Federer versus Rafa:
I don't believe that Rafa is 1.66 to win the match. The market has it wrong here, no question.
I think people are probably basing their thinking on the head-to-head record, which is in Rafa's favour. What people forget is that a lot of those matches were on clay, and Rafa is a clay-court specialist. If you take out all the matches on clay, the head-to-head is actually roughly even (9-8 to Rafa).
Then people are probably thinking that Rafa has youth on his side. Yes, but that has to be balanced by the fact that Rafa is carrying a slight injury. That's a serious blister on his hand, which Rafa admits makes his serving slightly less effective. The age disadvantage of Roger is thus negated by the slight Rafa injury.
All in all, I'd say it's more like even money, and if anything, its slightly better than 50% for Roger, given the excellent form he's in.
A clear lay on Rafa I'd say.
Australian Open 2014
Here was my summary on the blog last night: -
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their great rivalry tomorrow when they meet for the 11th time on a Grand Slam stage.
Federer is playing well so far and came through Murray test with confidence, but surely Rafa is going to be a sterner test? Rafa leads the all-time head-to-head 22-10 but that's biased to clay of course. Since 2005 he has gone 13-2 on clay. Rafa also leads Federer 8-6 on hard courts. Two of those have come at the Australian Open with no reply from Federer. Rafa is 14-4 vs. Federer since the start of 2008. Federer failed to record a win over Nadal last year in four meetings.
Age is a key factor as well and this plays against Federer. Most players have retired at Federers age but looking at Federer this week you wouldn't know it. Rafa still has plenty left in the tank though and if it does become a war of attrition then Rafa will be good value. I guess the romantics will be looking for another grand slam for Federer and an all swiss final. That's certainly possible but I'll be weighting my start by looking at Rafa to break Federer first. Tactically Federer has done well by stepping up the court and pressuring opponents during his matches so far. But tactically I think that's out the bag now.
Looking forward to the match!
Don't take this the wrong way, but I think some of the problems you have with trading is that you are generally reacting to the market than anticipating it?Zenyatta wrote:Nadal is definitely in trouble now with the blister clearly appearing his play.
Federer's had down and he is almost certainly out now. I'll leave a little at high odds on Fed for a bonus if a remarkable comeback occurs. But that's it from me.
Wonder how Murray would have got on against Nadal? Could be his nemesis this year.
Wonder how Murray would have got on against Nadal? Could be his nemesis this year.
It annoys me when people say Federer is the greatest of all time. He isn't even the greatest of his own generation!
He has a horrible record against Nadal, and that's because he is an appalling tactician - he has no idea how to mix things up, or give Rafa a different look....the greatest player of all time would have found a way to change the course of those matches!!
He has a horrible record against Nadal, and that's because he is an appalling tactician - he has no idea how to mix things up, or give Rafa a different look....the greatest player of all time would have found a way to change the course of those matches!!
Federer has greater artistry, but tennis is first and foremost a game, not art, and the record clearly shows that Nadal is the better player.
Disappointing one-sided match tonight. Far too many unforced errors from Fed, stats show a whopping 50 unforced errors for Fed compared to Rafas 25! Nadal didn't win the match (although he played fairly well), Fed lost it. Very disappointing.
Disappointing one-sided match tonight. Far too many unforced errors from Fed, stats show a whopping 50 unforced errors for Fed compared to Rafas 25! Nadal didn't win the match (although he played fairly well), Fed lost it. Very disappointing.