Any help much appreciated!

[darchas]

Good evening all

Apologies in advance for the wall of text and negative tone of this post. I feel pretty lost right now and in need of some advice and wisdom.

I’ve been attempting to make money from football for about four years now. I made a nice amount of money from matched betting and following a horse tipster for a year, when those avenues dried up I wanted to move on to trading football. I joined up to a trading service and started following their strats for about 18 months, all the time I was a loser, at the same time I found Bet Angel and started to learn more about trading. At this point I questioned a lot what I was doing as it didn’t seem to be trading at all, just betting based on stats. I couldn’t get my head around how these strats could work given the efficiency of the market. So I was stuck really and the fact I was losing was always my fault whenever I asked for feedback as there’d be some reason why I shouldn’t have picked that match. I spent more time here and learned more and started to trade horses pre-off, only at two quid stakes to practice. I built this up and was making a little bit and went up to £50 stakes when one day I had a lay bet in when the market suspended, turned out the race was one not planned to go in-play and of course the horse won and I lost over £500.

After this I took a break for a few months. With subs and the horse loss I was a good chunk down. After a while, when I’d regrouped, my passion for learning to trade (and a good amount of stubborness at not wanting to be beaten) brought me back. This time I stuck to football, small stakes, all I was doing was researching matches, comparing to the odds, and getting in or not based on that. Broke even for a while and felt like I was making some progress, but again I had this lurking feeling that this wasn’t the way to go and there was just no edge in me flicking through past data on soccerstats. This led me to looking inplay, and ultimately signing up with another trading site. I thought this would be a place where I could learn and finally understand and get to grips with the trading element. Once again though, all strategies taught basically boiled down to gambling.on a result, no actual trading involved. I started to work on my own ideas but ultimately this ended up working out worse than straight betting as I had no properly defined exit plan so my winners I’d trade out early and my losers would go the whole way. This led me to then breaking down the match into chunks. I’d use inplay stats to trade sections of the game, for instance given a certain amount of FH activity (shots on/off target, corners), I’d lay the unders around 50 minutes with a defined exit of 30 ticks if no goal. Again I lost money, and again I realised that what I was doing was basically the same as I’d been doing previously, only now I was gambling on a goal in a specific time frame. I experimented with this with different inplay stats, different pre-match stats, different time periods, (the number of goals that were scored as soon as my stop loss was hit was uncanny!) before realising that gambling on a goal in a specific time period wasn’t the answer.

So at this point I feel pretty lost, I have read so much on this forum and I’m thankful for every contribution on here, it’s easily the most I have learned anywhere. In all this time, with the time I’ve spent learning various things, the money I’ve spent on subs to various places, I haven’t been able to find something, some aspect that I can understand, some area where I can see how money can be made. So, I’m not even sure what my question is, I guess any advice or any pointers would be very helpful and most welcome, I feel lost and a nudge towards the right path would be much appreciated. I feel like I’ve spent four years looking in all the wrong places, I’m determined to make this work and feel like I really can do, I’m just in the dark right now and could do with a light. Of course I massively appreciate how much work is put in to carve out an edge and I’m not asking for anyone to give that up. I think part of me just wanted to get this out as well, so any thoughts or if anyone has been through similar would be welcomed, plus whatever you did to get out of it! I’ve spent a lot of time on the forum and am thankful for everything you’ve all shared, I feel a bit ashamed pouring all this out actually having always been a lurker, but I guess I never felt I had anything useful to contribute.

Anyway, if you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading.

Duncan

[iambic_pentameter]

Duncan,

Welcome to the forum.

I'm not sure I have 'the right answer' for you but my advice would be to focus on one sport and, until you've mastered that, don't try and learn anything else.

Old Russian proverb:

"If you chase two rabbits, you will not catch either one"

Assuming you haven't already done so, you would do well to visit the Bet Angel Academy and work your way through the content there; the football trading section has 8+ hours of material.

Something that might also help you, is that all the full time traders I've spoken to have taken between 2 and 8 years to crack it so hopefully you can see it's not a quick fix.

All the best

Iambic

[weemac]

".......I haven’t been able to find something, some aspect that I can understand, some area where I can see how money can be made."

I've been involved in betting of various kinds for 37 years and haven't made a penny in football. It's the only sport I don't think I could ever expect to 'beat'. It's too global. If you really must continue on your quest, try specializing in other, potentially much easier, sports. Don't follow any tipsters. Bear in mind that publicly available 'stats' are errm....public, and therefore pretty much impossible to beat long term. Think, and do, everything yourself.

There you are - four top tips and you didn't even know what the question was!

