people profitable overnight.

How do you know they exist? What evidence do you have?

Cos I sent you one!! (30th April 2019)

Obviously though (as we both agree), we don't discuss that strategy here - but according to my stats, it's exploded since that date; the bias has become stronger Problem is, it only occurs once a day (if we're lucky) - no matter what the stake, we can't go professional utilizing that strategy solo.

[SweetLyrics]

Obviously though (as we both agree), we don't discuss that strategy here - but according to my stats, it's exploded since that date; the bias has become stronger Problem is, it only occurs once a day (if we're lucky) - no matter what the stake, we can't go professional utilizing that strategy solo.

Let me repeat what I wrote in my previous message, in case you missed it (and because I think it hits the nail on the head, if I do say so myself):


'If you can't find a solid, common sense reason for why something will work, chances are it won't work long term.

Maybe the needle exists, but you are looking in the wrong place. Maybe you are exhibiting the streetlight effect - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect

Maybe the needle isn't a specific technique, but a skill you develop through lots of boring, repetitive work, which allows you to quickly and accurately determine whether to enter the market or sit tight, by reading the market in the same way as an experienced driver reads the road.'

You could spend the next 10 years looking for Peter's secret sauce, but even if it exists, I don't like your chances of ever finding it.

Or you could entertain the possibility that he doesn't have a secret sauce - that he's good at what he does because he is good at working out what the market is up to, having put in his 10,000 hours. If that's right, then the only way you will ever achieve that success is by doing what he did, i.e. observing the market in action, and seeing what appears to work and not work through experimentation.

You need to forget about your dreams of riches. Stop being a slave to passion. Just observe the market with a spirit of curiosity, and explore what does and doesn't work using tiny stakes. I think your stress levels will drop and you might even surprise yourself and become a good manual trader.

As someone once said - Trading is like sex. If it's a pain in the ass, you're doing it wrong!

PS I don't have any emails from you dated the 30th of April - you must have sent it to someone else!

[SweetLyrics]

PPS Let me give an example of high achievement from another field.

I'm about to start an MSc in Software Development. My brother graduated top of his year when he did his MSc in Computing (and beat everyone in the previous 4 years' classes too), so I thought he'd be a good person to turn to for advice ahead of the course starting.

He achieved what he did not through some secret technique that supercharges learning, but through being extremely thorough and hard working (and it helped that he was really interested in his subject).

I'm going out on a limb here, but I would say that the top traders achieved their success through that sort of approach - being really dedicated and meticulous, and being interested in exploring stuff (but not at the expense of doing the grunt work).

Just a theory...

[ruthlessimon]

PS I don't have any emails from you dated the 30th of April - you must have sent it to someone else!

Soz. 28th Apl.

If you want, I'm happy for you to post the screenshot/graph - but none of the explanations - & I'll post the graph up to the 30th of Aug It's the purest out of sample possible

-btw sorry if this seems ott (& wayyy off-topic), be you've effectively tried to defame me - & considering the help I've tried to give you, it's unacceptable

unless you actually trade, and I get the impression that you don't!

[SweetLyrics]

OK, so what you sent me was - I think - a lay only system which was profitable over 331 trades. I don't know if you allowed for 5% commission, or if your prices are based on offering or taking.

I didn't find your explanation of why the system was profitable over the course of the selection to be at all compelling.

I don't know whether the result could easily have resulted from randomness - you'd need to perform tests to answer that. However, the fact that it only works when a certain condition is met suggests that it was due to randomness.

Sorry to be so blunt, but I don't think you have anything here.

Now, I'm not saying that there is no such thing as a long-term profitable quant method. There almost certainly is. However, I don't like your chances of finding it using the approach you've been using, and I think that there are better routes for you to go down to succeed at this game (even if you find them distasteful).

You seem to have ignored the vast majority of what I and others have written in this thread, and I don't think anything else I write will change your point of view. As a result, I will simply wish you well and genuinely hope that you will come back in a few months, having proven the critics wrong and used your methods to make good profits.

On that note, I'll leave us with a wee tune: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onWf4_yl-pY

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