People find an edge betting on american football, accounts get limited:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6091 ... ookmakers/
beating the bookies using data science
Saw this on hacker news, you can see the latest opportunities here:
http://128.199.65.226
https://github.com/Lisandro79/BeatTheBookie
http://128.199.65.226
https://github.com/Lisandro79/BeatTheBookie
Somewhat amusing they would do all that work without realising it was useless if you couldn't get on.marksmeets302 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:06 pmPeople find an edge betting on american football, accounts get limited:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6091 ... ookmakers/
Love it and love this forum for sharing and pointing out these things.LinusP wrote: ↑Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:27 pmSaw this on hacker news, you can see the latest opportunities here:
http://128.199.65.226
https://github.com/Lisandro79/BeatTheBookie
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I used to be part of a horse racing system similar to the above. It was really quite profitable but a nightmare having to source new bookies accounts and managing your bank. It was quite amazing to see some bookies restricting after 2 or 3 bets!
I may not be making any money on the exchange yet, but one of the big things that drew me in was the lack of restrictions.
I may not be making any money on the exchange yet, but one of the big things that drew me in was the lack of restrictions.
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Goes to show how it isn't finding value/edge that can be problematic in betting/trading - but instead having the possible mechanisms to maintain it all.
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As said above, rather pointless 'science' if there isn't the chance to actually place the bets!
https://www.newscientist.com/article/21 ... inst-them/
I haven't read the NS for years, but I remember the quality of the writing was better.
For example:
IMO - that quote from the article is tosh. Odds of 2 to 1 mean that the bookies want to discourage bets to balance their book, as much as (or more than) the fact that they think the horse actually has a 2 to 1 chance of winning.NewScientist wrote:Mean odds of 2 to 1 suggest the bookies collectively think this reflects fair odds for that outcome.
No?
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Hello there,
Mathematicians had already developed bookie-beating models that attempt to predict the outcome of sports matches, but they are difficult to devise and don’t always perform consistently. Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues wanted to know if a more direct approach would work: using the bookmakers’ own odds against them.
Mathematicians had already developed bookie-beating models that attempt to predict the outcome of sports matches, but they are difficult to devise and don’t always perform consistently. Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues wanted to know if a more direct approach would work: using the bookmakers’ own odds against them.
- SeaHorseRacing
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Funnily enough...
There is a few online tipping/system sites that are so highly over bet that if you bet opposite to what they advice you can make a profit.
I would argue that the majority of all horses in the top 3 betting of a racing market are way over bet and in a lot of circumstances just betting every other runner in the race at sp is profitable.
Picking winners is pointless, it really is.
It is all about price, and some never, ever grasp that.
Backing a horse at 2/1 when it has an sp of Evens can still be a very bad bet too. And a lot of the times 2/1 is still very poor value.
Price, price, price and nothing else will make you profitable betting on sports.
There is a few online tipping/system sites that are so highly over bet that if you bet opposite to what they advice you can make a profit.
I would argue that the majority of all horses in the top 3 betting of a racing market are way over bet and in a lot of circumstances just betting every other runner in the race at sp is profitable.
Picking winners is pointless, it really is.
It is all about price, and some never, ever grasp that.
Backing a horse at 2/1 when it has an sp of Evens can still be a very bad bet too. And a lot of the times 2/1 is still very poor value.
Price, price, price and nothing else will make you profitable betting on sports.
- SeaHorseRacing
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- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.
The only way you can profit long term is through value and watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.
When in reality you just want to take a value price above the events actually chances of happening.