Australian Open 2020
-
- Posts: 686
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Incredible amount of disbelief in Thiem in the market..
price is about in line what it should be given pre match odds isnt it?Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:48 amIncredible amount of disbelief in Thiem in the market..
-
- Posts: 686
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Not on my model, though you wouldn't have it the other round. Nadal's stamina and ability during important moments needs some serious discounting. Still, it's big Thiem in general, market has not adjusted for what has occurred, it has priced in Nadal outperforming the start price from here.rik wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:53 amprice is about in line what it should be given pre match odds isnt it?Nero Tulip wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:48 amIncredible amount of disbelief in Thiem in the market..
-
- Posts: 686
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
They're pricing in Best of 7... (the old ones are the best.. )
-
- Posts: 686
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
'foot off the gas' could arguably make this price at best 'ok'.. but it's a substantial change in performance level being implied.. say Nadal priced at a very rough 1.27ish SP from here. Where as stats have him currently as the wrong favourite! over two lengthy sets that a decent amount of data to infer from..