Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

[Archery1969]

Bad news. UK deaths now exceeds 1,000 with 250 dieing in the last 24 hours.

Our death rate now exceeds Italy for the same timeline.

Government now will have no choice but to impose a complete lockdown.

[Derek27]

If the Atalanta-Valencia match was, as a top immunologist put it, a C19 timebomb, it makes you wonder what effect four days of racing at Cheltenham would have on UK and Irish infections. Much longer than a football match plus four times as much traveling.

[wearthefoxhat]

A few neighbourly grudges to be settled more than likely....

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[Jukebox]

Our death rate now exceeds Italy for the same timeline.

Thats not true - whether you measure from the first death or even from when UK and Italy both happened to have 233 deaths total:
UK 20/3 ----233/281/335/422/465/580/761/1021
Italy 07/3 ----233/366/463/631/827/1016/1266/1441

[ShaunWhite]

Bad news. UK deaths now exceeds 1,000 with 250 dieing in the last 24 hours.

Our death rate now exceeds Italy for the same timeline.

Government now will have no choice but to impose a complete lockdown.

There’s no imminent cure for this so everyone (80%?) will probably get it. That's fine so long as the NHS can cope and we'll hopefully level out at about 20k deaths (0.04% of us). Complete lockdowns are really only possible for relatively short spells and when they're lifted you're back to square one. What's needed is a managed rate of infection and to be fair that's going quite well atm.

250 dead in 24hrs is only an increase of about 12% on a normal pre-corona day, and on a normal day the NHS runs at about 85% capacity, so it's still just within what's manageable. I'd read 250 dead as pretty good news compared to what it would be without a lockdown or a lockdown that had to be lifted so people didn't starve from lack of an income.

[greenmark]

Bad news. UK deaths now exceeds 1,000 with 250 dieing in the last 24 hours.

Our death rate now exceeds Italy for the same timeline.

Government now will have no choice but to impose a complete lockdown.

There’s no imminent cure for this so everyone (80%?) will probably get it. That's fine so long as the NHS can cope and we'll hopefully level out at about 20k deaths (0.04% of us). Complete lockdowns are really only possible for relatively short spells and when they're lifted you're back to square one. What's needed is a managed rate of infection and to be fair that's going quite well atm.

250 dead in 24hrs is only an increase of about 12% on a normal pre-corona day, and on a normal day the NHS runs at about 85% capacity, so it's still just within what's manageable. I'd read 250 dead as pretty good news compared to what it would be without a lockdown or a lockdown that had to be lifted so people didn't starve from lack of an income.

Agree 100% ith all that.
Something struck me very forceablt today. I and others have posted concerns about Africa/Brazil/India etc that have a lot of poverty and poor health resources and the terrible consequences for them of the virus.
But if you look at the % of those populations over 65, they're very low.
Similarly, people with underlying health conditions don't survive.
So by a bizarre twist they might do pretty well. It does seem to be sweeping through wealthy, longlived populations. Japan being a stark exception, particularly with the population density.

[Ver3bal k1nt]

Massaged might be putting it mildly, I think their numbers received the full 24 hour spa treatment at this point. Probably best to ignore places like China and Iran, those seem like fairy tale numbers. Draconian might be putting it mildly as well, if you believe some of the disturbing reports on what went on over there.

Russia could be added to that list you would imagine, they seem to have very few cases

Yeah, Russia is a good shout, they took an absolute age to even get their first few cases.

My missus's brother is a teacher in China. He wasnt allowed out of his apartment for 4 weeks under any circumstances. Specially designated members of the public did everyones food shopping for them and took dirty clothes to the laundrette. The lockdown was incredibly strict.

[Jukebox]

Is anyone seeing any evidence that health services are saving anyone?
Our strategy is to reduce death by by slowing the infection to ensure the health services aren't overwhelmed and everything else can go to waste. But this is only worth doing if your health service can actually save lives that would otherwise have been lost - there's little evidence appearing of that.

Uk Closed cases: Recovered/Discharged 12% Deaths 88%

[wearthefoxhat]

Someone's happy....

