Renk's Win Lay System

[The Silk Run]

You cad you Dex

[Derek27]

You cad you Dex

It's like watching someone fill up a bucket of water oblivious to a glaring leak. I'm only trying to help.

[Renk]

Hello everyone; first rally goes very well it is %100 strike rate at the moment with 11 wins out of 11 selections.

Today I did not like Kempton and Lingfield cards. I've just picked two lay horses. Let me explain that;

First one is in Lingfield-Race 8-Central City. This is a race will be running not that fast and Central City is not a type of horse who will make benefit from this slow/even pace. Horse is obviously out of form although carries a heavy weights. Apprantice is a 7lb claimer who never won a race so far, also this rider ran 7 times with this horse and they did nothing. As a result I do not see any chance for this horse here. Current odds for him is 23/1 on exchange market. So I lay this horse.

Second selection is in Kempton Park-Race 5-Rakematiz. There is a big fav in this race and I think it has every chance here. My lay selection carries heavier weight than fav. It is a 8 years old gelding who is out of from currently which is obvious. He finished 13 length behind the winner in a similar race over 12 furlongs like today last time out. I won't expect more to come from this gelding tonight. This is currently 24/1 in the market. I pick this as a second lay selection for today.

See you after race results.

Second lay selection won too. Very well results today. 2/2 We are now 13/13 and %100 strike rate. There are 12 to go. Hopefully it is gonna be alright at the end of this rally. You can see current results on google drive link.

Currently we are +130.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

[wearthefoxhat]

Hello everyone; first rally goes very well it is %100 strike rate at the moment with 11 wins out of 11 selections.

Today I did not like Kempton and Lingfield cards. I've just picked two lay horses. Let me explain that;

First one is in Lingfield-Race 8-Central City. This is a race will be running not that fast and Central City is not a type of horse who will make benefit from this slow/even pace. Horse is obviously out of form although carries a heavy weights. Apprantice is a 7lb claimer who never won a race so far, also this rider ran 7 times with this horse and they did nothing. As a result I do not see any chance for this horse here. Current odds for him is 23/1 on exchange market. So I lay this horse.

Second selection is in Kempton Park-Race 5-Rakematiz. There is a big fav in this race and I think it has every chance here. My lay selection carries heavier weight than fav. It is a 8 years old gelding who is out of from currently which is obvious. He finished 13 length behind the winner in a similar race over 12 furlongs like today last time out. I won't expect more to come from this gelding tonight. This is currently 24/1 in the market. I pick this as a second lay selection for today.

See you after race results.

Second lay selection won too. Very well results today. 2/2 We are now 12/12 and %100 strike rate. There are 13 to go. Hopefully it is gonna be alright at the end of this rally. You can see current results on google drive link.

Currently we are +130.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

Nope, you're 13/13 according to my maths. (so only 12 to go for the first rally) Onwards and upwards rodders!

[Derek27]

Hello everyone; first rally goes very well it is %100 strike rate at the moment with 11 wins out of 11 selections.

Today I did not like Kempton and Lingfield cards. I've just picked two lay horses. Let me explain that;

First one is in Lingfield-Race 8-Central City. This is a race will be running not that fast and Central City is not a type of horse who will make benefit from this slow/even pace. Horse is obviously out of form although carries a heavy weights. Apprantice is a 7lb claimer who never won a race so far, also this rider ran 7 times with this horse and they did nothing. As a result I do not see any chance for this horse here. Current odds for him is 23/1 on exchange market. So I lay this horse.

Second selection is in Kempton Park-Race 5-Rakematiz. There is a big fav in this race and I think it has every chance here. My lay selection carries heavier weight than fav. It is a 8 years old gelding who is out of from currently which is obvious. He finished 13 length behind the winner in a similar race over 12 furlongs like today last time out. I won't expect more to come from this gelding tonight. This is currently 24/1 in the market. I pick this as a second lay selection for today.

See you after race results.

Second lay selection won too. Very well results today. 2/2 We are now 13/13 and %100 strike rate. There are 12 to go. Hopefully it is gonna be alright at the end of this rally. You can see current results on google drive link.

Currently we are +130.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

Well done! You must feel really proud of yourself tipping a 1/23 shot!

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=19459

[andy28]

Sounds like you are value betting you think the horse you lay at 24/1 you think should be 50/1. Problem is your sample size is way to small, and as Derek pointed out that loser will come, and not only that but you could get 2 loses with in 25 races wiping out a large percentage of your bank.

Plus the main problem with virtual betting is you take out emotion which is a big part of gambling/trading, trust me on this, when you watch the race and see your liability climbing -40,-80, and you see your horse with the Apprentice on stalking the pace under a nice hold and the heavy fav under pressure 6 lengths away after missing the start, you will see your liability at -128, -146, -180........................ what do you do then?

I hope it works but even 500 races would still be too small to truly tell and if your only doing 2 a day that will take a long time, especially if it fails, your down a grand and wasted the best part of a year.

