Renk's Win Lay System

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Kai
Posts: 6266
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Actually Renk, having just looked at your forum profile which links to your Twitter which then links to your Telegram group and Youtube channel I have another question.

It appears you have collected a good amount of followers everywhere. So are you working on a profitable betting strategy or a marketable product?

In other words, are you looking to profit from your bets or from your followers?
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

He said in one of his early posts that 'when' he confirms this as a profitable strategy he'll then look for 'investors'

Pretty obvious what this is :)
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Kai
Posts: 6266
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:42 pm
He said in one of his early posts that 'when' he confirms this as a profitable strategy he'll then look for 'investors'
Didn't see, only skimmed through the thread. Kahin was looking for 'investors' too, I suppose this is how the Turkish tipsters see the Brits, as 'investors' :)

I bet Peter allows these sorta first posts on purpose sometimes :D Who knows how much similar stuff would get through on a weekly basis, if forum had no filters whatsoever!
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Renk
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Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:24 pm
Location: Turkey
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Hello everyone I watched you closely and I've read all of your questions, and comments about me and my idea.

This is going to be a long post which include all your answers.

I am Renk; 25 years old. My profession is media worker, I work in a national television. I love horse racing and creating content over horse racing for 5 years in Turkey. Usually Turkish people has no chance to participate exhange betting. Instead we have American style pick 6 bets in horse racing. There is a pool; you try to predict 6 races of the card and pool divided among the winners. But later in 2017 I met with UK racing and fell in love. I watched it closely since then. I always admired how you guys are lucky to have different bookies, backing fixed odds and have chance to create different systems and etc. Anyway then I started tipping Uk races for my followers from all over the world. I have followers from UK; USA, Hong Kong and etc. I have nearly 10k followers on Twitter.

For your information I am not trying to fool anybody or I am not trying to find investors. Don't get me wrong. In my YouTube channel I create content to my Turkish followers and on my twitter and telegram I share tips for my foreign followers and turkish followers who has chance to bet on bookies over the world. I share my results clearly and not trying to fool anyone I am not a phony I just try to be a tipster who is know by everyone.

This trade idea is a whole different story. I have a friend who used to interested in this stuff. First I asked him this idea and he answered as you did to me. This is a stupid idea bro give up that how newbies thought when they first encountered with betfair. But I just wanted to do this nonetheless..

Because I am trying to achieve something different. I saw a topic "Maria's Lay System" on internet forums who is a fantastic story which took place in the past. Then I looked it a little bit. Thought then why I don't try my system virtually. Maria did that and became a legend. Why I don't become one? yes this seems meaningless and I know that cuz I am good at math. I see what I try.

I see this there is a chance of winning by 9/10 in a race when you lay a horse cuz it is only 1/10. But this is when you lay the outsider. But to make my system profitable or at least even, I'll be needing 1/96 chance winner at least and I know that too so don't say me you are trying impossible. I'm realized what I do.

The idea is; I do my homework and try to lay the odds between 10/1 and 24/1; I will be trying to finish at least 20 rallies which is about 500 selections. Then I'll be highlighting the losers. My idea is to get rid of losers and to avoid losing money and that is where trading takes place. I am good at analysing a live race. I think that and believe myself. In the end when I'll be investing with real money after 500 selections; I will be watching races; if my lay selection looks good during the race and it seems like gonna win the race I will be backing horse in play. By this way, I'll be avoiding that losers too. That's what I think about. If this does not make sense for you you can make your comments and we can talk about it I'll be happy to make that conversation.

Consequently; my idea at the moment is to achieve 500 lay selections; see the losers; highlight them and understand if I back them during race according to their in-race performances... I lay between 10/1 and 24/1, need %96 strike rate at the moment to avoid losing money. If I do %100 strike rate I'll be winning +240 but this is a 1/100 chance which is crazy so I know and aware that is impossible for evertime. That's why I think about this.
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Renk
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Location: Turkey
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Above I answered all the questions;

Now these are today's tips.