(Just saw that one of my tips was suggested by another forumite in the very time it took me to write my post.)

[Kai]

Hi Duncan

I think this is all very normal, it doesn't matter how long you've been trying to learn because everyone learns at their own pace, depending also on how much free time they have. Sounds like you were doing well on horses before that one random race, probably shouldn't have given up on it then just because one horse randomly lost.

On football it sounds like you only scratched the surface, but again, instead of giving up on it a couple times you really have to dig deeper and find genuine traders to point you in the right directions. After working on something like football for a long time the worst thing you can do is drop it entirely and switch to something completely different like prerace horses, because by doing that you're practically starting again from scratch since horses require a different skill set. Unfortunately that is exactly what people often do, and after that they try something different again like tennis where they start from scratch again and then they repeat the whole cycle, each time they get a little closer but they're still going around in a circle, instead of digging deep and penetrating through the middle so to speak which would be the shortest path to the target - aka specialization. So pick your poison, find the people that are considered the best at these markets and try to learn from them.

[jamesg46]

Hi Duncan,

I think you're not alone in your quest for an "edge" - it's a very debatable word in itself imo. People seem to think it's an A + B = C type of thing. The whole "subs" industry is built on that illusion, could you imagine it being as easy as a £25 sub to make it in this game? So, firstly please drop the world of subs.... first step to a positive bank.

An edge is a thing YOU can repeat time after time, it's a process that you have structured, a place and situation in a game that you recognise happens frequently & you can get it right more times than you get it wrong. Football itself is a highly variable game & you'll see people who specialise in late goals, people who specialise in laying the draw etc - there is no set strategy to throw over the markets like a blanket, that will return +% - it's a highly variable game, you just want to split those variables (like the late goal) recognise those types of matches, be it through expected goals or whatever, have them in your "to trade" list & watch reality play out - if reality isn't conforming to your hypothesis then dont trade it. You may have a list of 3 games per day that you've calculated have a 2.9 goal expectancy, your margin or edge may be in a time period in the game where any part of the 2.9 goals may come (like the late goal) or the first goal... but you have to stick to reality - the numbers might be there on your spreadsheet but the momentum on the pitch might be missing.

Nobody can sell a packaged edge deal that fits all Duncan, your biggest edge is you. Stay away from the bull shitters & best wishes.

[ANGELS15]

Duncan, Iambic made a very good point about focussing on one sport. You need to ask yourself and think long and hard 'what am I good at?'.

To me trading is essentially buying and selling. Are you able to look at a particualar sport market and say 'that's good/poor value'?

I focus on racing as I don't know about other sports like football etc. Over many years I've learnt to use my experience to spot value, back it and trade it off, or the reverse lay it and back it at higher price.

If you were a shopkeeper and you spotted umbrellas at £2 each at the wholesalers and you suspected it was going to rain heavily in the next few days, you might buy the brollies knowing you could sell them for £10 each later. Why should trading on the exchanges be different?

I'll give a couple of warnings on stats. I have to use racing examples as It's the only sport I know. Back in the early 2000s there was a very high class staying hurdler called Baracouda. It had won many/most of the top staying hurdles in France/UK. There was a big race, I think the long walk hurdle. A stats expert in the racing post stated 'avoid the favourites in this race as they've only won 3 out of the last 10 runnings'.

I looked at the stats, sure enough the favourite had won 3 times out 10. However what was interesting was that the favourite had won the last 3 out of the 10 and the winning favourite had been Baracouda each time and it was 4/11 favourite today! Baracouda did his usual thing sitting off the pace and then strolled through the field to win as he liked.

Another example a stats experts said follow jockey x at course y as he's shown a profit to a level stake over the last 3 seasons. turns out the particular jockey who usually rode the lesser lights for a small stable had a 100/1 winner when the favourite fell and brought the 2nd favourite down presenting jockey x with the race. The vast majority of his rides about a dozen a year at the track were outsiders which lost.

good luck on your journey

[JustLukeYou]

Hi,

In my humble opinion I think you should try and again but start small. On Smarkets the minimum bet is 5p. One great piece of advice I saw was "if you can't make a profit from £2 why are you bothering with £200".

Also, set up a spreadsheet and record everything that you are doing. You might find that you are very good with a specific league or country. For example, many people get carried with the mayhem and media saturation of Premier League and just assume that the top teams will always win so maybe try a specific league or event. You might also want to look into events that you can research. The research won't always predict the future but I have found that it often will.

All try to devise a specific strategy. For example, I have found that I am much better at identifying when a goal will be scored instead of when a goal won't be scored.

