Trading What I see !?
It is possible to have a very profitable strategy and yet to have quite long drawdown periods which as you streamline the strategy will become smaller and rarer. Don't forget to use the minimum stakes and not in relation to your bank size.goat68 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pmBot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
Indeed the equity curve doesn't look very promising but I would continue to run the original strategy until I notice that it is unprofitable in absolutely all conditions and separately I would run other modified versions until I find useful lurking variables (they are there... just... lurking).
I don't remember what your strike rate is? If it was around 50% or more, apply the following strategy....goat68 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pmBot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
If I lose 3 times in a row in one day, the bot will shut down for the whole day.
There are days that have liquidity and days that have less liquidity....
If you divide the races by days of the week, I suspect that the worst days are Sunday, Monday and Tuesday... I think it's pretty likely that your BOT will work well tomorrow.
Screen the individual days with a filter like the one I suggested.... What do you think?
Nice idea thanksvhdgkl wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:29 amI don't remember what your strike rate is? If it was around 50% or more, apply the following strategy....goat68 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:17 pmBot has had an awful 2 days, all of last weeks profit gone and more.. Plus an extra double wammy of a bug in a rule which cost me an extra -£3. Just give me a break please....!?
Anyway bug fixed, will let it run the week, then evaluate again.
I really don't know how anyone makes a profit in these markets.
If I lose 3 times in a row in one day, the bot will shut down for the whole day.
There are days that have liquidity and days that have less liquidity....
If you divide the races by days of the week, I suspect that the worst days are Sunday, Monday and Tuesday... I think it's pretty likely that your BOT will work well tomorrow.
Screen the individual days with a filter like the one I suggested.... What do you think?
Although with Guardian I am not sure you can store 'state' across markets?
Hmm, bot not doing much better today so far... all losers so far. But I can't blame bot, I just watched 1 race, a Mdn, and at 5mins there was a sudden move with volume, my bot got onboard, and as seems common nowadays after the move the market just chunders around going no-where, as though all the traders are trying to work it but to no avail... basically an efficient market. Someone puts a large order in, which you cannot predict, the market "shifts" then just stays there....
Anyway, the rule bug is fixed, which means my losses are small now.
Anyway, the rule bug is fixed, which means my losses are small now.
Hmm, bots progress today: 9 markets, 9 losses, -£4.85
I'm just going upstairs to disable my Automation!!
I've had enough of the current settings, it needs a good tweak! I'm actually thinking since it seems to be very good at losing to reverse some logic. I suspect my "model" i've based it on is incorrect.
I'm just going upstairs to disable my Automation!!
I've had enough of the current settings, it needs a good tweak! I'm actually thinking since it seems to be very good at losing to reverse some logic. I suspect my "model" i've based it on is incorrect.
Well, you need big moves to make up for such long negative series. You have to choose wisely where you put the stop loss otherwise it makes your "model"useless.
Agree, and I hope I am giving them room. The bug I had in my rule yesterday actually meant I had no stop loss for my Back bets, and it resulted in an extra £3+ of losses.
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Trader Pat
- Posts: 4327
- Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm
For what its worth Goat I think you should try minimum stakes with no stop loss at all. Yes you'll get relatively larger losses but you should also get larger greens unless there is something fundamentally wrong with your strategy. Your strike rate will also improve as you're not getting stopped out all the time. Its also easier to then identify what went wrong with the losses when you have no stop loss confusing the issue.
Also if you're not watching the market and you get stopped out you won't know if your trade would have worked or not.
I obviously don't know what your strategy is but when I say minimum stakes I don't mean firing 10 orders of £2 into the market I mean just 1 stake. It won't make you rich but it should help you see whats works and what doesn't.
Also if you're not watching the market and you get stopped out you won't know if your trade would have worked or not.
I obviously don't know what your strategy is but when I say minimum stakes I don't mean firing 10 orders of £2 into the market I mean just 1 stake. It won't make you rich but it should help you see whats works and what doesn't.
I am using 2x£2 stakes as I have a £2 take some profit order and let the remaining £2 ride..Trader Pat wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:29 pmFor what its worth Goat I think you should try minimum stakes with no stop loss at all. Yes you'll get relatively larger losses but you should also get larger greens unless there is something fundamentally wrong with your strategy. Your strike rate will also improve as you're not getting stopped out all the time. Its also easier to then identify what went wrong with the losses when you have no stop loss confusing the issue.
Also if you're not watching the market and you get stopped out you won't know if your trade would have worked or not.
I obviously don't know what your strategy is but when I say minimum stakes I don't mean firing 10 orders of £2 into the market I mean just 1 stake. It won't make you rich but it should help you see whats works and what doesn't.
I do watch the occaisional market when I can, but I also examine my extensive logging in the evening.
I will check over my stop and maybe widen it a bit, thanks for the tip