Betfair newbie questions

[ken1921]

Hi

I'm fairly new to Betfair and finding my way gingerly!

I have 3 questions if anyone can help. These assume high liquidity on football games

What can you infer (if anything) from the following situations

1. The Back and Lay odds are not close eg Back = 9 Lay = 13

2. The unmatched amount on Back is far greater than on Lay (or vice versa) eg Back = £5000 Lay = £500

3. After Backing 1-0 for eg, the Cash Out Profit figure stays fairly stable showing small loss for quite a while

Many thanks with any answers

[Derek27]

Hi

I'm fairly new to Betfair and finding my way gingerly!

I have 3 questions if anyone can help. These assume high liquidity on football games

What can you infer (if anything) from the following situations

1. The Back and Lay odds are not close eg Back = 9 Lay = 13

2. The unmatched amount on Back is far greater than on Lay (or vice versa) eg Back = £5000 Lay = £500

3. After Backing 1-0 for eg, the Cash Out Profit figure stays fairly stable showing small loss for quite a while

Many thanks with any answers

Hi Ken,

1. The market is uncompetitive. This is often the case in quiet, low liquidity markets that have little interest or markets well before the start time of the event, or markets in-play where the situation changes fast.

2. Of the people willing to show their cards and put down their orders, there's far more willingness to back or lay than the opposite. It's indicated by 'weight of money %' but personally, I don't read much into it or find it as relevant as it used to be, though it may vary from one sport to another.

3. I presume you're talking about football? That would depend entirely on what the current score is. If the score is 1-0, the price should gradually go down and increase your profit, but activity on the field concerning the likelihood of an imminent goal may temporarily reverse that.

[Kafkaesque]

Hi

I'm fairly new to Betfair and finding my way gingerly!

I have 3 questions if anyone can help. These assume high liquidity on football games

What can you infer (if anything) from the following situations

1. The Back and Lay odds are not close eg Back = 9 Lay = 13

2. The unmatched amount on Back is far greater than on Lay (or vice versa) eg Back = £5000 Lay = £500

3. After Backing 1-0 for eg, the Cash Out Profit figure stays fairly stable showing small loss for quite a while

Many thanks with any answers

Derek covered 1 & 2 well, 3 also, but I would add this. The price you're backing at 1-0 is a reflection of the market's perception of the chance of no more goals. The reverse, ie. the lay price, is the market's perception of the chance of it going, at least, 2-0 or 1-1 at any point.

Teams like City who go for the jugular at all times are a beast of their own, so the reverse is probably a better example. The anti-City among top teams are Atletico Madrid. Say they meet an inferior team at home and go 1-0 up. The back price for 1-0 immidiately after the goal will be a reflection of the expectation pre-game of goals, but also how the market knows that scenario would normally unfold from there. Usually Atletico will be pragmatic, rest with the ball, and make the opposition run to increase their chances of killing it off at a later stage, or even just settle for the 1-0 if that's how it pans out. On the other side, the opposition won't want to play into Atletico's hands and will in most cases not want to run themselves into the ground and/or open themselves up and lose, nearly, any chance by going two down. So they'll remain in their shape, hoping to nick a goal from somewhere, at least until the last 10-15 minutes. But if this doesn't play it like this, if Atletico still look like they could carve open the opposition again and again, or the opposition does abandon their defensive intent and go for a goal back immidiately, then of course the market's perception of the chance of no more goals will have been wrong and the price will go against you, and a late more time decay is needed before the price will drop.

Lots of scenarios were it may happen. The above is just the classic.