If you trade with pennies you can make mistakes and learn from them without any pressure.

Another point that I learning more about and trying to apply is that you need to go into an event with a plan and if that plan isn't work just bail out and keep your money.

Let's say for example you think Liverpool are going to spank Tottenham later today but in the first 10 minutes Liverpool are playing poor and misplacing passes just bail out and move onto the next match where Liverpool are playing how they typically play.

[Kai]

Duncan have a look at the football threads that the previous poster (JustLukeYou) opened recently, there's 20+ threads where everyone chipped in with all sorts of advice and guidance. I'd suggest to start reading from the bottom and work your way up, you should be able to find what you're looking for.

search.php?keywords=&terms=any&author=j ... mit=Search

Btw, subscription based services for football trading that you were probably a part of were also discussed : viewtopic.php?p=201174#p201174

[darchas]

Evening gents

Thanks a lot for all the advice, I really mean it. I was a bit wary of opening the thread up again because I had a proper whinge there! But part of me does feel better for getting it out. I took a break yesterday evening and this morning and then kept it simple this afternoon and made a couple of quid. I know it's not all doom and gloom like the mood I was in yesterday! I can see one thing that hasn't helped is flicking around too much on different markets, just about scratching the surface on one when I'm then off to another. I'm going to pick one simple thing now like I did this afternoon and just work on that for the next few weeks, really understand it. In a way I've fallen a bit for the advice of 'experienced traders' and the money I've spent on subs has been an expensive lesson. Well I've learned it now so I'm glad about that.

I'm just going to go through the comments again now and respond to specifics, but honestly thanks to everyone who chipped in, it means a lot.

Best wishes

Duncan

[darchas]

"If you chase two rabbits, you will not catch either one"

Yes this hits home. Even within football my approach changes too often and the markets I'm in. I'm going to pick something that I know from past results I at least break-even in and stick with it, really get to know it inside out.

Assuming you haven't already done so, you would do well to visit the Bet Angel Academy and work your way through the content there; the football trading section has 8+ hours of material.

I'd definitely recommend this resource to anyone. I've been working through the football section over the last couple of months.

Something that might also help you, is that all the full time traders I've spoken to have taken between 2 and 8 years to crack it so hopefully you can see it's not a quick fix.

Yes this is something I heard about and it definitely rings true in my experience. I guess part of this is why subscription services offering winning strategies etc do so well, it's not as easy of a sell to tell people it's going to take a couple of years!

Thanks for your comments.

Duncan

[darchas]

I've been involved in betting of various kinds for 37 years and haven't made a penny in football. It's the only sport I don't think I could ever expect to 'beat'. It's too global. If you really must continue on your quest, try specializing in other, potentially much easier, sports. Don't follow any tipsters. Bear in mind that publicly available 'stats' are errm....public, and therefore pretty much impossible to beat long term. Think, and do, everything yourself.

There you are - four top tips and you didn't even know what the question was!

(Just saw that one of my tips was suggested by another forumite in the very time it took me to write my post.)

Thanks for the advice, they're good tips for sure, and your point about how hard it is to beat given the scale of football and the wealth of information out there, is something that's been on the back of my mind for a while.

Cheers

Duncan

[spreadbetting]

Hi,

In my humble opinion I think you should try and again but start small. On Smarkets the minimum bet is 5p. One great piece of advice I saw was "if you can't make a profit from £2 why are you bothering with £200".

Can't imagine anyone could get focussed playing in 5p bets, you're hardly going to care if you dropped 30p in a day are you Bet the person giving that advice was hoping you'd spend the £200 buying his ebooks or courses rather than sticking it through the markets.

[darchas]

On football it sounds like you only scratched the surface, but again, instead of giving up on it a couple times you really have to dig deeper and find genuine traders to point you in the right directions. After working on something like football for a long time the worst thing you can do is drop it entirely and switch to something completely different like prerace horses, because by doing that you're practically starting again from scratch since horses require a different skill set. Unfortunately that is exactly what people often do, and after that they try something different again like tennis where they start from scratch again and then they repeat the whole cycle, each time they get a little closer but they're still going around in a circle, instead of digging deep and penetrating through the middle so to speak which would be the shortest path to the target - aka specialization. So pick your poison, find the people that are considered the best at these markets and try to learn from them.