Up to you now keep posting them pre off, I will never wish bad luck on anyone so I really do hope it works out, but the maths says no

[Derek27]

Sounds like you are value betting you think the horse you lay at 24/1 you think should be 50/1.

That's not the case. He thinks in a 10-horse race he's got a 90% chance of winning, so he thinks it's got a 9/1 chance but he's happy to lay it at 23/1 because it's unlikely to win.

I will never wish bad luck on anyone...

I wouldn't wish bad luck on anyone, but if it's guaranteed to happen I'd wish it happens quickly so the victim doesn't waste as much time.

[Realrocknrolla]

4 pages. Love it!

[Renk]

Sounds like you are value betting you think the horse you lay at 24/1 you think should be 50/1. Problem is your sample size is way to small, and as Derek pointed out that loser will come, and not only that but you could get 2 loses with in 25 races wiping out a large percentage of your bank.

Plus the main problem with virtual betting is you take out emotion which is a big part of gambling/trading, trust me on this, when you watch the race and see your liability climbing -40,-80, and you see your horse with the Apprentice on stalking the pace under a nice hold and the heavy fav under pressure 6 lengths away after missing the start, you will see your liability at -128, -146, -180........................ what do you do then?

I hope it works but even 500 races would still be too small to truly tell and if your only doing 2 a day that will take a long time, especially if it fails, your down a grand and wasted the best part of a year.

Up to you now keep posting them pre off, I will never wish bad luck on anyone so I really do hope it works out, but the maths says no

Thank you so much friend, for your kind words. I really hoped that someone will be here making a constructive criticism about my effort. I am just trying to create a system and all of the others were making fun with me here. Thank you so much, I understand your point about the risks of the system. I agree with all of those. But I just want to try myself.

[Renk]

Hello everyone; I've just done my homework. So here 5 lay selections for tomorrow's Southwell Card. Odds are currently on live and I picked horses over those odds. Maybe you can make a pre-trade on laying these selections and then tomorrow you can cashing out. Especially I think that Khilwafy and Heat and Dust will be both huge drifters tomorrow in the market. Anyway here are my tomorrow selections.

Southwell Race 1-Khifwafy-11

7lb claimer who has never won a single race; trainer is out of form. Horse is significantly up in trip but on pedigree I don’t think it will handle this trip.

Southwell Race 2-Velma-15

Trainer and jockey both of them are out of form. Upper grade than last time out. First time out over course and course and distance.

Southwell Race 3-Fliss Floss-20

0/2 over this trip. Not a strong type. Out of form. Trainer and Jockey both are out of form too. No chance.

Southwell Race 5-Hobsons Bay-20

5lb claimer who is out of from, not a good rider. Horse carries top weight. On pedigree it did not looks a middle distance horse. Easy to look elsewhere.

Southwell Race 7-Heat and Dust-10

0 wins out of 12 runs. Significantly up in trip and first time cheekpieces but on pedigree there is no reason about this trip. It looks like an middle distance horse. L. Morris has 3 winners out of 64 rides in last 14 days. Easy to lay.


We are 13/13 at the moment and there is 12 to go. I shared 5 more and hopefully it is going to be 7 to go after these selections won.

Good luck everyone. As I said couple of times this is a system that is under-development. I test it virtually currently. Be careful about my selections.

Here is a link of google drive excel. You can follow on it if you want.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml

[Realrocknrolla]

[Derek27]

I really hoped that someone will be here making a constructive criticism about my effort.

I have, it's doomed to fail! If you're knowledgeable about form and pace, etc. why don't you look for value back bets? You could spot a 9/1 shot with a 4/1 chance and make 100% on your investment, instead of laying 23/1 shots that have a 24/1 chance and making pennies and at the same time risking £1000 to do so.

[Trader Pat]

Something starting to feel very familiar about this thread.. almost like deja vu

Adios!

[Derek27]

As I said couple of times this is a system that is under-development. I test it virtually currently. Be careful about my selections.

What exactly do you mean by being careful with your selections? Do you mean place small bets on them even though you're placing nothing?

[wearthefoxhat]

One experience I had "back in the day" was that I used to try and Lay bigger priced horses by setting up a bot to automate the process and run a Lay accumulator on 10 selections a day. (In essence backing the field 10 x 1.10 or 1.05 in a row)

One winning 10 Lay acca at 1.10 = 2.59. (although commission back then, at 5%, at each winning stage, made this lower)
One winning 10 Lay acca at 1.05 = 1.62.

The bot was set up to stop for the day at a losing bet.

I believed that with good money management, (1% of the bank) and a good lay selection method I could win consistently. I spent a while paper trading and tweaking the "strategy" and got it to the stage I had confidence in running it live. It's also important to remember, when laying on the exchange, you're potentially laying over the odds by 15%+ each time.

The live result was, 7 losing days in a row. (-7% of whole bank). When I looked as each winner that stopped the bot, I spotted something else I hadn't taken into account. This actually helped me look more at the area of value selections and how the market moves under certain conditions.

That was my experience, the OP may go 100+ in a row and beyond.