Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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dragontrades
Posts: 1248
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

Does anyone else on here find that their trading form can fluctuate?
Sometimes you wake up in the morning knowing its going to be a good day but at the moment I am having a bad run and not really taking much out of the markets compared to recent times.
I know the markets aren't that great right now but I feel like my level of performance has dropped and the sharpness isn't there.
Anyone else had patches like this before?
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:13 pm
Lovely day at Newmarket - makes you feel glad to be alive. :D
Not such a lovely day at Carlisle & Ludlow, what a difference a day makes !
frankob20
Posts: 100
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 11:35 pm

dragontrades wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:40 pm
Does anyone else on here find that their trading form can fluctuate?
Sometimes you wake up in the morning knowing its going to be a good day but at the moment I am having a bad run and not really taking much out of the markets compared to recent times.
I know the markets aren't that great right now but I feel like my level of performance has dropped and the sharpness isn't there.
Anyone else had patches like this before?
I think Im using some kind of similar style as you. I am having a bad run for whole october, especially all tue, wed and thu.
Its almost impossible to skalp markets without fast fill rate
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

dragontrades wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:40 pm
Does anyone else on here find that their trading form can fluctuate?
Sometimes you wake up in the morning knowing its going to be a good day but at the moment I am having a bad run and not really taking much out of the markets compared to recent times.
I know the markets aren't that great right now but I feel like my level of performance has dropped and the sharpness isn't there.
Anyone else had patches like this before?
Yes, frequently.

Sometimes it's just down to the markets, fluctuations in liquidity, volatility, etc. But if a run of poor form continues there is usually a psychological factor. I suppose it's not different to footballers or golfers being out of form.
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

dragontrades wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:40 pm
Does anyone else on here find that their trading form can fluctuate?
Anyone else had patches like this before?
within the past year most definitely but this year has been my first year trading basically near enough every day, I’m now coming round to where I started this time last year, maybe it takes a year or two to bed yourself in so to speak.. to experience a full season or two to negotiate the changes over a full season perhaps
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Derek27
Posts: 25159
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am

My first decent market of the day. Chelmsford is as lively as ever.

Daffrah, 17-45 Chelmsford.jpg
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Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

dragontrades wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:40 pm
Does anyone else on here find that their trading form can fluctuate?
Sometimes you wake up in the morning knowing its going to be a good day but at the moment I am having a bad run and not really taking much out of the markets compared to recent times.
I know the markets aren't that great right now but I feel like my level of performance has dropped and the sharpness isn't there.
Anyone else had patches like this before?
I find I'm fairly consistent. I lose about £20 a week - although some weeks I take longer to lose it than others.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

October isnt the greatest month. Be more selective. I try and look for bigger moves and stick with them for this month. Change from Flat to jumps makes lots of weak markets but lots of opportunities for some big moves.
jjrrjj
Posts: 197
Joined: Wed Dec 09, 2015 8:21 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 3:02 pm
Another stupidly priced market this evening. What i love the most about the AW during the winter months is solid form being underpriced due to unraced well bred horses with high profile connections.

6.45 Chelmsford.

Bath and Tennis 4/1 favourite. The horse is setting pretty high standard when almost everything else is having its debut runner. There could be some nice horses in the race but I would price Bath and Tennis around Evens.
Won a couple quid, should of bet more
o well
thanks :D
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

No problem. You get a fair few of these throughout the winter. They usually win fairly well too.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

dragontrades wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:40 pm
Does anyone else on here find that their trading form can fluctuate?
Sometimes you wake up in the morning knowing its going to be a good day but at the moment I am having a bad run and not really taking much out of the markets compared to recent times.
I know the markets aren't that great right now but I feel like my level of performance has dropped and the sharpness isn't there.
Anyone else had patches like this before?
Unless you're some kind of machine you'll always have good and bad days, simple stats means a few of them with group together. The trick is to try not to force things to claw yourself back to some kind of 'normal' earnings when you hit that 'patch'. You just have to try and ignore them the best you can as short term blips can wreak havoc with your confidence and I'd imagine they've put a lot of decent traders out of the game who've overeacted.

I try to avoid looking at short term profit periods and just look at a rolling 3 month period if I need to guage how I'm doing. But I've been doing this for a living for well over 10 years and still have days when I think all my edges have gone and it's all over, so maybe I'm not the best to advise you :)
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:14 pm
But I've been doing this for a living for well over 10 years and still have days when I think all my edges have gone and it's all over, so maybe I'm not the best to advise you :)
Sounds like you're exactly the right person to me.
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jimibt
Posts: 4200
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:57 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:14 pm
But I've been doing this for a living for well over 10 years and still have days when I think all my edges have gone and it's all over, so maybe I'm not the best to advise you :)
Sounds like you're exactly the right person to me.
and tbh, i think this short term fluctuation is what drives many of us, who target automation, to question if their approach is sound. there's undoubtedly many rules that have been abandoned in anger once that black cloud hovers for more than a few sessions. it's only on review (with a few stats) that you can get the confidence to weather those storms... (cough, still got my brolly up!!)
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Euler
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Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm

Decent stuff at Moonee Valley this morning if you are around
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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:22 am
Decent stuff at Moonee Valley this morning if you are around
Sad to see Chautauqua not run there.
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