Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!
I completely agree but that's exactly what's happened in poker, lots of winning players sharing their strategies and ideas on video training sites. That was one of my main attractions to start trading really, hoping that hard work would reap it's rewards. The struggle for me has been not seeing any improvement (although my knowledge of trading must have greatly increased). The poker world died to an extent when all the training sites came to fruition and everyone tried to play the same style.LeTiss 4pm wrote:Once they have worked hard to define an edge, why should they share it with someone else?
consty.
you could use excel to red up when the market goes x£ against you or x% of your bank against you. once fired it would need to be reset, and the level of loss reset.
but you could have a sheet active on all markets set to red up when your loss hits a level that is acceptable to you, and allows sufficient movement for prices to ebb and flow enough allowing you to place your normal stops without them or the sheet firing to soon.
for example have a sheet set to red up when your loss hits £15 pounds, and right click in a stop loss on a price for example that equates to a 5£ loss. if it hits your £5 stop and shots all the way through, you still have a £10ish range before the excel sheet fires and reds you up at minus £15.
If as you said that you concentrate on the price action while trading on the ladder that you often forget to click in a stop loss, using excel in this way will at least give you a bottom line get out as long as the sheet is active.
you could use excel to red up when the market goes x£ against you or x% of your bank against you. once fired it would need to be reset, and the level of loss reset.
but you could have a sheet active on all markets set to red up when your loss hits a level that is acceptable to you, and allows sufficient movement for prices to ebb and flow enough allowing you to place your normal stops without them or the sheet firing to soon.
for example have a sheet set to red up when your loss hits £15 pounds, and right click in a stop loss on a price for example that equates to a 5£ loss. if it hits your £5 stop and shots all the way through, you still have a £10ish range before the excel sheet fires and reds you up at minus £15.
If as you said that you concentrate on the price action while trading on the ladder that you often forget to click in a stop loss, using excel in this way will at least give you a bottom line get out as long as the sheet is active.
I've been encountering this situation a fair bit recently and it almost always wipes out my profit. The screenshot was taken with 2 minutes left until the off and is of the top 3 in the market.
I've been working on a strategy to concentrate on the 2nd favourite (in this case Russian Bullet) but then a price movement like this happens and I just don't understand it. It's worth noting that by the off the price had returned to 8.
This is an example of where I'm really torn about manually putting a stop loss in as well. I have no real problem with finding the discipline to get out of trades, the issue lies in actually being able to get out (i.e. I try and get out at 1 or 2 ticks, the market just keeps pushing down and I'm essentially just chasing it and I end up with a 8 tick loss when I was trying to get out at 1 or 2). Clearly right clicking in a stop loss would solve this but I find it can also become a problem if you set it at 2 ticks (it's still fairly frequently activated despite correctly predicting the direction the market eventually goes to). I should probably start looking to put a stop loss in at 4 ticks and seeing how that works out.
I've been working on a strategy to concentrate on the 2nd favourite (in this case Russian Bullet) but then a price movement like this happens and I just don't understand it. It's worth noting that by the off the price had returned to 8.
This is an example of where I'm really torn about manually putting a stop loss in as well. I have no real problem with finding the discipline to get out of trades, the issue lies in actually being able to get out (i.e. I try and get out at 1 or 2 ticks, the market just keeps pushing down and I'm essentially just chasing it and I end up with a 8 tick loss when I was trying to get out at 1 or 2). Clearly right clicking in a stop loss would solve this but I find it can also become a problem if you set it at 2 ticks (it's still fairly frequently activated despite correctly predicting the direction the market eventually goes to). I should probably start looking to put a stop loss in at 4 ticks and seeing how that works out.
That's a classic mistake.
You'll soon be cursing the fact that you're taking lots of 4 tick losses when you could have limited them to 2 ticks.
The size of your stoploss isn't the issue; you need to dig deeper.
Jeff
You'll soon be cursing the fact that you're taking lots of 4 tick losses when you could have limited them to 2 ticks.
The size of your stoploss isn't the issue; you need to dig deeper.
Jeff
Consty1 wrote:I should probably start looking to put a stop loss in at 4 ticks and seeing how that works out.
consty, now there are automation rules its simple to write a rule to red up at a certain price, it might help you get more consistent. for instance if a 4 tick loss is approx minus 8 pounds. then put in a rule that reds up at equal to or greater than minus 8 pounds. you can still scratch at level, 1, 2 or 3 tick loss, before the rule kicks in.
you can add multiple rules, so it quite possible using automation to add various safeguards without having to know any excel.
you can add multiple rules, so it quite possible using automation to add various safeguards without having to know any excel.