This is exactly right. And what I've been doing. I get to a surface level of understanding and just at the point where I might actually be about to break through to a deeper understanding I end up trying something else. I can see this in retrospect. One of the difficulties is not knowing whether something is a waste of time, but I think it's better to push through and even getting to a point where you fully know the 'why' behind why that avenue is a waste of time is valuable information and not time wasted. Not sure if that sentence makes any sense

Duncan have a look at the football threads that the previous poster (JustLukeYou) opened recently, there's 20+ threads where everyone chipped in with all sorts of advice and guidance. I'd suggest to start reading from the bottom and work your way up, you should be able to find what you're looking for.

Btw, subscription based services for football trading that you were probably a part of were also discussed : viewtopic.php?p=201174#p201174

Yes I've read through all those threads, some fantastic advice on there, and tbh part of reading them is what prompted me to reevaluate where I'm at and the things I've been working on. Ref the subscription services that was another comment which was an eye opener for me and reflected pretty much my own feelings.

Thanks Kai

Duncan

[darchas]

I think you're not alone in your quest for an "edge" - it's a very debatable word in itself imo. People seem to think it's an A + B = C type of thing. The whole "subs" industry is built on that illusion, could you imagine it being as easy as a £25 sub to make it in this game? So, firstly please drop the world of subs.... first step to a positive bank.

Spot on. I've learned my lesson there for sure. It's a seductive sell but it's just one that doesn't stand up to scrutiny. I've had my fingers burned but it's been a lesson learned and sometimes you have to go through these things and come out the other side.

An edge is a thing YOU can repeat time after time, it's a process that you have structured, a place and situation in a game that you recognise happens frequently & you can get it right more times than you get it wrong. Football itself is a highly variable game & you'll see people who specialise in late goals, people who specialise in laying the draw etc - there is no set strategy to throw over the markets like a blanket, that will return +% - it's a highly variable game, you just want to split those variables (like the late goal) recognise those types of matches, be it through expected goals or whatever, have them in your "to trade" list & watch reality play out - if reality isn't conforming to your hypothesis then dont trade it. You may have a list of 3 games per day that you've calculated have a 2.9 goal expectancy, your margin or edge may be in a time period in the game where any part of the 2.9 goals may come (like the late goal) or the first goal... but you have to stick to reality - the numbers might be there on your spreadsheet but the momentum on the pitch might be missing.

Nobody can sell a packaged edge deal that fits all Duncan, your biggest edge is you. Stay away from the bull shitters & best wishes.

This is a big help, thank you. Today I went back to basics, put together my list, traded them in a simple way with one strategy in mind, if the game didn't pan out as expected I binned it off. It felt good going back to basics and I even made a couple of quid which was a bonus. Point is I think you're right I've been trying various things expecting some sort of holy grail out there. Where in reality I'd have better spent the time refining more and more what I'm doing and getting a deeper understanding of which variables inform my position and which don't. I think I needed this as a reset and I'm glad now I posted.

Thanks again

Duncan

[darchas]

Duncan, Iambic made a very good point about focussing on one sport. You need to ask yourself and think long and hard 'what am I good at?'.

To me trading is essentially buying and selling. Are you able to look at a particualar sport market and say 'that's good/poor value'?

I focus on racing as I don't know about other sports like football etc. Over many years I've learnt to use my experience to spot value, back it and trade it off, or the reverse lay it and back it at higher price.

If you were a shopkeeper and you spotted umbrellas at £2 each at the wholesalers and you suspected it was going to rain heavily in the next few days, you might buy the brollies knowing you could sell them for £10 each later. Why should trading on the exchanges be different?

I'll give a couple of warnings on stats. I have to use racing examples as It's the only sport I know. Back in the early 2000s there was a very high class staying hurdler called Baracouda. It had won many/most of the top staying hurdles in France/UK. There was a big race, I think the long walk hurdle. A stats expert in the racing post stated 'avoid the favourites in this race as they've only won 3 out of the last 10 runnings'.

I looked at the stats, sure enough the favourite had won 3 times out 10. However what was interesting was that the favourite had won the last 3 out of the 10 and the winning favourite had been Baracouda each time and it was 4/11 favourite today! Baracouda did his usual thing sitting off the pace and then strolled through the field to win as he liked.

Another example a stats experts said follow jockey x at course y as he's shown a profit to a level stake over the last 3 seasons. turns out the particular jockey who usually rode the lesser lights for a small stable had a 100/1 winner when the favourite fell and brought the 2nd favourite down presenting jockey x with the race. The vast majority of his rides about a dozen a year at the track were outsiders which lost.

good luck on your journey

This is really useful, thank you. You're right about sticking to one thing, and I like your buying and selling analogy. I have areas where I feel I have a good grasp of what odds are value and what aren't, i need to focus my time more in these spots rather than trying too many different things at once.

Cheers

Duncan