Goal time stats

[ebasson61]

Hi, I did ask this question on the Betfair forum, but with the small response I'd like to also ask it here and see if I get more of a consensus. I'd particularly like to hear from Peter or any of the Betangel team to see what they do.

This season I'm gathering and formulating my own goal time stats, but:

If there has been one game with a goal after ten minutes, then the average goal time is 10 minutes. If the next game is 0-0, what should be done with the stats?

1) Include the 0-0 game, therefore average goal time is now 5 minutes.
2) Exclude the 0-0 game, therefore average goal time stays at 10 minutes.
3) Add 90 minutes, therefore average goal time is 50 minutes.

Presently I'm using scenario 2), but is this correct?

Thanks for any advice or comment.

[SpikeyBob]

My view would be to use option 3 unless you are planning to use a strategy that only includes games that have goals in them and if you knew that already then you would be a very rich person .

[dan_payne182]

1) is just wrong, including a 0-0 game would make the average time per goal longer not shorter.

the answer is 3. But also its not actually 90 minutes. You need to include minutes of stopage time in each half to give a true average goal time.

[ebasson61]

Okay, thanks for your replies guys. Much appreciated. I didn't think 1) was a possiblity but included it nonetheless.

The more I consider it, the more I agree with both of you. Thanks.

[Bet Angel]

It depends on the question really. Are you asking what is the average time for the first goal and should I include 0-0 in those calculations?

You should use 0-0 in your calculations but probably not in the manner in which you are using them. It will only take a few weekends of matches before you have a good approximation, so you will know if you are on track or not fairly quickly.

We managed to distill the process down to very fine calcution so last year we ended the season only seconds out on the average time of first goal over the whole season.

[ebasson61]

Thanks for that. I am indeed interested in the average time of the first goal. I think this is a stat that most people don't seem to consider but that I feel is key to opening/closing positions.

I agree that I'm not using 0-0 correctly at present, and indeed I have been adjusting my DB this very morning.

Once again, thanks for your input.

[Bet Angel]

Expected average time of first goal today in minutes i.e. 32.50 is 32m30s. Order from earliest to latest.

Rangers vs Kilmarnock - First goal : 27.92
Wigan vs Blackpool - First goal : 31.44
Ipswich vs Burnley - First goal : 32.04
Aston Villa vs West Ham - First goal : 32.17
Blackburn vs Everton - First goal : 33.21
Bolton vs Fulham - First goal : 33.58
Leicester vs Middlesbrough - First goal : 33.8
Sheff Utd vs QPR - First goal : 34.07
Sunderland vs Birmingham - First goal : 34.31
Millwall vs Hull - First goal : 34.53
Wolves vs Stoke - First goal : 35.53

[ebasson61]

A lot of early goals or 0-0s (so far) within your list. Just goes to show that, when building up average-type stats, there will always be a scattering of scores along the bell curve.

Thanks for providing these though.

[auldsoldier]

I do not tend to use average times as the distribution is usually too great (ie a goal in 5 mins in one match can be balanced with a goal in 85 mins in the next.

I work out the distributions instead by 5 min windows. ie how many matchs is a goal scored in 0-5 mins, 6-10mins etc.

[ebasson61]

Hi Soldier. Yes, I also do this, although with a lesser granularity. I log each ten minute spell matching the first goal odds market on Betfair. Well worth doing.