Trading What I see !?

[ShaunWhite]

So you're being a bit hopeful there Shaun with bring PC up ! I think my lifetime net loss match betting on Betfair was -£200 with £400 of commission generated.

£1 profit and >250 markets and you potentially qualify so it's never to late to start thinking about it. In fact anyone who isn't thinking about PC mitigation early on it isn't planning on winning long term.

£12, 1000 bets, +£750 net....iro 6¼%
That's a decent start for a backtest, they usually slip about 30% (?) going live so you ought to be left with 4%+ which is the realm of believable.

How did your in sample and out of sample tests compare, similar?

[decomez6]

edge !

goat 2.gif

[goat68]

So you're being a bit hopeful there Shaun with bring PC up ! I think my lifetime net loss match betting on Betfair was -£200 with £400 of commission generated.

£1 profit and >250 markets and you potentially qualify so it's never to late to start thinking about it. In fact anyone who isn't thinking about PC mitigation early on it isn't planning on winning long term.

£12, 1000 bets, +£750 net....iro 6¼%
That's a decent start for a backtest, they usually slip about 30% (?) going live so you ought to be left with 4%+ which is the realm of believable.

How did your in sample and out of sample tests compare, similar?

So that graph is my "whole" sample, fairly linear 97.7% so in & out of sample within that would not vary much.

[goat68]

So you're being a bit hopeful there Shaun with bring PC up ! I think my lifetime net loss match betting on Betfair was -£200 with £400 of commission generated.

£1 profit and >250 markets and you potentially qualify so it's never to late to start thinking about it. In fact anyone who isn't thinking about PC mitigation early on it isn't planning on winning long term.

£12, 1000 bets, +£750 net....iro 6¼%
That's a decent start for a backtest, they usually slip about 30% (?) going live so you ought to be left with 4%+ which is the realm of believable.

How did your in sample and out of sample tests compare, similar?

I'm wary of backtest now, especially from advice from Michael, so it gives me more of a confirmation that it has a potential, what I am more happy with is roughly knowing why it may have an "edge". The real test is throwing £100 quid at it!

[Anbell]

So that graph is my "whole" sample, fairly linear 97.7% so in & out of sample within that would not vary much.

There will be heart attacks.

[Kai]

So that graph is my "whole" sample, fairly linear 97.7% so in & out of sample within that would not vary much.

There will be heart attacks.

There will be shark attacks.

[goat68]

So that graph is my "whole" sample, fairly linear 97.7% so in & out of sample within that would not vary much.

There will be heart attacks.

Why follow the crowd? Try something different!

[wearthefoxhat]

So that graph is my "whole" sample, fairly linear 97.7% so in & out of sample within that would not vary much.

There will be heart attacks.

Why follow the crowd? Try something different!

+1

crowd.png

[ShaunWhite]

Why follow the crowd? Try something different!

Depends which crowd you're following.

[goat68]

So HorseBot going through a poor drawdown, but glad DogBot is holding the fort could have been a nasty day, but DogBot had a great day:

Screenshot 2021-08-25 at 18.57.08.png

[Trader Pat]

So HorseBot going through a poor drawdown, but glad DogBot is holding the fort could have been a nasty day, but DogBot had a great day:
Screenshot 2021-08-25 at 18.57.08.png

It's always hard to tell if that's luck, variance, skill or a mix of all three but it still looks like progress from where you came from so well done!

[goat68]

So HorseBot going through a poor drawdown, but glad DogBot is holding the fort could have been a nasty day, but DogBot had a great day:
Screenshot 2021-08-25 at 18.57.08.png

It's always hard to tell if that's luck, variance, skill or a mix of all three but it still looks like progress from where you came from so well done!

Definite progress, I will publish my August results on 31st...fingers crossed for my first "profitable" month

[goat68]

Great day for both bots today:

Screenshot 2021-08-26 at 21.32.00.png

[Euler]

Well done, good to see!

[goat68]

Well done, good to see!

Thank you, very pleased with progress.
Although nice to see a day like today, it's looking at PnL from a "monthly" perspective for these sort of bots gives a smoother perspective on the variance. August is going very well, mainly due to "DogBot" that has been stella, it does have the bigger edge. "HorseBot" started well then drewdown quite a bit, but I know it has smaller edge and larger variance so is a great "commission generator". My current commission-to-profit for the month is 14% mainly thanks to "HorseBot".