US Presidential Election 2020

[Naffman]

Thought I'd start this thread so it doesn't get muddled up in other topics

Trump 2.08
Biden 2.24

Have at it

[rik]

Biden aged a lot, might have early dementia, they should have gotten someone younger really

[jamesg46]

Thought I'd start this thread so it doesn't get muddled up in other topics

Trump 2.08
Biden 2.24

Have at it

Trump would win this hands down if all he did from now until November was to shut his mouth & stop trying to explain what he doesn't understand or further more, what nobody understands.

The inject bleach has really damaged the way he will be perceived & Joe Biden is already all over it. The actual fact that scientists are researching everything from bleach to Tic-Taks as a possible cure is something that he should leave to science, instead he wants to be the smart guy that tells everyone hes a really smart guy & it was him that saved the world before anybody else could.

Biden with dementia now has a shot over Trumps ego. God help us all when the most powerful country on earth is in this sort of pickle. The people who will actually get things done stay away from stages & thank god those people exist.

[eileendover]

i can see trumps odds only lenghthening if like naffman says he contines to open his mouth and bleat moronic statements to the entire country,surely to goodness,the entire world must be hoping he doesn't get another term!

[Big Bad Barney]

This is the URL.
https://www.betfair.com.au/exchange/plu ... .128151441

Anyone got any tips on how you go about trading elections? I'm not too sure historical data would be of much use, and there's a gazillion unknowns?

Is it a matter of just putting down your bet after you see some short term bad news on the radio or some such? I.e. Trump says, drink acid, it's good for killing corona... probably better value going for trump right? (as long as its long enough away from the election that people will forget about it)

[gazuty]

I've built a small profit on this one.

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Anyone got any tips on how you go about trading elections? I'm not too sure historical data would be of much use, and there's a gazillion unknowns?

Um, well I'm coming from the perspective where I didn't think Trump could get the nomination for the GOP last time round (five figure mistake) and so

Is it a matter of just putting down your bet after you see some short term bad news on the radio or some such? I.e. Trump says, drink acid, it's good for killing corona... probably better value going for trump right? (as long as its long enough away from the election that people will forget about it)

One thing I would think about - "it's the economy stupid". With an expectation of coronavirus fading into the rear vision mirror (big assumption, but if it does), then come September, October and leading into the big Tuesday in November, with a gazillion unemployed in the US - who you gunna vote for to give you a chance of gettin' a job or keepin' ya' job. Coronavirus might kill, but if you live, you need to work for a hell a lot more time than coronavirus is going to be around (IMHO).

[Naffman]

Seen on twitter there's a political analyst for Betfair called the Political Gambler, he's so subjective it's unreal for someone trying to bet in politics. You can see from his timeline he hates Tories and hates Trump, he laid Trump months ago before the crisis at 2.4 (stupid)

Now I'm not trying to be subjective as well but I can imagine a lot of Americans like Trump's stance on China, yes he's said some idiot things but I feel like people hate the politically correct left and the MSM that much that voting Trump is almost a way of getting back at them, kind of how a lot of Labour voters over here switched sides.

[jamesg46]

The Trump situation imo is fascinating, hes had every single book thrown at him & yet still manages to keep his support, hes now facing an economic disaster aswell as the virus pandemic & he suddenly decides to start giving the opposition books to throw at him. If he keeps his support through all of this the only thing left for the Dems to do is to take him out. His drain the swamp speeches aren't a million miles away from JFK'S secret society's speech & if there is something in that (which many believe the CIA to be the swamp) then it could be a very possible outcome. I think Betfair even have a void market if it does happen.

[Trader Pat]

I'm amazed given all he's said and done over the past 5 years or so that people still think there is a straw that will break the camels back and the Republican voters will now turn against him, its not going to happen. Conservatives don't care what he says or does because he's pushing their agenda.

[jamesg46]

I'm amazed given all he's said and done over the past 5 years or so that people still think there is a straw that will break the camels back and the Republican voters will now turn against him, its not going to happen. Conservatives don't care what he says or does because he's pushing their agenda.