The 5min to off zone is what I call the 'kill zone' because it's where all the big money and big sharks are - too hard in my opinion, I only ever get my teeth kicked in every time I try it, and that's after a year and half of trying! IMHO the In-Play and pre-off from 1 hour to 5 minutes out is far easier.Consty1 wrote: The struggle for me has been not seeing any improvement (although my knowledge of trading must have greatly increased). The poker world died to an extent when all the training sites came to fruition and everyone tried to play the same style.
In-play is fine if you're watching the race live (which you aren't on ATR), but otherwise you risk getting your arse kicked every time a horse pulls up!Zenyatta wrote:IMHO the In-Play and pre-off from 1 hour to 5 minutes out is far easier.
As for an hour out, if trading highly jumpy, low liquidity markets is your idea of fun, then fair enough, but it's not for everyone!
Jeff
Hi Rolla
Let's say we have a trader who uses a 2 tick stop.
Our trader gets stopped out a lot, only for the market to reverse and continue on its previous path. So he might decide to widen his stops to 4 ticks, to prevent that happening.
But he soon finds he has a different problem. He doesn't get stopped out as often, but when he does get stopped out, he takes a bigger hit. He starts to curse himself for widening the stop. After all, he's just taken a load of 4 tick losses, and feels that the market is now behaving differently to how it was before. It feels almost like, just because he's widened his stop, it's not reversing as often as it did previously!
So he returns to a 2 tick stop, and the cycle continues!
Here's a thought. There's a spreadsheet available on this forum that allows you to place random bets with an offset of x ticks and a stop of y ticks. If you get 2 copies of the spreadsheet to run side by side for a week (bearing in mind Betfair's data charges!), I bet you'd make near as dammit the same loss on both a 2 and 4 tick stoploss. BTW, the only reason you'd make a loss at all is because of Betfair's commission.
Don't be fooled by randomness - It's a slippery beast!
Jeff
Let's say we have a trader who uses a 2 tick stop.
Our trader gets stopped out a lot, only for the market to reverse and continue on its previous path. So he might decide to widen his stops to 4 ticks, to prevent that happening.
But he soon finds he has a different problem. He doesn't get stopped out as often, but when he does get stopped out, he takes a bigger hit. He starts to curse himself for widening the stop. After all, he's just taken a load of 4 tick losses, and feels that the market is now behaving differently to how it was before. It feels almost like, just because he's widened his stop, it's not reversing as often as it did previously!
So he returns to a 2 tick stop, and the cycle continues!
Here's a thought. There's a spreadsheet available on this forum that allows you to place random bets with an offset of x ticks and a stop of y ticks. If you get 2 copies of the spreadsheet to run side by side for a week (bearing in mind Betfair's data charges!), I bet you'd make near as dammit the same loss on both a 2 and 4 tick stoploss. BTW, the only reason you'd make a loss at all is because of Betfair's commission.
Don't be fooled by randomness - It's a slippery beast!
Jeff
kingrolla wrote:Hi Jeff
thats a bit mysterious - would you like to ellucidate for us numpties??
"The size of your stoploss isn't the issue; you need to dig deeper.
Rolla
All sharks are invited to join me In-Play. I will set up my positions beforehand and just sit there, they can trade the race live. Know this: it is the sharks that will be getting their arses kicked, all the timeIn-play is fine if you're watching the race live (which you aren't on ATR), but otherwise you risk getting your arse kicked every time a horse pulls up!
As for an hour out, if trading highly jumpy, low liquidity markets is your idea of fun, then fair enough, but it's not for everyone!
Yes, I suggest an hour out is only for the big feature races. For ordinary races, try the T-10 min to T-5 min period. I reiterate that I think the T-5 mins to off is too hard.
Trouble with the stop-losses Jeff is that every race is different, some races are more volatile than others. You would need t to break it down results according to the type of race no?
I'm not at all sure the use of stops is helping (at least not in the pre-race), I think Peter Le did an experiment and he found use of the stops was a net loser, which is surprising to say the least. Depends on what you're doing I suppose (scalping or swing trading).
I'm not at all sure the use of stops is helping (at least not in the pre-race), I think Peter Le did an experiment and he found use of the stops was a net loser, which is surprising to say the least. Depends on what you're doing I suppose (scalping or swing trading).
You could adjust your stops for volatility, but my point was that you shouldn't widen your stops on all markets just because you're getting stopped out a lot.Zenyatta wrote:Trouble with the stop-losses Jeff is that every race is different, some races are more volatile than others. You would need t to break it down results according to the type of race no?
Trading at random with a stop of x ticks and an offset of y ticks is a net loser.Zenyatta wrote:I'm not at all sure the use of stops is helping (at least not in the pre-race), I think Peter Le did an experiment and he found use of the stops was a net loser, which is surprising to say the least.
It weren't for Betfair's commission, you'd break even long-term, as it would be like tossing a coin - you'd get as many heads as tails.
But that's not an argument against the use of stop losses - it's an argument against trading totally randomly...
Jeff