Redcar 3:50 - two horses to note

[JollyGreen]

Typical that once again two buses have come along at once!

In the 3:50 Redcar I have Piazza San Pietro and Jimwil as horses to follow

Piazza San Pietro caught my eye when he ran in a sprint at Bath on 25/04/10. He was available at double figures but received a fair amount of support and halved in price. He was badly hampered about 1.5 furlongs out and the jockey had to accept he wasn't going to win. They then entered him at Chepstow shortly after that race but the ground didn't suit they so they withdrew him. He returns today on his favoured Good to Firm ground and the booking of Jamie Spencer is interesting. He has drifted this morning but that never really bothers me and I took most of the money on offer at 8.80...sorry This horse can either go from the front or be held up just off the pace. He is on a competitive handicap mark and could go close today.

Jimwil is the other horse and if you look at his recent form you would think I was mad for suggesting this horse. Unfortunately this horse is a bit hard to place because he seems to need 7f on good to firm ground and a big field. He seems to be one of those horses who likes to be buried amongst horses and then run past them at the end. He has won at Redcar over this distance at 20/1 and came 2nd at 14/1 when granted today's conditions. The bad news is that the price is now only 5.8 and I had been hoping for 9.00-10.00

Jimwil travels well but he needs to be cajoled through a race. If they get him relaxed and travelling today then he could laugh at this lot. He tends to travel well in his races so this could an opportunity for the BTL players. If you watch the race you will have to endure squeaky bum time until about 1-1.5 furlongs from him. He likes to run with the pack and then his jockey will try and nurse him to the front!

It is a real shame that they are both entered in the same race but there is nothing I can do about that. I have had a small Dutch on them and will decide if I trade out in running or not. I may decide to trade out of Jimwil cruises up at 1f from home just in case he decides to be stubborn today and tries to stay with all his mates. The race could work out okay for us because they may try and make all on Piazza San Petro so it could be a nice profit all round...here's hoping!

Good luck if you play

[Iron]

Hi JollyGreen

In light of that, do you think that the current favourite Orangeleg is a good lay?

Jeff

Typical that once again two buses have come along at once!

In the 3:50 Redcar I have Piazza San Pietro and Jimwil as horses to follow

Piazza San Pietro caught my eye when he ran in a sprint at Bath on 25/04/10. He was available at double figures but received a fair amount of support and halved in price. He was badly hampered about 1.5 furlongs out and the jockey had to accept he wasn't going to win. They then entered him at Chepstow shortly after that race but the ground didn't suit they so they withdrew him. He returns today on his favoured Good to Firm ground and the booking of Jamie Spencer is interesting. He has drifted this morning but that never really bothers me and I took most of the money on offer at 8.80...sorry This horse can either go from the front or be held up just off the pace. He is on a competitive handicap mark and could go close today.

Jimwil is the other horse and if you look at his recent form you would think I was mad for suggesting this horse. Unfortunately this horse is a bit hard to place because he seems to need 7f on good to firm ground and a big field. He seems to be one of those horses who likes to be buried amongst horses and then run past them at the end. He has won at Redcar over this distance at 20/1 and came 2nd at 14/1 when granted today's conditions. The bad news is that the price is now only 5.8 and I had been hoping for 9.00-10.00

Jimwil travels well but he needs to be cajoled through a race. If they get him relaxed and travelling today then he could laugh at this lot. He tends to travel well in his races so this could an opportunity for the BTL players. If you watch the race you will have to endure squeaky bum time until about 1-1.5 furlongs from him. He likes to run with the pack and then his jockey will try and nurse him to the front!

It is a real shame that they are both entered in the same race but there is nothing I can do about that. I have had a small Dutch on them and will decide if I trade out in running or not. I may decide to trade out of Jimwil cruises up at 1f from home just in case he decides to be stubborn today and tries to stay with all his mates. The race could work out okay for us because they may try and make all on Piazza San Petro so it could be a nice profit all round...here's hoping!

Good luck if you play

[LeTiss]

Orangeleg has been a real steamer this morning

A tremendous trade for someone

[JollyGreen]

Orangeleg is a hard horse to assess because he appears to have training issues. I would guess he doesn't stand much racing because he is lightly raced and clearly needs a break between his races. He won a weak race at Lingfield in a time that was nothing special. he looked a good winner and it seemed he would be able to defy a penalty. He was put up from a mark of 52 to 60 and he bombed next time out at Wolverhampton in a similar contest.

I think he was flattered by his run at Lingfield because he settled in behind runners that went far too quick. They were all tying up and he then went past them. This can make him look to be running faster than he actually was and the clock would back up that view.

Would I lay him? Well I like to have form that I have viewed and would prefer to stick with the horses I mentioned. There are clearly concerns about Orangeleg with his need for a break and I also think he has more stamina than his pedigree suggests. That means he needs other to go off really fast so that he can cut them down at the finish. He may win but I reckon this is a "tipster" horse hence the price drifting and then collapsing. I will stick with my two and look to trade out for a profit.

[Iron]

Thanks JollyGreen

BTW, you really know your stuff! Do you have a background in racing?

Maybe you should ask Channel 4 if they need any new commentators, now Big Mac's schedule has been reassessed!

Jeff

Orangeleg is a hard horse to assess because he appears to have training issues. I would guess he doesn't stand much racing because he is lightly raced and clearly needs a break between his races. He won a weak race at Lingfield in a time that was nothing special. he looked a good winner and it seemed he would be able to defy a penalty. He was put up from a mark of 52 to 60 and he bombed next time out at Wolverhampton in a similar contest.