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[jamesg46]

Is anyone seeing any evidence that health services are saving anyone?
Our strategy is to reduce death by by slowing the infection to ensure the health services aren't overwhelmed and everything else can go to waste. But this is only worth doing if your health service can actually save lives that would otherwise have been lost - there's little evidence appearing of that.

Uk Closed cases: Recovered/Discharged 12% Deaths 88%

With no treatment or cure & taking into consideration that you would need to have been hit hard by this to even get to the point of being in hospital then I would imagine those numbers are to be expected, take recovery of non tested people or mild cases into the equation and you're going to be looking at those numbers probably the opposite way around.

[Jukebox]

Is anyone seeing any evidence that health services are saving anyone?
Our strategy is to reduce death by by slowing the infection to ensure the health services aren't overwhelmed and everything else can go to waste. But this is only worth doing if your health service can actually save lives that would otherwise have been lost - there's little evidence appearing of that.

Uk Closed cases: Recovered/Discharged 12% Deaths 88%

With no treatment or cure & taking into consideration that you would need to have been hit hard by this to even get to the point of being in hospital then I would imagine those numbers are to be expected, take recovery of non tested people or mild cases into the equation and you're going to be looking at those numbers probably the opposite way around.

I agree with you. The numbers of dead constantly exceed the numbers known to be critical the day before - which suggests they might not have already been in hospital - and we also know that many will have had it and recovered without hospitalization - some without even realising they had it. So are we really just taking people to hospital when critical, putting them on a ventilator for as long as they can last and then writing out the death certificate - if that is the case then we might be better off changing our strategy.

[jamesg46]

Is anyone seeing any evidence that health services are saving anyone?
Our strategy is to reduce death by by slowing the infection to ensure the health services aren't overwhelmed and everything else can go to waste. But this is only worth doing if your health service can actually save lives that would otherwise have been lost - there's little evidence appearing of that.

Uk Closed cases: Recovered/Discharged 12% Deaths 88%

With no treatment or cure & taking into consideration that you would need to have been hit hard by this to even get to the point of being in hospital then I would imagine those numbers are to be expected, take recovery of non tested people or mild cases into the equation and you're going to be looking at those numbers probably the opposite way around.

I agree with you. The numbers of dead constantly exceed the numbers known to be critical the day before - which suggests they might not have already been in hospital - and we also know that many will have had it and recovered without hospitalization - some without even realising they had it. So are we really just taking people to hospital when critical, putting them on a ventilator for as long as they can last and then writing out the death certificate - if that is the case then we might be better off changing our strategy.

I think they already are... I'm not so convinced that we are increasing capacity, I think it's probably likely that we are moving that capacity away from our usual hospitals & into temporary field hospitals with temporary morgue's. Its basically a production line for people dying (as horrible as that is) I think that's the reality of it & to prevent indirect death they need to move this away from our usual hospitals.

[Emmson]

[Derek27]

Massaged might be putting it mildly, I think their numbers received the full 24 hour spa treatment at this point. Probably best to ignore places like China and Iran, those seem like fairy tale numbers. Draconian might be putting it mildly as well, if you believe some of the disturbing reports on what went on over there.

Russia could be added to that list you would imagine, they seem to have very few cases

Yeah, Russia is a good shout, they took an absolute age to even get their first few cases.

They haven't changed much.

https://youtu.be/XwHkmfWJCAo?t=66

[Kai]

Russia could be added to that list you would imagine, they seem to have very few cases

Yeah, Russia is a good shout, they took an absolute age to even get their first few cases.

My missus's brother is a teacher in China. He wasnt allowed out of his apartment for 4 weeks under any circumstances. Specially designated members of the public did everyones food shopping for them and took dirty clothes to the laundrette. The lockdown was incredibly strict.

Not that I care about that corner of the world but seen footage of people's homes being barricaded from the outside to make sure they don't leave, and heard reports of sick people being sent to cremation whilst still alive. One thing is for damn sure, China knows how to Party.