Football in-play stats rules to use.

[ilovepizza82]

Hi,

Would love to have something like in-play football stats rules, shots on and off target, corners etc. and then rules to use in-play stats like: if SOT >4 then lay (the draw of course )

BTW:
Merry Christmas everyone !

[jamesg46]

Hi,

Would love to have something like the lastest in-play football stats rules, shots on and off target, corners etc. and then rules to use in-play stats like: if SOT >4 then lay (the draw of course )

BTW:
Merry Christmas everyone !

Merry Christmas to you too!

Personally, I think that would be a recipe for disaster & pretty reckless to create software that allows bets/trades to be made based on stats like shots on/off target... I'm at risk of waffling on here but unless you know the quality of chances being converted then it's a pointless stat.

Sounds like a gimmick to me, it will sell the product because those sort of stats are what stimulate the majority of gamblers... you only have to look at why most gamblers prefer the 365 app, because it offers the best visual pleasure. They're very successful as a company & I would imagine that pushing useless shots on/off target stats on a nice column chart display is part of the reason.

[GaryCook]

Agreed with James. Stats that simple will give you a false sense of security and take your money.

[ilovepizza82]

I dont know a single pro football trader who makes long term money (and i know really quite a few ones) who wouldnt be using in-play stats. If in general stats gave a "false sense of security" and people really believed that then THAT would be a disaster. Just think about all the patterns both in sports exchange and financial markets and I dont want to even think about science and progress of our civilization. Obviously nobody in their right mind base their bets SOLELY on shots on target . There is a pre match research and then combination of different kind of in-play stats.

[jamesg46]

How many of these shots would register as an attempt on target

[jamesg46]

Imagine placing a bet because you see the high qty of shots

[jamesg46]

Pre match research is pretty thin too imo, I'm not suggesting it shouldn't be done but how many changes to a teams structure can be made in the time frame of 10 H2H's - different manager, different players, different formations, different weather, how many years is 10 h2h's, just in general the games in history have no relation to the approach of now. This is just my opinion, I'm not necessarily right & maybe people are successful using that kind of "analysis" - me personally, I prefer the analysis of reality... what is actually happening now. Some stats are helpful, just look at the xG and compare it to the shots on flashscore but even then I think watching and reading a game are probably the best way to go about trading one.

[jamesg46]

Just to compare.

[jamesg46]

xG can even be off, so that's why I say that reading the actual game is the better approach.

[Kai]

I dont know a single pro football trader who makes long term money (and i know really quite a few ones) who wouldnt be using in-play stats. If in general stats gave a "false sense of security" and people really believed that then THAT would be a disaster. Just think about all the patterns both in sports exchange and financial markets and I dont want to even think about science and progress of our civilization. Obviously nobody in their right mind base their bets SOLELY on shots on target . There is a pre match research and then combination of different kind of in-play stats.

That's quite interesting, because I don't really know any specialist football traders that do use in-play stats. It's a shame that the Portuguese football trading community is a closed off one and that there's no one around really to shed some more light on some of their football trading approaches and philosophies in general because I think some of them can be very interesting, perhaps even enlightening. That is why I have tried to express some of my opinions on more than one occasion regarding these markets, but to a certain extent I think there's no right or wrong way to trade football, there's only your way of trading.

By that I mean that it's very possible to use all kinds of stats including the basic ones to find an edge, but this edge should logically be the weakest one that you can find, and if you can properly grind/scale then it can still produce good results. Of course, the edge should get progressively stronger the better your ability to read the market and the game on a deeper level beyond the stats themselves. On the opposite side of the spectrum it is also possible to produce profit on every game, since I don't think anyone has the delay advantage anymore there's only one way to achieve such results and that's through a higher frequency approach where the trader is in full control over the order flow, because by executing many trades on one market you truly stack the odds in your favor, so to speak, and it's very difficult to lose if executed properly.

That is still my favorite approach on some markets, but is it really necessary to produce a profit on every market? No, definitely not, it sounds good but that is probably a sign that you are not trading efficiently at all and instead of extracting the optimal amount of profit from the market you are probably extracting just the minimum amount, compared to your ability. A more balanced approach somewhere in the middle that allows for a bit of variance is probably the most sensible approach, it's not exactly a coincidence that all of the very best football traders share a similarly balanced approach like that.

What I'm trying to say is that you can't go for the biggest results by playing it safe and it's entirely up to you how you want to work these markets, luckily there are many ways to extract profit.