2000 Guineas In Running Trade

[Stewart]

First off to all newbies please make sure you manage your stakes accordingly and as this is a risker in-play trade stakes should be kept low and within your bank staking plan.

My opinion of today's big race is that at some stage St Nicholas Abbey will trade a lot bigger in play than he will start as SP.

There has been a lot of Hyperbole re this horse and the press are always looking for the next Pegasus and until a horse has proved himself at 3, then the 2yo career doesn't mean too much. All in all the horse maybe a great but this is a very competitive race and is trading a way too short of a price compared to his realistic chance.

Given the press this morning and the connections it could be that the horse may even go odds on.

Now the subjective part - I will lay St Nicholas Abbey just prior to the off (hopefully with the profit of my pre race trading!) and will look to check out around 3.0. You need to decide, if this is for you, and if so (without being too greedy) what is an acceptable risk for you.

Remember the horse can still win and we make a profit, we are just predicting that at some stage the odds will drift.

[mulberryhawk]

If Sir Nic travels as well as he did in the racing post trophy last yr, he may not necessarily trade bigger in running

Its all pretty subjective but I think your strategy is not a bad one considering the unknowns and imponderables involved. Remember rainbow view and fantasia in last years English and French 1000 guinneas! Both started odds on only to disappoint having failed to reproduce their 2yr old form so good luck with your trade.

[Mug]

Nice trade!

[JollyGreen]

Nice one Stewart...I did mention your trade in my post where I said I didn't think you would need any luck.

Once again the hype about a potential superstar brought about a crazy price that unfortunately too many people were willing to take. That horse was a 5/1 shot all day long!

[Stewart]

Thanks Jolly Green.

Also read your post and agreed with it all - we have roughly the same thought process when it comes to betting, although I tend to trade more now than bet.

To win the Guineas, as you know, you need very good tactical speed - you only need to review the sprints to see that not many front runners come back at the Rowley Mile. And as a horse with a 1m4f pedigree, there aren't that many that can win Group 1 races at 8f, 10f and 14f - Sea the Stars, Nashwan and Dancing Brave notable top top class exceptions. All had great tactical speed.

But above all that, hype is a great place to start when having a bet/taking a view in a race. Hindsight is a great thing but I kept placing and cancelling my exit trade only to put it back in - anyway 3 figures green is not too bad

Hope a few others were on