US Presidential Election 2020

[Naffman]

What sort of price was Trump in the lead-up to the last election?

Don't quote me on this but I think Trump was double the price this time 4 years ago.

Biden dodging the packing of the SC question will really start to hurt him now I think.

[Anbell]

What sort of price was Trump in the lead-up to the last election?

Don't quote me on this but I think Trump was double the price this time 4 years ago.

Biden dodging the packing of the SC question will really start to hurt him now I think.

Here's November

image_2020-10-11_185358.png

[jamesedwards]

What sort of price was Trump in the lead-up to the last election?

Don't quote me on this but I think Trump was double the price this time 4 years ago.

Biden dodging the packing of the SC question will really start to hurt him now I think.

Here's November

image_2020-10-11_185358.png

Thanks. Trump now 3.4 to back. Seems crazy value to me but we shall see...

[Naffman]

Right then so been looking and comparing the 12 key swing states from 2016 using the 538 average (has a left wing bias but averages all the polls) and there are some key similarities from just over 3 weeks out then to now (was Trump's worst polling numbers at that stage alike to now)

I'll put down the State - Mid-Oct.'16 poll - current '20 poll - final '16 poll - result '16

CO D8 - D12 - D4.1 - D4.9
FL D4.2 - D4.5 - D.6 - R1.2
IO D1.4 - D1 - R2.9 - R9.5
Mich. D9.1 - D8 - D4.2 - R.3
Minn. D7.7 - D9.2 - D5.8 - D1.5
NV D4.3 - D6.8 - D1.2 - D2.4
NH D8.6 - D10.8 - D3.6 - D.3
NC D3.4 - D2.9 - D.7 - R3.6
OH D2.1 - D.7 - R1.9 - R8.1
PA D7.8 - D7.3 - D3.7 - R.7
VA D10 - D12.7 - D5.3 - D5.4
Wisc. D8.2 - D7.2 - D5.3 - R.7

Btw D is democrat and R is republican

Trump was 6.6pts down nationally in 2016 just over 3 weeks out, this year he is 10.4pts down but looking at the usual swing states there really isn't much difference.

[Derek27]

Looks like it's the end of the road for Trump now.

[Naffman]

Looks like it's the end of the road for Trump now.

?

I guess Biden is running for senate now anyway

[Derek27]

Looks like it's the end of the road for Trump now.

?

I guess Biden is running for senate now anyway

I had just heard a damming report on Sky News about Trump support free-falling. I'm struggling to understand how anyone can vote for him with all the crap coming out of his mouth, but I suppose I thought that last time, albeit to a lesser extent.

[jamesedwards]

Looks like it's the end of the road for Trump now.

?

I guess Biden is running for senate now anyway

I had just heard a damming report on Sky News about Trump support free-falling. I'm struggling to understand how anyone can vote for him with all the crap coming out of his mouth, but I suppose I thought that last time, albeit to a lesser extent.

All I can see is media and social media ramping. I can't see anything different now to 5 years ago. I still think we will be stuck with a further 5 years of Trump unless Biden significantly ups his game.

[LeTiss]

The problem is the Democrats have some absolute sewer rats in their midst......Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar are far more dangerous to the the future of USA than Trump.

Vote for Biden abd you vote for these individuals

[Derek27]

The problem is the Democrats have some absolute sewer rats in their midst......Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar are far more dangerous to the the future of USA than Trump.

Vote for Biden abd you vote for these individuals

Never heard of them, but if that's the case, the US is well and truly screwed!

[Trader Pat]

The problem is the Democrats have some absolute sewer rats in their midst......Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar are far more dangerous to the the future of USA than Trump.

Vote for Biden abd you vote for these individuals

I think AOC and Omar are more dangerous to the future of the Democratic party than to the country as a whole. There's going to be a massive struggle within the party going forward, AOC and Omar are way further to the left than the likes of Biden so maybe the party will split in two and give voters a genuine third option in the future.

As for the polls Naffman is right, a lot of the polls look similiar to 4 years ago but the big difference is BIden is polling above 50% in some key swing states and nationally, Clinton never got near 50% think the highest she was was 46%. And no challenger to an incumbent in the history of polls has been over 50% at this stage in an election season.

Also worth remembering that Biden is outspending Trump by nearly $100m on tv and radio advertising down the stretch. Trump has stopped advertising altogether in some key states including Ohio and Iowa which he probably needs to win. He's puled advertising in those states to the tune of $17m so obviously his campaign isn't in great condition financially compared to Biden's.

[Emmson]

The problem is the Democrats have some absolute sewer rats in their midst......Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar are far more dangerous to the the future of USA than Trump.

Vote for Biden abd you vote for these individuals

"sewer rats"

Is this the kind of tone that made Shaun White want to walk away? Nonsense on stilts anyway.

[Naffman]

The Rasmussen Poll that gave Biden a 12pt advantage claims that Trump will only win 76% Republican votes despite getting 94% in the primaries earlier this year.

At the end of September his GOP approval rating is 94%.

Every bit of data points to a Trump blowout bar the polls.

We will see which one is right come November.

[Trader Pat]

I think you have to take all the national polls with a pinch of salt as they only show the estimated % chance of winning the popular vote and you have to factor in a margin of error as well. They'll probably tighten the closer we get to election day.

Its the polls in the battleground states that are really interesting, they show Biden up comfortably in most of them. I wouldn't put my life savings on it but if the polls are proved to be this wrong when the election is over then the pollsters should be out of a job

[Kafkaesque]

The problem is the Democrats have some absolute sewer rats in their midst......Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar are far more dangerous to the the future of USA than Trump.

Vote for Biden abd you vote for these individuals

Can qualify this?

Do you disregard it being dangerous or don't believe it to be true that Trump is A) doing everything within reach to make an election in a democracy be as un-democratic as possible, B) ignoring the precedent set by his own party four years prior on SCOTUS nominations, C) turning SCOTUS - the moral and legal compass of the US - into something which will bring the nation towards a religious dogma, and away from a modern society, D) pandering to white supremacists, who're ready to commit domestic terrorism. ????

Or do you simply feel that's a goal over means scenario, because you agree with the political direction?

Which actions do you see AOC and Omar being able to take, if Biden becomes president? Moreover, how do come to conclusion that 2 (!!!) members of a 435 (!!!) house of reps (who may or may not be given a position within a potential Biden administration) - in a trident of checks and balances between House of Reps, Senate, and the president - can cause more dangerous actions with regards to future of a nation, than someone holding full power over one part of the trident?

Are there truly actions, you're foreseeing as dangerous?

Or do you simply feel that a society moving in the opposite direction of your political observation is "dangerous" by definition? And you somehow feel comfortable stating it as fact, with as a different forum member noted, a slur in there.

There's any number of politicians where I, to varying degrees, disagree with their policy and where they're looking to take their countries. Where I would use the word - I don't know - unfortunate or regretable. But dangerous is such a hyberbole statement, which shouldn't be used lightly. What's dangerous is the actions of Trump, I started out with. Danger is leaders flirting with abolishing democracy.