Not sure about Memphis but even bets going into the sp pool occassioanlly aren't matched on the dogs because the pool is small. Any liability you get stuck with wins/loses at the expected rate so it makes no difference to the medium/long term pl.
Today's Greyhounds
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Are you placing 'Back' and 'Lay' bets on multiple selections in an event or just one selection ?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 11:13 pmNot sure about Memphis but even bets going into the sp pool occassioanlly aren't matched on the dogs because the pool is small. Any liability you get stuck with wins/loses at the expected rate so it makes no difference to the medium/long term pl.
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ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:27 amAvg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.
Last edited by Bobajob on Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Can you explain in detail the timing and criteria you use for each back / lay / green bet please ?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:27 amAvg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.
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I might be wrong but I highly doubt Tom is going to broadcast that anywhere.foxwood wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 3:53 pmCan you explain in detail the timing and criteria you use for each back / lay / green bet please ?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 11:27 amAvg about 3.2 dogs per races slightly more on aus dogs as many races there have 8 dogs. Backs or lays, could be either.
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Wow that's a lot, so far so good with my approach, I'm sure if I put the effort in I could have many more bets and be more proffitable.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:00 amThe addition of grey matter definately improves your edge considerably, but I replace that with brute force and settle for a (much) smaller edge. I do about 900 uk and aus dogs and horses a day by comparison.
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Good to hear you're making progress, scale helps in many ways and there's 1000s of dogs running every day, The main reason is the speed at which to accrue information. If you're just backing a few favourites it might take a month to do enough to prove anything but at scale that becomes 1 day. It also usually generates more commision in relation to the gross amount which can help to avoid future PC liability, and.... it also generates more Betfair points which result in better discounts all of the higher rate Australian markets.
Profit is edge * stake * opportunity. Edges are small and stakes don't scale very far so you need as much opportunity as possible. Every selection in every market is tradable.
Especially if you were laying the heavy odds on dogs at Donny the other day
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It's an unpredictable cycle that's persisted for years. Laying favs looks good so people gradually start doing it, that eventually moves the odds so it fails, and then people gradually move to backing instead and the same happens that side. Unfortunately it's not possible to predict, I've seen cycles take a month or 6 months going back over the last 6yrs info.. All sports are like that. Well that's laying everything at SP so as usual it's value vs SP that makes money if you do them all, or being selective and finding SP value
Just to pick this up whereas you would expect some natural variation day to day, track to track. Grade to grade etc you would expect these to more or less balance themselves out .
As it is, it's proving very hard, and lay prices are not the only criterion I use in placing bets, to be blunt I try to work out the possibility of some scrimaging too.
After some 14 years of matched betting, arbing, shop arbing, value betting etc,it just goes to show that any edge you identify gets eroded over time.
As it is, it's proving very hard, and lay prices are not the only criterion I use in placing bets, to be blunt I try to work out the possibility of some scrimaging too.
After some 14 years of matched betting, arbing, shop arbing, value betting etc,it just goes to show that any edge you identify gets eroded over time.
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I do something like this on the dogs, offering the BACK/LAY prices in the columns to the right.
By product of that is I take the lowest lay price when applying it to Horse Racing and lay the field at that price or close to in BF price. Not all tracks though, there or 4/5 where it works well due to camera angles and distance to the finish line etc.
By product of that is I take the lowest lay price when applying it to Horse Racing and lay the field at that price or close to in BF price. Not all tracks though, there or 4/5 where it works well due to camera angles and distance to the finish line etc.
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