1000 Guineas - Race Preview

[JollyGreen]

There is a totally different makeup to this race and that is clearly reflected in the market.

Unfortunately we don't have a real "hype" horse to oppose today. There are a couple of horses that seem to be getting attention and they are Pollenator and Seta. I am not sure if Seta's hype is down to the Fallon factor or down to the trainer Cumani who has raved about the horse. She bombed on her return but apparently that defeat was down to her growing and maturing. This is a problem with horses from 2 to 3 - you never quite know which ones will progress and which will regress or stagnate. Of course they are all highly rated but finding the ones that move up from 2 to 3 means you have to take a lot on trust and also have a guess which isn't great for form students!

First there is another concern to factor in; the going. They have had some rain since yesterday so that will make punters wary and cause some to scramble for the form book and look if their fancy handles the going and/or trying to find horses with either form on this going or a pedigree that suggests they'll handle it.

Let's stick with the main protagonists according to the betting

Seta - Clearly held in high regard by connections. Her first run was impressive but it wasn't that special in terms of time/rating. It is also hard to determine what she beat that day. Her last run was forgivable in my eyes. She had clearly grown and perhaps she wasn't quite ready for the run; I can only speculate on that. She didn't settle from the start which suggests she needs cover, something she'll get today. I cannot see anything in her action to suggest this ground will inconvenience her although I don't think she would want it to soft. Her breeding looks speedy being by Pivotal but there are stamina influences in the sire and dam lines - more than enough to suggest a mile will suit. If I have one concern it's that she was precocious at 2 and may not be quite so good at 3. Quite simply her early maturity as a 2yo gave her an edge and that same edge may have been eroded now that others have matured and caught her up physically. That is not a major concern but it is an itch that I cannot scratch!!

Music Show seems to be too short in price for me. her last run was impressive and I admit I took an interest in her that day. She was on the inside and had to switched wide around the field to come with a late run. Fallon had to keep her up to her work to see out the 7f that day and my concern is will she get the 1m today? If the ground was still fast then I would have been less concerned but with the rain I think it will be too much to ask of her. Her breeding also screams speed and I think 7f is probably her best trip. It's a tough call but at the odds I think she is opposable. In fact when I started this review she was 8.00 and now she is 10.5 so somebody else is thinking along the same lines.

Pollenator - This has been the subject of gossip of late and the price has shrunk due to the rumours she is catching pigeons on the gallops. I feel she is way too short and I would not want to trust gossip, I want to see her race with my own eyes and record the time before I will part with my hard earned. I dare say many will think the easing of the ground will suit her because of her pedigree. She is by Motivator and his sire was Montjeu (Remember St Nicholas Abbey. They will say that the soft ground will low her stamina to come into play but it rarely works like that. I am not sure she will have the speed to lay up with them and at 9.40 she doesn't represent value to me.

Rumoush - This is one to keep an eye on, I just wish there was a bigger price on offer. At 9.4 she is borderline to me. I read in the Racing Post they are worried about her dropping back to 1m but I don't share that view. She is by Rahy out of a Mr Prospector mare so this trip should be well within her range. She is also a half sister to last year's winner Ghanaati. She has clearly trained on and her profile looks progressive especially after such a good reappearance run. I think there will be money for this filly and she's one I would want onside!

To me the standout entry is Special Duty from France. Perhaps they can pull off a French double with the 1000 and 2000 Guineas? This filly looks the likely winner and a deserved favourite. I know she has drifted slightly but I can see this being supported back into favouritism later. Her results are outstanding and far better than anything else in the field has achieved. She is from an American Pedigree that seems well suited to this distance. My only small concern is that I wouldn't want it to turn out too soft as that may not suit her. You can forget her last run as she clearly wasn't fit and the soft ground didn't help. I see her as the likely winner of this race but I already have a nice each way ante-post voucher so will not be getting involved today.

It's not so easy as yesterday where the favourite was a mental price. I think Music Show and Pollenator are opposable and Rumoush and Special Duty are two to keep on your side.

Good luck to all that play.

[Bet Angel]

Drama, rank outsider could lose it to special duty in a stewards and by a nose.

Most interesting thing for me was the drift on Seta, kicked off by it playing around in the paddock.

100502 - 1520 - 2000 Guineas - Seta.png

[andyfuller]

The stewards has proven absolutely great for trading, though I think I will take my green and run now

[Zenyatta]

Is Jolly ever wrong? This guy is a walking cash dispenser Taking his advice, I unloaded on 'Special Duty' and sure enough, picked up yet another 20 ticks (50% profit margin). See how effective knowing the form is? Gold!

[JollyGreen]

Is Jolly ever wrong? This guy is a walking cash dispenser Taking his advice, I unloaded on 'Special Duty' and sure enough, picked up yet another 20 ticks (50% profit margin). See how effective knowing the form is? Gold!

Thank you my friend, very kind words and I am genuinely pleased that you made some cash!

Actually I am a lying down cash dispenser if truth be told. I am still feeling like death warmed up so I am led in bed with my laptop and the TV on in the background!

[Mug]

Excellent advice again, If I ever meet you I will buy you a few beers.

[JollyGreen]

Excellent advice again, If I ever meet you I will buy you a few beers.

Well if we ever have the Bet Angel bash I might hold you to that