Very interesting, definite strong suspicions of a match fix there. I've looked up sports fixing on the internet, so far as I can tell, occasionally it does happen (mostly in lower grade events), but thankfully it does seem quite rare (at least, that are very few actual cases where match fixing was proven in court).
To fix a soccer match you really need the referee to be in on it, and that's what could have happened here , the penalty was clearly nonsensical. As far as I can tell, the two teams were facing relegation, so it was in their interest to arrange for a draw to stay off the bottom of their league table.
Always remember, there's more to the way the world works than statistics. For example, he who controls the underlying causal factors for an event, can bend the odds at will, as any cheat can attest to - there are always factors that markets don't capture, always there are underlying causal factors that transcend simple probabilistic analysis.
Damn, I'm getting philosophical on your arses
