Today's Greyhounds

[ShaunWhite]

..... I'm not having a pop at all your comments Andy it's just I know you're someone I can have a bit of fun with. Sun's out, jug of Pina Colada on the go, balance going up nicely in the background and just feeling cheerful:)

(BTW I'm a reformed newsoholic, the world was doing my head in so hard as it's been I haven't heard or seen any news for 6 weeks now..... And it's liberating. I'll hear the sirens if they sound and until then I'm happier and less stressed being an ostrich)

[goat68]

Which ever route you go, be it trading or betting (which seems a favourite with dogs), you need to be looking for "value" in the long term.

Any chance you can explain the difference between betting and trading? "Trading" appears to be the act of betting too big and then needing to lose some liability at any price with another bet later.

Think you've just explained it!

I think the likes of PW have a wonderful sense of value, you hear Peter say many times, "i think this move is over done..", i suspect more often than not he's right!

[Archery1969]

Personally, I find the dogs dead easy to trade these days, especially when whoever sticks £500 or so on one side or the other on the favourite to force the price up or down. Sticks out like a sore thumb and you don’t need to understand anything.

[Michael5482]

Is there a particular technique that appeals to you? I might be able to point you towards some data as it'll save you a lot of time and money if you could do some analysis before going live with a bot. Perhaps not concrete answers but it'll save you from running something that's a real non starter.

Initial thoughts are basic and to look for the steamer/drifter pre-off due to the price movements. Bots running in practice mode at the mo. It's two fold for me tbh as my knowledge of Excel isn't great so going to use the data side to enhance my skills. No issue putting the work in and if I can improve 0.01% everyday that's progress to me.

Ask yourself why is it "steaming"?
I think one of my mistakes was chasing "price-action" alone too much, I reckon my understanding now, is that historic price action signals in the long term average out at net-zero

Cheers I assume your pointing towards the wisdom of the crowd! Let the basic file run today but an obvious one is a few trades have been in profit then reversed and hedged for a loss so will amend the trailing stop look to off-set some of the original stake but think I will need to set up a servant for that

[Undockedstar]

Hi, does anyone successfully dutch greyhounds? Initially I seem to have started alright, after 2000 races I noticed over all losses from certain tracks so removed those tracks but now not going so well. Could someone possibly give me some pointers? Or just a good book or video starting point? Happy to learn just a bit lost!

[ShaunWhite]

Initially I seem to have started alright, after 2000 races I noticed over all losses from certain tracks so removed those tracks but now not going so well.

That's a classic case of back fitting. What made you think the track affected your strategy? if you have a reason then fair enough but stats on the whole revert to the mean. Without straying into the Gamblers Falacy/Law of Large Numbers stuff, your losing tracks might even have been expected to slightly over perform soon, if they're to revert to the mean. You may well have filtered your strategy down to tracks that are due a losing patch. Looking where you lost and stopping it sounds simple but it ain't.

Randomness does strange things to your results, especially as few as 2000 so unless you can find a damn good real world reason form something then treat it with a pinch of salt.

Dutching? Tbh I think finding one dog that's value is hard enough let alone picking a basket of dogs that together are value, but without knowing what value each individual one is.... (because if did you wouldn't stake for a level return you'd stake according to Kelly or similar). I've been betting for 40yrs and dutching has never made much sense to me aside from it being a fun bet to have.

[ShaunWhite]

a few trades have been in profit then reversed and hedged for a loss so will amend the trailing stop

Stop losses are a mathematical waste of time. They're basically a random bet and those are 0ev at best, worse if you cross the spread to do it. When I say waste of time, they'll smooth your varience but they won't help your month end numbers one iota.

There will be X amount that hit your stop and keep going and Y amount that hit your stop and then return to a better position. And X and Y will roughly correspond to values equating to the price at which you placed your stop. Even without doing the anaysis, which I did a few years ago to be sure, the idea they can have a net benefit is illogical if random betting isn't also profitable, which it isn't.

Just keep in mind that just because "traders" have lots of bets on a race and punters usually have one, it doesn't mean you should doubt your own common sense when it comes to betting. I've no doubt at all you didn't know that random bets would be unprofitable, the only problem was not being reminded that "traders" are just placing bets that win or lose like everyone elses bets do so all the usual common sense still applies.

[Michael5482]

a few trades have been in profit then reversed and hedged for a loss so will amend the trailing stop

Stop losses are a mathematical waste of time. They're basically a random bet and those are 0ev at best, worse if you cross the spread to do it. When I say waste of time, they'll smooth your varience but they won't help your month end numbers one iota.

There will be X amount that hit your stop and keep going and Y amount that hit your stop and then return to a better position. And X and Y will roughly correspond to values equating to the price at which you placed your stop. Even without doing the anaysis, which I did a few years ago to be sure, the idea they can have a net benefit is illogical if random betting isn't also profitable, which it isn't.

Just keep in mind that just because "traders" have lots of bets on a race and punters usually have one, it doesn't mean you should doubt your own common sense when it comes to betting. I've no doubt at all you didn't know that random bets would be unprofitable, the only problem was not being reminded that "traders" are just placing bets that win or lose like everyone elses bets do so all the usual common sense still applies.

Thanks for the stop loss info it'll save me checking something that's already been covered!

[MemphisFlash]

Ready for the day

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[The Silk Run]

Kool. And, Happy Easter MEMF, and all you beautiful Angel's
Minnie LAI

[The Silk Run]

Ready for the day


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I have FOUR Instances in operation today. A recent addition is a Timeform collaboration under LIVE testing ....

[firlandsfarm]

a few trades have been in profit then reversed and hedged for a loss so will amend the trailing stop

Stop losses are a mathematical waste of time. They're basically a random bet and those are 0ev at best, worse if you cross the spread to do it. When I say waste of time, they'll smooth your varience but they won't help your month end numbers one iota.

There will be X amount that hit your stop and keep going and Y amount that hit your stop and then return to a better position. And X and Y will roughly correspond to values equating to the price at which you placed your stop. Even without doing the anaysis, which I did a few years ago to be sure, the idea they can have a net benefit is illogical if random betting isn't also profitable, which it isn't.

Just keep in mind that just because "traders" have lots of bets on a race and punters usually have one, it doesn't mean you should doubt your own common sense when it comes to betting. I've no doubt at all you didn't know that random bets would be unprofitable, the only problem was not being reminded that "traders" are just placing bets that win or lose like everyone elses bets do so all the usual common sense still applies.

Congratulations Shaun, I've often thought this but rarely found anything in support. I stopped using stop-losses ages ago because as you say they are not judgement bets, in the main they are driven by the fear of losing.

[wearthefoxhat]

Hi, does anyone successfully dutch greyhounds? Initially I seem to have started alright, after 2000 races I noticed over all losses from certain tracks so removed those tracks but now not going so well. Could someone possibly give me some pointers? Or just a good book or video starting point? Happy to learn just a bit lost!

IMO tracks are important when you understand their idiosyncrasies. Using the Timeform Racecards info;
https://www.timeform.com/greyhound-raci ... -17/978007

Sunderland

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Pelaw Grange

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In the case of dutching, it's important to define if the favourite is value in the race and is suited by the track profile. Then eliminate other runners using various other factors/data, until you are left with 1 or 2 dangers to the value favourite.

This dutching approach can also be used on horse racing, although there's more data points to consider.

[Michael5482]

Ready for the day


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Superb work on the sheet Something to aspire to!

[MemphisFlash]

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nice and steady day on the dogs