Blew over half my bank last weekend - need advice!

[Alexander_99]

Maybe I'll try to tighten up my filtering process for the games that meet my criteria for betting. But filtering it is hard for reasons I give below.

For example matches like Braga vs Tondela yesterday suit me well. A strong favourite that attacks all match long in an effort to get the equaliser / winning goal. The winning goal came in 91st minute:

https://www.sofascore.com/tondela-sport ... ga/ZjbsWrp

I watched all 2nd half and traded this successfully by laying the draw on 87 min and backing over 2.5 goals. The problem with these matches with a strong favourite is that the lay the draw / lay odds on the other team are very high even late in the game. Tondela were laying as high as 1.8 I think, just before the equaliser on 79 min. In general, the draw odds seem to be pretty high in majority of games, typically hovering around 1.4 on 80 mins. The reward: risk ratio is ok, but not that great.

So I faced a dilemma: get on the market and lay Tondela at reward:risk ratio which is close to 1:2 (or worse), or delay putting in my bet as late as possible in order to get a better reward:risk ratio (I want it at least 3:1), but risk missing the equaliser?

The other option was backing Braga (they were backing at 3.2 on around 60-65 min). But the problem with backing is that I think it's less likely to pay off than the leading team. And then the profit margin strongly depends on how soon the team gets the equaliser versus the time when you got on in the market. If I got on the "back" market on 60 min, then by the time the equaliser came, I would have only been able to trade out for an absolutely tiny profit. So laying the leader is a safer option but the lay odds tend to be too high.

I missed the equaliser but decided to lay the draw seeing as Braga were still all out attacking. Laid the draw at something under 1.2 odds and it paid off.

Another example from a few weeks back when I traded with tiny stakes: Genclerbirligi vs Sivasspor. Sivasspor are the league leaders and were 2-1 down to Genclerbirligi. I laid Genclerbirligi at 1.07 on 95 min. The equaliser came on 97.


So the only option I see is to have very strict criteria and only get on the market for 3:1 reward-risk ratio, and if this means "missing out" on many opportunities, then so be it.

[Kai]

So much work and time spent for a measly £20. Lol.

You guys keep saying that i watch / trade too many matches, but how are you supposed to look for value without actually seeing the match? Given that there are so many matches continiously broadcast, I don't know how to do this without trying to watch as many as possible simultaneously...

I'd be more appreciative of what Shaun is trying to say instead of tunneling on individual trades. Having no position on a market is still technically a position, one that always results in a positive outcome (zero). Missing out on a great opportunity is a perfectly normal thing that happens to top traders on a very regular basis, it does not mean that your day should now end in a loss, there is no real pressure on you to try and make up for it by trying to force an average opportunity into a good one.

The problems come when people don't have enough patience and discipline to wait for the right opportunity, when they can't resist giving in to instant gratification and expecting a reward for the time they invested in watching a match or market. You said it yourself, over the past 4 days you've watched 40 matches and you've found 65 trading opportunities in 35 of them, which basically means that you are able to find 2 great opportunities in nearly every match, and that in other words would mean that you were operating well beyond a world class level

But watch out for burnout, it's very easy to sail past the point of diminishing returns.

[footysystems]

There are sites out there where you can watch all games stats on one page this then will give you half a chance of spotting a trade rather than trying to watch all games flicking from one to the next. But you will have to pay for that data its not to much though.

[ShaunWhite]

There are sites out there where you can watch all games stats on one page this then will give you half a chance of spotting a trade rather than trying to watch all games flicking from one to the next. But you will have to pay for that data its not to much though.

The problem with stats sites is that they don't show that the top goal scorer is limping badly and the heavens have just opened.
But even that is preferable to this.......
.

david-bowie-04.jpg

[footysystems]

Stats dont lie..... Limping striker or not

[greenmark]

Stats dont lie..... Limping striker or not

Whats thats phrase "There's lies, absolute lies and statistics".

[footysystems]

Stats dont lie..... Limping striker or not

Whats thats phrase "There's lies, absolute lies and statistics".

TBH i make cash from the inplay stats so not complaining its how you read the stats

[greenmark]

Stats dont lie..... Limping striker or not

Whats thats phrase "There's lies, absolute lies and statistics".

TBH i make cash from the inplay stats so not complaining its how you read the stats

OK fair comment. I was perhaps conflating govt stats (to justify a policy) with stats collated by a successful gambler (trader).
So computing 2+2 and equallng 5.
Glad its working out for you though

[footysystems]

Stats reading is always open to interpretation so i made my own inplay stats or rating after watching millions of green pitches on 365

Just watching this game wanting PSV for next goal Red card though away side. That was Eindhoven even 2-3 now

[Kai]

Well this thread has certainly gone down hill. This is why we can't have anything nice on the forum, because those trolling millennials like Shaun are ruining everything!

Stats dont lie..... Limping striker or not

Whats thats phrase "There's lies, absolute lies and statistics".

Twas Mark Twain that said something like that if I remember correctly according to Google ("lies, damned lies and statistics")

But stats lie all the time unfortunately, it's the hips that don't lie, at least according to Shakira, and I am pretty sure there is proof of this somewhere on Youtube.

[greenmark]

I agree stats have as much integrity as the author.

[ShaunWhite]

Well this thread has certainly gone down hill. This is why we can't have anything nice on the forum, because those trolling millennials like Shaun are ruining everything!

Millennial? I wish.
I'm officially a Baby Boomer but GenX in the right lighting.

I wasn't knocking stats footysystems, sort of the opposite. However much info you think you have, there's always more. Gait analsys would be more useful than some things you see touted as important.

[footysystems]

I agree Shaun wholeheartedly after many years of watching games as with trading you begin too see patterns i had my patterns programmed

[Kai]

I'm officially a Baby Boomer but GenX in the right lighting.

And probably a millennial too when you put a cap backwards!

[footysystems]

Be very careful Nivi might appear