Trading What I see !?

[ShaunWhite]

I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?

[goat68]

I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?

They're just "bets" stats, a trade is one back bet and one lay bet....

[ShaunWhite]

I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?

They're just "bets" stats, a trade is one back bet and one lay bet....

So your back total is where you open with a back then close? Lay total is lay first then close?

I was just confused about how you got separate back and lay net totals. I thought you'd somehow attributed 1/2 of your commission to each 1/2 of your pair of bets.

[goat68]

I'm a bit confused how you can separate back and lay pl unless that's gross, do you only do one or the other in each market?

They're just "bets" stats, a trade is one back bet and one lay bet....

So your back total is where you open with a back then close? Lay total is lay first then close?

I was just confused about how you got separate back and lay net totals. I thought you'd somehow attributed 1/2 of your commission to each 1/2 of your pair of bets.

Sorry let me explain fully.
Those are just back and lay stats showing bet net PnL before commission.

Let me give you the latest key figures in full, my analysis spits out a lot of data... the following is "pruned" !, total actuall PnL after commission in bold:
Number of markets = 145
Number of selections = 1088
Number of Backs = 532
Number of Lays = 556
Back profit = 136.13
Lay profit = -109.10
Strike Rate = 43 %
Implied Back Odds = 2.34
Implied Lay Odds = 1.75
Avg bet price = 8.00
Avg bet size = 5.01
Avg weighted odds = 5.35
Yield avg bet size = 12.90
Yield avg wghted odds = 2.08
Yield = 0.16 %
Wins = 62
Losses = 83
Av Win = 4.03
Av Loss = -2.75
Biggest Win = 12.49
Biggest Loss = -10.57
Highest Hi = 61.59
Lowest Lo = -9.83
Biggest Drawdown = -46.37
Longest win streak = 4
Longest lose streak = 10
Total profit = 21.93
Turn Over % = 0.16 %
Commission = 5.00 (22.81 %)

Offered = 2621
Matched = 1088
Matched = 41.5 %

Week 1 Back : 136.13
Week 1 Lay : -109.10
Week 1 TOTAL : 27.03 for 1088 bets

[goat68]

Here's Previous vs Latest model, looks like an improvement so far... not exactly huge amount of profit, but better is good!

Screenshot 2021-11-27 at 20.16.26.png

[goat68]

just had email spam from Amazon.co.uk, suggesting books I might be interested in.... scary how much Amazon know!!!!

Screenshot 2021-11-27 at 21.00.32.png

[andy28]

I notice non say profitable

[goat68]

I notice non say profitable

yeah good spot, better change my search terms!!

[jamesg46]

just had email spam from Amazon.co.uk, suggesting books I might be interested in.... scary how much Amazon know!!!!
Screenshot 2021-11-27 at 21.00.32.png

Your search habits seem desperate!.

[ShaunWhite]

...... stats showing bet net PnL before commission.

OK. Our slight misunderstanding is because of the terminology. Net pl is after commission, gross pl is before commission. I think you're using 'net' to refer to the sum of (the gross back and gross lay amounts). Net and gross work just like your payslip, if you made £100 basic and £50 in overtime you wouldn't say you'd netted £150. You'd gross £150 and net is after tax.

Stick to just looking at net (ie take home pay). Personally I never even look at gross as it's misleading because sometimes a lesser gross can actually result in a better net.

Eg if you've got a load of markets were you make £1 gross or lose 99p your gross increases but you're net losing money because the wins are actually only 98p. Take those out and gross reduces but net increases.

[goat68]

...... stats showing bet net PnL before commission.

OK. Our slight misunderstanding is because of the terminology. Net pl is after commission, gross pl is before commission. I think you're using 'net' to refer to the sum of (the gross back and gross lay amounts). Net and gross work just like your payslip, if you made £100 basic and £50 in overtime you wouldn't say you'd netted £150. You'd gross £150 and net is after tax.

Stick to just looking at net (ie take home pay). Personally I never even look at gross as it's misleading because sometimes a lesser gross can actually result in a better net.

Eg if you've got a load of markets were you make £1 gross or lose 99p your gross increases but you're net losing money because the wins are actually only 98p. Take those out and gross reduces but net increases.

You're making more of a point than needed of this, I know all this...
The Back and Lay stats are purely there to see, what side is winning...nothing more

[goat68]

Anyway, found a slightly bug in my hedge logic... so tweaked, and reset both strategies for the new week... will see how they get on...

[ShaunWhite]

I know all this...

The post I was refering to looked like you were comparing the total gross returns. I apologise if you already knew this was meaningless.

So updated model strategy still positive, and ahead of previous model running in parallel:

New model:
Week 1 Back : 192.40
Week 1 Lay : -158.40
Week 1 TOTAL : 34.00 for 979 bets

Previous model:
Week 1 Back : -193.12
Week 1 Lay : 163.87
Week 1 TOTAL : -29.25 for 1148 bets

[goat68]

I know all this...

The post I was refering to looked like you were comparing the total gross returns. I apologise if you already knew this was meaningless.

So updated model strategy still positive, and ahead of previous model running in parallel:

New model:
Week 1 Back : 192.40
Week 1 Lay : -158.40
Week 1 TOTAL : 34.00 for 979 bets

Previous model:
Week 1 Back : -193.12
Week 1 Lay : 163.87
Week 1 TOTAL : -29.25 for 1148 bets

no don't apologise Shaun, my fault for posting misleading figures. I'll post the market PnL comparison graph next time, like above, that's more useful and accurate.
cheers

[goat68]

These greyhound markets are so bot driven, Doncaster delayed by an hour, but >7k traded up to original start time, hardly anything since!!