Horse Racing. Going in-play. Good or bad idea?

[Big Bad Barney]

Hello there,

I'm a bit of a noob, hopefully on way to non-noobiness.... Recently, I have been experimenting with taking my wins, but letting losses go in play. The theory being that, well, statistically, after say a million markets I should even out at a loss of 5% commission or what not. (Working on the assumption that the starting price reflects the true implied odds of a horse winning.)

Then again, I'll also lose more than 5%, due to betting at a lower return than the true implied odds.

I think that answers my own question. Yep its a bad idea.

Would you guys suggest that in-play trading should be treated completely differently to pre-off? And ALWAYS close off trades no matter the position? or are there any instances you guys would let it ride?

I'd be interested to hear others opinions or philosophies on the difference with in-play trading and pre-off strategies...

Thank you
John

[sniffer66]

Personally, I do the complete opposite. I've been burnt a few times taking a red in-play, trying to recover a loss.

So, now I tend not to green up when in profit pre-race and will only take it in play if no runner is in the red. I'll also mainly take it in-play on a longer race. 5-6 furlongs doesnt give you much time to react if things go against you.
Essentially I've earnt a free bet if everything is green and I'll look to improve on the profit if one of my profiting horses is doing well, watching the live feeds and monitoring the BA In-play Trader tool, greening up when I'm 20-30% more profitable. I rarely let the race finish before greening.

Just how I do it myself.

[Big Bad Barney]

Thanks Sniffer. Yeah, with some more contemplating than I had done when I posted, I would concur with that approach..it is the way to go.

Found this video earlier also -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUd7bcjmcPk ...It explains why you shouldnt be going in play pretty well...

The point he makes hadn't occured to me yet because I am only using $5 stakes...

In Australian racing, the book percentage in play is pretty terrible also...120%/80%

In-play is just a whole different ball game...

[Big Bad Barney]

As an aside,

This strategy is a reason one might go inplay
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fkRZHWSmbc

But as a general rule, I plan to get a tattoo on my forehead...

[Dallas]

The first and maybe most important rule for EVERY pre-off trader is NEVER EVER take a pre-off trade in-play to try and recover al loss, and that applies to every sport not just racing - it will always end with a far larger one in the end and has ruined more people than anything else over the years (tons of threads on here about it).

In-play trading is perfectly fine IF it's planned and that's your strategy - but never as a way to recover a pre-off trade that's not panned out, just take the loss and move on. Or sooner or later you'll be moving on from trading as you'll have no bank/s left.

[Kai]

Would you guys suggest that in-play trading should be treated completely differently to pre-off? And ALWAYS close off trades no matter the position? or are there any instances you guys would let it ride?

To be perfectly honest those questions paint a pretty bad picture on how your trading looks like. Letting bad prerace trades go inplay has to be the #1 reason why people struggle with racing in general, it's been discussed to death on this forum and everywhere else and there is a very clear answer. The only reason why you're going inplay is to avoid taking losses in prerace, which means that you're unable to accept losses in general, which then means that you're unable to trade at all. Because losses are a normal part of trading and the sooner you realize that the better, your only goal as a trader is to have more wins than losses so that you can pocket the difference between them, simple as that.

No matter how good you are at reading the races and managing your positions you will always have losses, so learning how to accept them is something that you need to work on, instead of working on loss chasing strategies which is just beating around the bush and avoiding the real problem that you're having.

I'd be interested to hear others opinions or philosophies on the difference with in-play trading and pre-off strategies...

There are many ways to trade both prerace and inplay but those are 2 very different markets and they are not actually that much related. You should only trade inplay if you have an edge there, otherwise it makes no sense trading it. But this thread is not about the differences about prerace vs inplay, it's about your inability to accept losses.

[TipTopTrader]

If you don't beat the BetFair SP, you're getting your money in bad. So a losing trade, will always be worse then SP. The best part is that in Australia the comission is higher, Vic 6% SA 6% WA is 8% and good old NSW is 10%.

Even no commission.Taking the entry price on losing trades and running them as bets, you will lose long term.