I think he was flattered by his run at Lingfield because he settled in behind runners that went far too quick. They were all tying up and he then went past them. This can make him look to be running faster than he actually was and the clock would back up that view.

Would I lay him? Well I like to have form that I have viewed and would prefer to stick with the horses I mentioned. There are clearly concerns about Orangeleg with his need for a break and I also think he has more stamina than his pedigree suggests. That means he needs other to go off really fast so that he can cut them down at the finish. He may win but I reckon this is a "tipster" horse hence the price drifting and then collapsing. I will stick with my two and look to trade out for a profit.

[JollyGreen]

Thanks JollyGreen

BTW, you really know your stuff! Do you have a background in racing?

Maybe you should ask Channel 4 if they need any new commentators, now Big Mac's schedule has been reassessed!

Jeff

I don't think picking horses out from the age of 3-4 counts as a background in racing I had a misspent youth watching my Granddad betting on the horses - he couldn't pick his nose so I thought there had to be a better way!

As for C4...don't you start, my wife said that

[Zenyatta]

I burst out laughing at a horse in the 3.20 at Redcar.

'Seven Of Diamonds', believe it or not, this horse has come fourth (4) in every single one of its starts (last six starts a row - a row of 4s).

[ba1000]

Hi JollyGreen

I know you're successful at what you do which is why I am trying to catch some of it

I know i'm a big boy now but I am confused:

My JollyGreen selection Wins +£5.51 (my liability here was £20)

My JollyGreen selection Losses -£30.00

Overall -£24.49

To have a punt or not to have a punt that is question.

(I know its a retorical question)

Thanks for the advice it is so useful to see how somebody weighs up a form based approach.

[JollyGreen]

Which two are you referring to that gave you -£24??

In the race this afternoon I tend to Dutch them both and trade out in running. For example if you wanted to win £20 you would need £4.37 @ 6.40 and 3.58 @ 7.80 respectively. You can increase or decrease the amounts to suit your bank.

On a trading perspective, keep an eye on the price of Orangeleg because if the money dries up you may catch a decent drift! It will probably keep bouncing off 6.00 but each time it gets back to that price, the chance of it breaking through increases and then it may keep going to 7 or 8....which would be nice

[ba1000]

Hi JollyGreen,

(Remember I have just tried two of your selections.)

Embsy Craig: +£5.51 on Friday

But then

Saturaday BTL I went for Back £30 @3.45 profit target for me was 3.15 I was commenting as it went in play that from the charts it had no hope Mahonia.

As I do not know your system I was just using the WIPE OUT principle which I saw on the BTL thread.

So that was just +5.51 - 30.00 = -£24.49 overall.

[JollyGreen]

Hi JollyGreen,

(Remember I have just tried two of your selections.)

Embsy Craig: +£5.51 on Friday

But then

Saturaday BTL I went for Back £30 @3.45 profit target for me was 3.15 I was commenting as it went in play that from the charts it had no hope Mahonia.

As I do not know your system I was just using the WIPE OUT principle which I saw on the BTL thread.

So that was just +5.51 - 30.00 = -£24.49 overall.

Okay I can see now. You were unlucky with Mahonia and so was I. The horse broke a blood vessel but he's fine. They are now trying to decide if he runs this summer or if they wait until the new season.

If I back a horse with a view to laying off in running, I MUST be able to see the TV pictures. I can race read quite well so I will know if I should cut and run or leave it longer. I do appreciate you can't do that so I suggest the following. Only allow yourself a certain level of loss - only you can sensibly decide what the amount should be. Then you must stick to it and whilst you will end up missing a few winners and will feel like cursing, it will also save you a lot of wipe outs. You should get TV pictures if I am honest.

Please remember this is not strictly trading and I don't want to encourage gambling (wipeout) but if you do go with form picks then profits are available. What is it they say on the TV adverts for financial products? "The value of your investment can go up or down and you may not get back the amount you started with"..........or something like that!!

[ba1000]

Hi JollyGreen,

(Glad to hear the horse is OK as I do not like to see any suffering of the horses.)

Please do NOT think I am complaining! I am most definitely NOT.

I really like the fact you have the guts to put yourself in full view! As I said I know you are successful.

The point you make is a good one - I was thinking as opposed to going for WIPE OUT - could a strategy be within a certain timeframe.

eg if the race lasts for example 1min 50secs then a BTL should happen within the first 30 secs for example ie it is a horse who likes to go out in front from the off. If it does not then get out.

As I said from reading the charts I could clearly see the horse had no hope.

[ba1000]

Thanks Zenyatta! I gambled and got +£8 for laying Seven of Diamonds!

[JollyGreen]

Well nothing we could do about that race. They seemed to go a bit slow at the start and a lot of horses were looking for cover. Piazza and Jimwil both need cover and the former didn't get it. The problem with Spencer is he tends to take it easy if he realises he isn't going to win. There will be races to be won with both of these.

On a race note, I think I may have to look carefully at some of the races as this turned out to be a poor choice. I knew it was competitive so perhaps I need to be more selective.

The cards today have been very poor and the results have reflected this. I have just been looking at the evening cards and I am waiting for a friend to call me from Towcester as he reckons there could be a bit of a move for one later.