General Election 2019 (UK)

[Euler]

I read up on a behavioural science experiment where they tricked people into giving them the answers they wanted more than they should.

Also, the method of collect has a significant impact.

[ShaunWhite]

Polls have always been manipulated for propaganda purposes, people are pack animals so giving an impression of what the masses aledgedly want is powerful.

This is even more influential now that critical thinking has been almost completely eradicated from the education system, evidenced by the ludacrous way in which every topic is distilled to a binary choice in the minds of people who've never been encouraged to think deeply.

Unfortunately there are even contrasting views about what democracy is these days, one is the path which leads to the logical conclusion of PR, ie the true 'voice of the people' democracy, and the other is a fck the loser attitude used to manipulate people who don't understand subtlety. Ironically it's the people who understand the concept the least who are the ones mostly likely to be shouting about it and in doing so just make themselves look foolish.

[greenmark]

"people are pack animals"

Gonna go off the deep end here. People are not pack animals.
If they were, we would now be living in a Nazi state.
Humanity rebelled against Nazism. Millions died.
Thats not sheeplike.

[Kafkaesque]

"people are pack animals"

Gonna go off the deep end here. People are not pack animals.
If they were, we would now be living in a Nazi state.
Humanity rebelled against Nazism. Millions died.
Thats not sheeplike.

That is indeed the deep end.

Maybe. Or maybe humanity, or rather nation states, rebelled against and resisted being occupied by Germany. Which would have happened just as much if Hitler had consolidated power based around anything other than anti-semitism.

Western European nations didn't exactly oppose Hitler and what he stood for all that veminently until it was clear that his plan was to come knocking on our doorsteps without asking permission to come in, and the US also not stepping in until things really hit home for them. And anti-semitism wasn't exactly an unknown quantity in the US, non-Germany Europe and USSR.

[ShaunWhite]

"people are pack animals"

Gonna go off the deep end here. People are not pack animals.
If they were, we would now be living in a Nazi state.
Humanity rebelled against Nazism. Millions died.
Thats not sheep like.

Sheep-like isn't quite the same, that requires changing pack and that's uncommon. If not 'pack' animals then certain a desire to fit in rather than being an outsider.

[ShaunWhite]

that was a short hop from polls to the extreme right.

Polls eh.... Just look out for who's paying for them. The only opinion I respect is that of the undisputed king of the psephologists, Sir John Curtice.

[firlandsfarm]

Are you saying that opinion polls are skewed, based on, who indirectly commisions them?
It would explain why they've been pretty rubbish at predicting political events for a while.
Perhaps they've become part of democracy, not an independent gatherer of real opinion.

I sure am. I think the vid clip is a good demonstration. Yes it's funny but can you honestly tell me you wouldn't have answered the way Bernard did! I do it even now no matter how many times I see the clip and as Sir Humphrey says, they just take the final answer and bin the rest. I think if a poll is to be published then it should be a requirement that it is published in whole, particularly the warm-up questions, so that we and the media can see how neutral it really is.

Polls eh.... Just look out for who's paying for them.

Exactly … if you commission a poll you set the questions (to get the response you want) and if you don't get the response you want you don't publish … simple!

[greenmark]

" I think if a poll is to be published then it should be a requirement that it is published in whole, particularly the warm-up questions, so that we and the media can see how neutral it really is."

This is in reply firlandsfarm comment above.
And I'm 100% with you there.

[Euler]

The psychology and structure behind polling and such are really fascinating.

[firlandsfarm]

OK so I think we have established that we should be very sceptical of polls which may mislead on the likely outcome but when taking positions in a market we are concerned with how the market will move and not so much the outcome, so … do polls move the markets they are associated with?

[Dublin_Flyer]

STOP THE PRESS!!
Boris Johnson didn't take the teabag out before adding the milk and Sky News took the chance to get the advice of a tearoom expert lady on making the perfect cup of tea.
Jesus give me fvcking strength!

[dragontrades]

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .165009846

[Euler]

Private eye have summed up the PR polling situation nicely with this little ditty: -

https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/stat ... 7328878592

[greenmark]

Johnson slams an Extinction Rebellion protest.
"He served sausage rolls and pasties to customers, and said about the protest: "There were lots of crusties there - more crusty than your loaves."
".
Way to go Boris!
Insulting to both the older generation and diminishing the genuine concern of younger people.

[dragontrades]

Boris not moving to a safe seat