[ShaunWhite]

The theory being that, well, statistically, after say a million markets I should even out at a loss of 5% commission or what not. (Working on the assumption that the starting price reflects the true implied odds of a horse winning.)

1. Your bets aren't at sp, you're showing a loss at the start so you're getting worse than sp. You'll lose that 5% plus what your loss was at the start.
2. If you're trading at scale there a certain amount of truth in efficiency, but letting a few a day run will expose you to a huge amount of variance. There no number of races be it 10 or a million that assures a breakeven.
3. If this was a simple way to reduce all loses to 5% it would be common practice and it isn't.

[TipTopTrader]

After rereading your post I realized you answered your own question. Its all hard, inplay, prerace, punting, horses and different sports.Aus inplay market pools are small.Prerace you can use bigger stakes and not have to worry about getting matched.

[weemac]

I'd estimate that 17 of my 20 worst ever losses have come as a result of letting a failed trade go in running unplanned.

[Euler]

It's all about payoff and risk.

If you are trying to get a one tick profit and then let it go inplay to try and recover a position, you are right royally stuffed in the long term. As your potential loss when it goes wrong is way bigger than any profit you could get.

However, if you have a strategy where you take a position pre-off and the counter position is filled inplay according to some exactly criteria then it's valid.

But it's the issue of trying to escape a loss that will kill you. You need a structured trading plan and then execute against that flawlessly in order to profit in the long term.

[Big Bad Barney]

To be perfectly honest those questions paint a pretty bad picture on how your trading looks like. Letting bad prerace trades go inplay has to be the #1 reason why people struggle with racing in general, it's been discussed to death on this forum and everywhere else and there is a very clear answer. The only reason why you're going inplay is to avoid taking losses in prerace, which means that you're unable to accept losses in general, which then means that you're unable to trade at all. Because losses are a normal part of trading and the sooner you realize that the better, your only goal as a trader is to have more wins than losses so that you can pocket the difference between them, simple as that.

Thanks Kai, yeah, well, I want to in the long run be a automation guy because I struggle a bit with discipline. I'm only on $5 or $10 stakes at the moment, so I don't feel fear of loss yet. I envisage that it will be another hurdle when I start increasing stakes...

As an example, a year or two back when I thought martingaling was a decent idea, I could never have the balls to follow through with it, lol...when the stakes started getting bigger, I'd start abandoning the plan...(which is worse than following the plan even if it is a dodgy plan)

But yeah, for a while there I figured I was being logical letting things go in play....but I see that was bad judgement now...

[Big Bad Barney]

Found this video earlier also -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUd7bcjmcPk ...It explains why you shouldnt be going in play pretty well...

I should also elaborate on this video for any other noobie that comes along. I forget that people aren't in my head sometimes. Basically, the thing is you are using large stakes to achieve small profits. As soon as you let large stakes go in play you expose yourself to losing large amounts because you are no longer working on the principle of small profits from large amounts.

Anyway, that's a good video I think anyway. Something I didn't pick up because I am still on small stakes. Thanks Peter!

[to75ne]

As an example, a year or two back when I thought martingaling was a decent idea, I could never have the balls to follow through with it, lol...when the stakes started getting bigger, I'd start abandoning the plan...(which is worse than following the plan even if it is a dodgy plan)

you dont need balls to follow through a martingale staking plan, just plain old stupidity, if you ever did the best thing you could have done would have been abandoning the plan, the worse thing would have been increasing stakes.

your thinking is arse about face.

[Big Bad Barney]

you dont need balls to follow through a martingale staking plan, just plain old stupidity, if you ever did the best thing you could have done would have been abandoning the plan, the worse thing would have been increasing stakes.

your thinking is arse about face.

heh, yes you do...i'm not arguing martingaling is a good idea....you only abandon the plan once you wake up to the stupid, but you should always follow your original plan to its conclusion....

Even if there is no house edge...presume you are the house with the edge.....it takes psychological fortitude to continue doubling your stakes when bad runs come...

That's all...