Totally agree, some people are stuck in there own little world and are not willing to listen to different views.spreadbetting wrote:If you're predicting something it not exactly random trading tbf, plus I'd guess there are different views of random. If you're giving yourself a leg up by assuming the advantage of the spread is already yours I personally wouldn't consider it random.Ferru123 wrote: Let's say that, whilst you don't know what the market will do next, you predict that it's going to remain in a range for a while. So you offer within the range, and let's say your back bet gets taken.
Two things can happen here (assuming that matters are brought to a conclusion before the race goes in-play). Either the market stays within the range and also takes out your lay offer, giving you a small profit, or it exits the range and you exit the trade with a small loss.
If it's the latter, it's not the end of the world. After all, it's widely believed that, by trading at random, you'll near as dammit break even, so you won't lose much long-term with such an approach. But if there's some objective basis for believing that the market will remain range-bound and that the market will exhibit Brownian motion within the range, then maybe you will cross the line to profitability.
Jeff
To be honest Jeff, I think the fact you're reasonably intelligent but stubborn means you're making far too many assumptions, you believe to be true, and only take or seek out advice that reinforces those views for you. It's like the hundreds of blogs you see spring up for a week or so where people use discipline and an excuse why they're not winning. They conveniently ignore the fact that poor discipline usually adds just as much to their wins as their losses and their underlying strategy is the real reason they're losing.
I can see where Peter's coming from about the training. It's hardly disputable he's making a reasonable living at this but every time he puts up a view someone will want to stick in an opposing one because it's at odds with what they think rather than trying to understand exactly what he's saying and using it to their advantage.
Trading at random
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spreadbetting
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No ones attacking or critising you, Jeff, just giving you their advice. I know I'm not the most subtle of writers but I didn't go out of my way to ridicule or attack you, just saying you, and others, possibly need to be approaching things maybe differently if you want results, especially if that current approach isn't working.Ferru123 wrote:I've had enough of this nonsense.
Peter - Can you close my account please?
Thanks to everyone who has helped me over the years, and I wish everyone all the best.
Jeff
Jeff,Ferru123 wrote:Thanks, but it's time I left anyway.
With hindsight, I could have phrased my message more constructively.
Jeff
I'd offer you some advice if I knew what to say. The only thing I would add is that maybe you need to take a break from this for a couple of weeks? Come back refreshed and look at things differently
I dont always agree with what you say (as you know!), but I for one would miss your contributions
Regards
Peter
Cheers Peter - I appreciate that.
As you know, I've left the forum previously - not because I'd had a falling out with anyone. I just because I wondered whether I was getting anything from it, and whether I was really contributing (and if I really wanted to give advice to my competitors in a sum zero game anyway).
The posts this morning kind of brought things to a head. I was feeling irritated anyway, having got into heated political arguments on Facebook this morning, and I think I thought, 'I have better things to do with my life than get into petty arguments over the internet. What am I achieving here?'.
Plus - and this may be another reason why I took a break last time - I'm not sure additional information will really help at my stage of development. That's not to say I have nothing to learn - I do - but I need to focus on applying what I think I know without distraction. Plus, if I need a second opinion on anything, there are people I can email, including your good self.
As an aside, I'm not alone in wondering whether trying to contribute is worthwhile. Even Peter seems to be wondering whether to just focus on his own trading, from his message earlier in this thread (not that I am trying to draw any comparison between his contributions and mine).
Anyway, enough of this rambling.
I may return. I possibly over-reacted, but I may have left soon anyway. I may return though. I'll give it a couple of weeks and see how I feel.
Jeff
As you know, I've left the forum previously - not because I'd had a falling out with anyone. I just because I wondered whether I was getting anything from it, and whether I was really contributing (and if I really wanted to give advice to my competitors in a sum zero game anyway).
The posts this morning kind of brought things to a head. I was feeling irritated anyway, having got into heated political arguments on Facebook this morning, and I think I thought, 'I have better things to do with my life than get into petty arguments over the internet. What am I achieving here?'.
Plus - and this may be another reason why I took a break last time - I'm not sure additional information will really help at my stage of development. That's not to say I have nothing to learn - I do - but I need to focus on applying what I think I know without distraction. Plus, if I need a second opinion on anything, there are people I can email, including your good self.
As an aside, I'm not alone in wondering whether trying to contribute is worthwhile. Even Peter seems to be wondering whether to just focus on his own trading, from his message earlier in this thread (not that I am trying to draw any comparison between his contributions and mine).
Anyway, enough of this rambling.
I may return. I possibly over-reacted, but I may have left soon anyway. I may return though. I'll give it a couple of weeks and see how I feel.
Jeff
The fact that me and Jeff actually did worse than random trying to manually trade really highlights the fact that trading opens people up to exploitation, since these results (worse than chance) simply couldn't happen with punting.
The big problem I have with trading is the use of stop-loss, which I've always been extremely uncomfortable with. Basically, with trading, you're cutting your profits short by not letting bets run to completion - but if you do that, then it seems that you've really got no choice but start trying to cut your losses short as well (i.e., stop-loss), otherwise your losses will end up becoming far bigger than your wins.
Unfortunately, the introduction of stop-loss introduces extra-complexity and opens you up to exploitation. With stop-loss you are basically following trends, which means you are constantly at risk of being fooled into accepting a bad price (and the 'worse than random' results show that when people don't know what they are doing, that's exactly what happens).
The big problem I have with trading is the use of stop-loss, which I've always been extremely uncomfortable with. Basically, with trading, you're cutting your profits short by not letting bets run to completion - but if you do that, then it seems that you've really got no choice but start trying to cut your losses short as well (i.e., stop-loss), otherwise your losses will end up becoming far bigger than your wins.
