Where Am I Specifically Going Wrong With This Please?

[jimibt]

There is no such thing as "odds have a positive EV".

Read the page again and this time try to understand what EV means.

The given odds at any one time, combined over all possible outcomes (win/draw/lose) produce a net 0 (or negative) EV for any match, unless there is an arbitrage opportunity between different exchanges/bookmakers, which is very rare.

But aren't you comparing all three odds together though not just one single odd against the probability of it happening.

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

When people talk about finding +EV, they mean finding situations where the probability of something happening is not accurately represented by the given odds at that time.

@Speculator_3 -all yours now - enjoy!!

[JustLukeYou]

But aren't you comparing all three odds together though not just one single odd against the probability of it happening.

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

When people talk about finding +EV, they mean finding situations where the probability of something happening is not accurately represented by the given odds at that time.

@Speculator_3 -all yours now - enjoy!!

This is a positive EV from the Smarkets guide

(89 * 0.40) - (50 * 0.60) = 5.6

[Speculator_3]

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

When people talk about finding +EV, they mean finding situations where the probability of something happening is not accurately represented by the given odds at that time.

@Speculator_3 -all yours now - enjoy!!

This is a positive EV from the Smarkets guide

(89 * 0.40) - (50 * 0.60) = 5.6

To be honest, I am thinking you are a troll. But in case you are not: this example from them uses NOT the given probability implied by their odds, but the probability that YOU think is right. There is a big difference. Read the page again before asking more questions.

[Speculator_3]

But aren't you comparing all three odds together though not just one single odd against the probability of it happening.

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

When people talk about finding +EV, they mean finding situations where the probability of something happening is not accurately represented by the given odds at that time.

@Speculator_3 -all yours now - enjoy!!

Not for much longer. My patience is running out already...

[JustLukeYou]

Expected value is calculated by summing over all possible outcomes. When you consider the odds given to you by the bookmaker / exchange, you will see that it is zero (or negative). Verify it for yourself on any match.

When people talk about finding +EV, they mean finding situations where the probability of something happening is not accurately represented by the given odds at that time.

@Speculator_3 -all yours now - enjoy!!

Not for much longer. My patience is running out already...

I'm not to concerned. I started my post by saying "Hi Euler" is your name "Euler". Only a handful of people on this forum are helpful.

[jimibt]

@Speculator_3 -all yours now - enjoy!!

Not for much longer. My patience is running out already...

I'm not to concerned. I started my post by saying "Hi Euler" is your name "Euler". Only a handful of people on this forum are helpful.

there's a PM function for that. that means you don't have to worry about non intended recipients responding.

[JustLukeYou]

Tbh I hope my process I am going through helps other newbies.

Can someone provide an example of how this process works based on my example of Bayern Munich. Im struggling to understand how someone can calculate all the EV's of correct score during a live match.

[JustLukeYou]

This is what the guide says "If however you were offered odds of 2.15 for the coin to land on heads, this is a value bet."

So how can positive EV's not exist how do you obtain them?

[Speculator_3]

Tbh I hope my process I am going through helps other newbies.

Can someone provide an example of how this process works based on my example of Bayern Munich. Im struggling to understand how someone can calculate all the EV's of correct score during a live match.

Look Luke, take the example of Smarkets and apply it to tonight's Eintracht vs Leverkusen match. The current match back odds are 2.98, 2.4, 4 (win-draw-win). What is the expected value of £10 bet on Eintracht? (Ignore commission).

Answer me this question before you ask anything else.

[JustLukeYou]

Tbh I hope my process I am going through helps other newbies.

Can someone provide an example of how this process works based on my example of Bayern Munich. Im struggling to understand how someone can calculate all the EV's of correct score during a live match.

Look Luke, take the example of Smarkets and apply it to tonight's Eintracht vs Leverkusen match. The current match back odds are 2.98, 2.4, 4 (win-draw-win). What is the expected value of £10 bet on Eintracht? (Ignore commission).

Answer me this question before you ask anything else.

0.00088

[JustLukeYou]

Does anyone use xG for specific matches to support their trades. River Plate played last night and if you have a look at their away form they almost always have 2 or more goals in the first half which is very high. I was sure there would be 2 or more goals and the odds were 4.5 but I just didn't back them. Not only am trading out early but also not backing odds when I can see real value in them.

Does anyone know how to use the following stats for the Barcelona game today:

https://understat.com/team/Barcelona/2019

[spreadbetting]

You should stick to value punting Luke, seems your trading isn't adding anything to your profits.

[JustLukeYou]

You should stick to value punting Luke, seems your trading isn't adding anything to your profits.

No thanks.

[Speculator_3]

Tbh I hope my process I am going through helps other newbies.

Can someone provide an example of how this process works based on my example of Bayern Munich. Im struggling to understand how someone can calculate all the EV's of correct score during a live match.

Look Luke, take the example of Smarkets and apply it to tonight's Eintracht vs Leverkusen match. The current match back odds are 2.98, 2.4, 4 (win-draw-win). What is the expected value of £10 bet on Eintracht? (Ignore commission).

Answer me this question before you ask anything else.

0.00088

Ok, so you verified for yourself that EV basically zero (and it WILL be negative once you take commission into account).

[JustLukeYou]

Look Luke, take the example of Smarkets and apply it to tonight's Eintracht vs Leverkusen match. The current match back odds are 2.98, 2.4, 4 (win-draw-win). What is the expected value of £10 bet on Eintracht? (Ignore commission).

Answer me this question before you ask anything else.

0.00088

Ok, so you verified for yourself that EV basically zero (and it WILL be negative once you take commission into account).

Yes.