I am self employed and the exchange rate crash has had a massive impact on my livelihood. As a result, I had to withdraw my £2000 betfair bank and reduce it down to a measly 50 quid. Since then. I have managed to squeeze about 20 days trading in.
Looking back across the 20 days there is marked improvement in results. Previously I have found that I sucked at reading the markets but my psychology has always been my strong point. Now the two are starting to level out I'm feeling a lot more at home.
Since the reduction of my bank I gave myself a rule to follow. Regardless of the odds of the runner I'm trading, I will only use £2 stakes and never double up. This would make increasing stakes to chase losses impossible and in turn, make my results a bit more accurate. Obviously in the real world however, I would be placing larger stakes on runners with more money being matched. For now though, I accepted that the results would average out as I don't just trade the favorite all the time.
The only problem with using £2 stakes is it limits my execution on swing trades. I always cut my losses short which has never been a problem but I am also cutting my profits short. This isn't particularly by choice though. For example. If the trade has moved 5 ticks in the direction I expected but has temporarily slowed down and is showing signs of possibly stopping or reversing slightly, I will exit the trade. If I was using larger stakes I would prefer to drop a portion of my net stake back in to the market to give me a bit more breathing room to just sit on it and wait. To counter this I have tried trading the "noise" a little but I find then when I try to re-open a trade, I don't always get my bet matched which just ruins the cycle.
As per usual, I seem to have gone on a bit so I'll get to the point!
I'm in a position where I'll be able to place a bit more money in to betfair temporarily. Enough so I could probably work with £100 stakes maximum. I don't intend to do this straight away but I'd like a bit of advice on what to expect when upping stakes.
As far as deciding what stake to use. I figured that putting in roughly 1/3 - 1/2 of what is typically waiting on either side of the book (at a single price) would give me enough leeway to exit a trade as well as enter without causing a stir. Would I be right in doing this or should I play it safer? I typically take a price rather than offer one up when a trade goes against me as I find trying to get matched when the price is going in the wrong direction, on average, is counterproductive.
Using the above as an example. How much harder would you say it is increasing stakes from £2, up to £100? I realize this is a big jump and not one I intend to do straight away but I'd like some peoples opinion regardless. When I ask how much harder it is, I'm talking more about entering and exiting the market etc, not so much the psychological weight it carries when the trade goes against you or in your favor. I've traded with £100 stakes before, be it unsuccessfully (newbie error) and don't feel any different emotionally.
As a final question. I'm finding I'm getting about 1 losing race in 10. I spend a lot of time playing it safe and managing my risk and I don't tend to enter a trade unless I feel strongly about it. I feel that this level of "success" probably indicates I might be playing it a little too safe and could probably take a few more risks with larger rewards and obviously, more losing trades also. That being said, the high strike rate could be down to the tiny stakes I'm using!
Any advice much appreciated and also a big thank you to those that have helped me, or contributed to things I've read in past posts.
That's this months serious post out of the way anyway. Now I can go back to talking bollocks
All the best,
Tom