Unfortunately, the introduction of stop-loss introduces extra-complexity and opens you up to exploitation. With stop-loss you are basically following trends, which means you are constantly at risk of being fooled into accepting a bad price (and the 'worse than random' results show that when people don't know what they are doing, that's exactly what happens).
Established trader - hey bud, there's £50 on the floor, pick it up.
Newbie, really? How do I do that.
ET, just bend down and pick it up.
Newbie, but what risk is there that something will go wrong?
ET, well I suppose something could go wrong but it's unlikely, pick it up.
Newbie, yes but can you explain the risk that something may go wrong if I try and pick it up.
ET, Not exactly but it looks like a great opportunity to me
Newbie, I see that, but you still haven't explained what could go wrong.
ET, Not really focused on that, I can see the money and can pick it up, so I suggest you do the same. Over the long term I think the risk reward stacks up.
Newbie, what if I can't pick it up.
ET, Why not try
Newbie, yes but I'm looking at the whole situation and I can see a number of scenarios where something could go wrong if I try and pick it up.
ET, Pick it up!
Newbie, I've carefully thought about your... where is it?
ET, I've picked it up and I'm moving onto the next one
Newbie, Hold on you didn't explain.......
Newbie, really? How do I do that.
ET, just bend down and pick it up.
Newbie, but what risk is there that something will go wrong?
ET, well I suppose something could go wrong but it's unlikely, pick it up.
Newbie, yes but can you explain the risk that something may go wrong if I try and pick it up.
ET, Not exactly but it looks like a great opportunity to me
Newbie, I see that, but you still haven't explained what could go wrong.
ET, Not really focused on that, I can see the money and can pick it up, so I suggest you do the same. Over the long term I think the risk reward stacks up.
Newbie, what if I can't pick it up.
ET, Why not try
Newbie, yes but I'm looking at the whole situation and I can see a number of scenarios where something could go wrong if I try and pick it up.
ET, Pick it up!
Newbie, I've carefully thought about your... where is it?
ET, I've picked it up and I'm moving onto the next one
Newbie, Hold on you didn't explain.......
Ha Euler, yes, around and around it goes. Either one gets it or not I suppose.
But look, for myself, I'm perfectly willing to ruthlessly persecute any opportunity I see - I'll happily throw thousands on a good thing and I certainly don't look for problems, I'm perfectly willing to assume the best and let a trade run.
If course if I cop a big loser I'm told 'You should have stopped out immediately when the price went against you!'. But if I do stop out right away next time the price moves against me, inevitably the price then totally retraces and I'm then told; 'You were far too negative, you should have let the trade run!'
P.S As to the mythical 'low-risk trade', I'll let you know if ever I find it.
But look, for myself, I'm perfectly willing to ruthlessly persecute any opportunity I see - I'll happily throw thousands on a good thing and I certainly don't look for problems, I'm perfectly willing to assume the best and let a trade run.
If course if I cop a big loser I'm told 'You should have stopped out immediately when the price went against you!'. But if I do stop out right away next time the price moves against me, inevitably the price then totally retraces and I'm then told; 'You were far too negative, you should have let the trade run!'
P.S As to the mythical 'low-risk trade', I'll let you know if ever I find it.
Risk is what you make it, in terms of winning trades i would class myself as one of the worst out there, if peter and mugs was to watch me trading within 5 minutes they would be rolling about the floor laughing there heads off 
So because i'm so poor at getting winning trades i have to be really good at cutting my loses, i dont know if it's possible to cut loses down to 0% but that's my goal.
So because i'm so poor at getting winning trades i have to be really good at cutting my loses, i dont know if it's possible to cut loses down to 0% but that's my goal.
There is a way to cut your losses to zero and save money...don't trademarko236 wrote:
So because i'm so poor at getting winning trades i have to be really good at cutting my loses, i dont know if it's possible to cut loses down to 0% but that's my goal.
And notice the contradictory advice being thrown around;
'Don't look for problems, keep a positive mind-set' versus 'Stop out immediately when the trade goes against you' - which actually amounts to keeping a look-out for problems with an eagle eye
and
'Don't follow trends' versus 'You must stop-out' -which actually amounts to doing exactly that - chasing prices around and following the trend
But hey, its all supposed to be as easy as bending over to pick up 50 pound notes right? Which is why after spending months or years trying to do that, 95% of participants are still not getting a penny
Sorry, but I think the average person would be far better off sticking with punting. At least In-Play the punter can be sure they're going to get a fair crack of whip (In-Play prices can't be easily manipulated), and also punting won't suck away hours and hours wasted in front of a computer screen (punting is quick and decisive).
But each to their own.
Cheers.
Yes i can see your point on punting, little time used and more fun aswell.
You can trade little and not take up alot of your time, say you put a punt on a horse you can set up two trades one if the horse is doing well to increase your win and another trade to cut some of your loses if it's doing poor, two trades won't take up alot of time and if your good at the two trades that could be your edge
You can trade little and not take up alot of your time, say you put a punt on a horse you can set up two trades one if the horse is doing well to increase your win and another trade to cut some of your loses if it's doing poor, two trades won't take up alot of time and if your good at the two trades that could be your edge
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I'm not quite sure I'd agree about punting being "quick and decisive", saving hours in front of a screen. The people I've known who 'gamble' for a living spend a lot more time than I do in front of tvs/pcs etc studying form. Like most things in life there aren't many shortcuts and if you want to make money thru betting you usually have to put in the hours somewhere along the way.