Without the popular vote and the woke delusion there is millions of people hoping a straw breaks a camel's back but I have to agree with you, you try and get the following person to change their mind about Trump.

https://twitter.com/GemmaYoung/status/1 ... 30592?s=19

[Trader Pat]

I'm amazed given all he's said and done over the past 5 years or so that people still think there is a straw that will break the camels back and the Republican voters will now turn against him, its not going to happen. Conservatives don't care what he says or does because he's pushing their agenda.

Without the popular vote and the woke delusion there is millions of people hoping a straw breaks a camel's back but I have to agree with you, you try and get the following person to change their mind about Trump.

https://twitter.com/GemmaYoung/status/1 ... 30592?s=19

Where do you even begin with that?!

It's easy to say she's an idiot but in her defence if you spend your whole life exposed to Fox News or other Conservative channels or radio shows you become brainwashed and never question anything, the American media have a lot to answer for. Even counsellor to the president Kelly Anne Conway said last week its called Covid 19 because its the 19th version of the virus! She's a trained lawyer and obviously intelligent so what chance does this poor woman from Jacksonville have!

I like America and when you meet Americans they're normal people just like anywhere else (except for maybe the magnum sitting on their waist) some are a little 'eccentric' but I always found them to be very helpful. When I'm in the States though I have 1 rule, I never mention religion or poiltics!

[Derek27]

I like America and when you meet Americans they're normal people just like anywhere else (except for maybe the magnum sitting on their waist) some are a little 'eccentric' but I always found them to be very helpful. When I'm in the States though I have 1 rule, I never mention religion or poiltics!

I've never been to America so that's very reassuring.

[Trader Pat]

I like America and when you meet Americans they're normal people just like anywhere else (except for maybe the magnum sitting on their waist) some are a little 'eccentric' but I always found them to be very helpful. When I'm in the States though I have 1 rule, I never mention religion or poiltics!

I've never been to America so that's very reassuring.

[Archery1969]

I too love the USA. Back in 2012 i had planned a hunting trip to Sierra Nevada mountain range. The outfitters i had booked with let me down, got chatting to a guy in a local bar who said "me and my dad will pick you up tomorrow at 5.00am from your motel". Was the best 4 days experience of my life. Offered to pay them for their time and knowledge, told me not to insult them and come back and visit if that way again. Been back three times since and we stay in contact on skpe etc.

Everyone i met in that area was very friendly but yes they do like their guns. I asked many of them what they would do if their government tried to ban firearms and they had to hand them in for destruction. All of them pretty much said the same thing, government doesnt have enough ammo.

[Kafkaesque]

I'm amazed given all he's said and done over the past 5 years or so that people still think there is a straw that will break the camels back and the Republican voters will now turn against him, its not going to happen. Conservatives don't care what he says or does because he's pushing their agenda.

Without the popular vote and the woke delusion there is millions of people hoping a straw breaks a camel's back but I have to agree with you, you try and get the following person to change their mind about Trump.

https://twitter.com/GemmaYoung/status/1 ... 30592?s=19

There's always going to be a certain percentage that never, ever changes their mind. Who'll always support the one who's most in favor of gun rights, anti-abortion etc. on the one side and on the other whoevers most liberal or if necessary has the best shot at keeping a republican out.

They don't matter, in terms of swinging the election. Also because the clear majority of those voters are in states that are basically decided before the vote.

Beyond that, I'll be looking at the election not in terms of who Trump vs Biden are as people, politicians, or candidates. Trump won it last time, not because of what he is, but because of what he isn't, ie. not a career politician. Unless Trump shoots himself completely in the foot and makes himself unelectable, I'll be looking at this and trading it as an election of what sort of leadership the US (in swing states) seems to want.

Does the public want a no-bullshit-cowboy (notably towards the elite and China) or the more steady hand of a career politician leading them in the aftermath of the Corona sitaution?

Trump can still afford some mouth diarrhea, if he's able to spin it into being the political system - exemplified by Biden - that's the problem and reason behind the corona being worsened (and not his slow response). The war with governors is neatly lined up to become, at the most opportune time, an all out attack on state bureaucracy being at fault. I'll be looking at a lot more at public response to this Trump vs governors than anything Biden does.