Today's Cricket

[Emmson]

Womens World T20 semi Windies v NZ is

VOLUMINOUS

&

LIQUID

47 Million Matched

and its not properly over yet.

[Emmson]

Womens World T20 semi Windies v NZ is

VOLUMINOUS

&

LIQUID

47 Million Matched

and its not properly over yet.

52.3 Million Matched at suspension

NZ lasses into final where they face the Saffer lasses

[Kai]

VOLUMINOUS

Why does that sound like a Roman general that conquered Gaul or something

Maximus Decimus Voluminous

Learned a new word today

[Rob51852]

Nicolas Pooran when he's on he is pure box office.

Sensational tonight.

Can’t get a handle on these 100 games, is this year normal? I am getting loads of value but pnl does not align

Hi Liam, how do you determine value?

[LinusP]

Hi Liam, how do you determine value?

Its an interesting question when it comes to sports inplay, unlike preplay we don't have a starting price however there are a few other options. You can obviously just look at the final result and use profit but on sports like cricket it's not ideal due to the low number of games resulting in pnl taking a while to settle etc. One option is to compare the price matched against a price into the future, ie in horse racing this might be 5/10 seconds but in cricket it could be 5/10 minutes

Code: Select all

ev = (1/future_price) - (1/price_matched)

Another option is to use the price at the end of the innings, I really like doing this as this as it is a very accurate price and you don't even need that much of a sample to get a good idea of if you are getting unlucky or if your strategy is sht.

Code: Select all

ev = (1/innings_end_price) - (1/price_matched)

Here is an example of my profit against ev for a strategy (first innings) this month using `innings_end_price`, beautiful.

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.43.36.png

[henbet22]

Hi Liam, how do you determine value?

Its an interesting question when it comes to sports inplay, unlike preplay we don't have a starting price however there are a few other options. You can obviously just look at the final result and use profit but on sports like cricket it's not ideal due to the low number of games resulting in pnl taking a while to settle etc. One option is to compare the price matched against a price into the future, ie in horse racing this might be 5/10 seconds but in cricket it could be 5/10 minutes

Code: Select all

ev = (1/future_price) - (1/price_matched)

Another option is to use the price at the end of the innings, I really like doing this as this as it is a very accurate price and you don't even need that much of a sample to get a good idea of if you are getting unlucky or if your strategy is sht.

Code: Select all

ev = (1/innings_end_price) - (1/price_matched)

Here is an example of my profit against ev for a strategy (first innings) this month using `innings_end_price`, beautiful.

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.43.36.png

A graph of beauty!!
Is this straight betting or trading?

[LinusP]

A graph of beauty!!
Is this straight betting or trading?

I only bet where I believe to have ev, nevergreen.

[henbet22]

Thank you for the answer. I think I need to have a re-think.

[Rob51852]

Hi Liam, how do you determine value?

Its an interesting question when it comes to sports inplay, unlike preplay we don't have a starting price however there are a few other options. You can obviously just look at the final result and use profit but on sports like cricket it's not ideal due to the low number of games resulting in pnl taking a while to settle etc. One option is to compare the price matched against a price into the future, ie in horse racing this might be 5/10 seconds but in cricket it could be 5/10 minutes

Code: Select all

ev = (1/future_price) - (1/price_matched)

Another option is to use the price at the end of the innings, I really like doing this as this as it is a very accurate price and you don't even need that much of a sample to get a good idea of if you are getting unlucky or if your strategy is sht.

Code: Select all

ev = (1/innings_end_price) - (1/price_matched)

Here is an example of my profit against ev for a strategy (first innings) this month using `innings_end_price`, beautiful.

Screenshot 2024-10-23 at 10.43.36.png

Thanks Liam. That’s given me lots to think about.

[Lynskey888]

I traded the Guyana vs Jamaica Super50 match this afternoon and built up a small but worthwhile green over the first few hours of play. The rain came on with eight overs of the first innings remaining. I turned my attention to the completed match market.

Given how well the outfield stood up to rain earlier this week, and having looked at various forecasts/rain radars, I entered on the side of a completed game. Not quite at the top, but I was happy with my position.

The umpires came out to inspect the pitch a few times. The sky was brightening. Unfortunately, that was a relative measure - it was still quite overcast. In the absence of information from commentary or online, I removed liability, ending up with a tiny 10p green.

But what’s this I see shortly after closing my position? The groundsmen are going out to the covers and the market seems unsure what’s happening. I enter again on the back side of a completed game. 60 seconds later the market is positive the match is a no result and I’ve lost my stake.

Now the amounts involved here are tiny compared to the greens and reds you fellows post (and - mercifully - to my overall profit for 12 months). However, I am well and truly seething about this one, so I’m posting this on my phone as an alternative to opening my laptop to look for a ladder to trade. Not a good idea while I’m in this mood. Hopefully I’ll be a little less stupid in the morning.

[jamesedwards]

I traded the Guyana vs Jamaica Super50 match this afternoon and built up a small but worthwhile green over the first few hours of play. The rain came on with eight overs of the first innings remaining. I turned my attention to the completed match market.

Given how well the outfield stood up to rain earlier this week, and having looked at various forecasts/rain radars, I entered on the side of a completed game. Not quite at the top, but I was happy with my position.

The umpires came out to inspect the pitch a few times. The sky was brightening. Unfortunately, that was a relative measure - it was still quite overcast. In the absence of information from commentary or online, I removed liability, ending up with a tiny 10p green.

But what’s this I see shortly after closing my position? The groundsmen are going out to the covers and the market seems unsure what’s happening. I enter again on the back side of a completed game. 60 seconds later the market is positive the match is a no result and I’ve lost my stake.

Now the amounts involved here are tiny compared to the greens and reds you fellows post (and - mercifully - to my overall profit for 12 months). However, I am well and truly seething about this one, so I’m posting this on my phone as an alternative to opening my laptop to look for a ladder to trade. Not a good idea while I’m in this mood. Hopefully I’ll be a little less stupid in the morning.

It's great to recognise this and it sounds like you will learn from the mistake. Never trade when you're giving away a significant knowledge disadvantage. There will be people who knew exactly what was going on mopping up all the value of those who didn't.

[Lynskey888]

Yeah, lesson learned as far as the market is concerned, James.

The other thing this experience has taught me is that my longest, most substantial posts on here tend to occur after galling mistakes. The forum’s become my confessional.

[Kai]

I entered on the side of a completed game. Not quite at the top, but I was happy with my position.

Think lay side is more fun on that one

However, I am well and truly seething about this one, so I’m posting this on my phone as an alternative to opening my laptop to look for a ladder to trade. Not a good idea while I’m in this mood.

Mindset switch/tweak from earning to learning would go hard

[Lynskey888]

Think lay side is more fun on that one.

If I had followed my original plan (to trade the ladder based on the orders coming in) I may well have ended up on the lay side. On reflection, I dived in a bit too quickly.

I’d deal with the whole market differently, but I think some of those changes in approach ought to have been evident without paying for a lesson with a red. That was the source of my annoyance.

I’m philosophical about it all now and pleased that I stepped away from the computer while I was in a poor frame of mind.

[Kai]

No use beating yourself up pal

Market will happily do that for you already

Lessons are probably more memorable if they had a cost attached, everyone needs reminding sometimes