Money back if your horse comes second
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mickypaul72
- Posts: 116
- Joined: Tue May 15, 2018 1:52 pm
I was looking to use the Betangel software to me me an edge to utilise the bookies offer where you get your money back if your horse comes second. I've had a degree of success with this by backing at the bookies and laying on the exchange and hoping that the nag comes second. Any ideas would be apprechiated tis a head sratcher for me.
Ok, the way i'm reading this is:
1. The horse comes 1st; you get the bookie winnnings and lose the BF lay (small net win or loss depending on the odds)
2. The horse comes second; you get your bookie stake back plus you win the lay (medium net gain)
3. The horse is unplaced; you don't get the bookie stake back but win the lay (small net win or loss depending on the odds)
Depending on how frequent these offers are and to what extent the nominated selection places second, then i prsonally don't see this as something that (at face value) is worth sweating too much over. If the offer is there, take it as worst case scenario is a small loss if the odds are not in your favour and/or the selection isn't placed.
in brief the edge appears at first reading to be quite thin as you only have one option to win and two to either lose or make pennies if the odds are in your favour.
1. The horse comes 1st; you get the bookie winnnings and lose the BF lay (small net win or loss depending on the odds)
2. The horse comes second; you get your bookie stake back plus you win the lay (medium net gain)
3. The horse is unplaced; you don't get the bookie stake back but win the lay (small net win or loss depending on the odds)
Depending on how frequent these offers are and to what extent the nominated selection places second, then i prsonally don't see this as something that (at face value) is worth sweating too much over. If the offer is there, take it as worst case scenario is a small loss if the odds are not in your favour and/or the selection isn't placed.
in brief the edge appears at first reading to be quite thin as you only have one option to win and two to either lose or make pennies if the odds are in your favour.
This is a classic matched betting scenario. It can definitely work but in the long run the bookies will stop giving you bonuses if you utilize it too much. But yes, back at bookie (usually first or second fav) and lay at exchange. When the horse you chooses comes in second you'll get the bonus at the bookie. Google matched betting for more info.
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spreadbetting
- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
There are formulas out there to work out the probabilities of being placed 2nd ,3rd etc from the win odds. Just look up the Harville formula for a rough idea get the odds of a second place. From there you can work out any edge you may have.