Wolverhampton Race 1-Broughtons Flare win lay 11,50
Wolverhampton Race 3-Bare Necessity win lay 12,50
Wolverhampton Race 4-Simulation Theory win lay 13,50
Wolverhampton Race 6-Ornate win lay 17.00

We are 18/18 at the moment. There are 7 to go for finishing first rally. After today's selections hopefully there will be only 3 more to go.

Here is excel link if you follow:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
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Kai
Posts: 6266
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

That does answer a lot of questions, even the rhetorical ones... but no real point in discussing your background or motives, would rather comment on your system instead.
Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:34 pm
My idea is to get rid of losers and to avoid losing money and that is where trading takes place. I am good at analysing a live race.
Sorry but still sounds like your basic loss aversion which is a common bias, you need losses in order to profit, it would be naive to expect reward without any risk. Coupled with the Dunning-Kruger effect where we overestimate our own ability etc. Point being, if you really are good at analyzing races inplay then surely you could come up with a better system than laying mispriced outsiders for huge liabilities. I would take trader over tipster any day, because when trading you don't care whether your selections win or lose.
Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:34 pm
Because I am trying to achieve something different.
Are you sure? I think most people try the very same thing when starting out, you see it everywhere. Someone I know blew everything they had on laying the same outsiders that you are virtually laying. I tried a similar approach as well when starting out, albeit on football laying CS, profit came quick at first and then when I upped the stakes it went away even quicker. Not saying that it can't work, just saying that it's a shit way of participating in these markets, don't see how you're going to become a legendary tipster by picking up pennies for huge liabilities when there is much more potential profit on the other side.
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ShaunWhite
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Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:34 pm
Because I am trying to achieve something different.
Why is it that so many people who discover horse betting think they have insight that hundereds of thousands of people have missed after 300 yrs of looking?!

There's zero need to do anything different, just stick to what works. And there is only one thing that does work, and that's to obtain prices that are on average better than the real world liklihood of those situations happening. End of.

So Renk, what odds would you put on you being right and all of us here being wrong?
(Bearing in mind that for some of us here this is our fulltime job, and some started betting 10 or 20 years before you were even born?)
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Euler
Posts: 24872
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Kai wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:55 pm
I bet Peter allows these sorta first posts on purpose sometimes :D Who knows how much similar stuff would get through on a weekly basis, if forum had no filters whatsoever!
We get a significant number of posts each day we need to moderate. Mainly spam trying to get backlinks, but also some really odd ones. Sometimes they never get past first base, but some feel like they need some education.

I saw this topic before anybody else and was minded to blat it. But another moderator approved it before I did anything. A few hours later it already had momentum, so it seemed like we should let it run to it's inevitable conclusion.

But I do think these sorts of threads are eye opening and remind everybody just what 95% of the market is doing. Bless them.
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Kai
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Euler wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 4:37 pm
But I do think these sorts of threads are eye opening and remind everybody just what 95% of the market is doing. Bless them.
No argument there! Educational as well to those that maybe need it the most.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:34 pm
The idea is; I do my homework and try to lay the odds between 10/1 and 24/1; I will be trying to finish at least 20 rallies which is about 500 selections. Then I'll be highlighting the losers. My idea is to get rid of losers and to avoid losing money and that is where trading takes place. I am good at analysing a live race. I think that and believe myself. In the end when I'll be investing with real money after 500 selections; I will be watching races; if my lay selection looks good during the race and it seems like gonna win the race I will be backing horse in play. By this way, I'll be avoiding that losers too. That's what I think about. If this does not make sense for you you can make your comments and we can talk about it I'll be happy to make that conversation.

Consequently; my idea at the moment is to achieve 500 lay selections; see the losers; highlight them and understand if I back them during race according to their in-race performances... I lay between 10/1 and 24/1, need %96 strike rate at the moment to avoid losing money. If I do %100 strike rate I'll be winning +240 but this is a 1/100 chance which is crazy so I know and aware that is impossible for evertime. That's why I think about this.
If you're good at maths, do an estimate of how many winners you'll get out of 500 selections and the average lay price?
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Poor Renk, everybody has seen this sort of thing so many times before, that nobody can be bothered to troll him for laying a winner.
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Renk
Posts: 27
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2022 6:24 pm
Location: Turkey
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Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:37 pm
Above I answered all the questions;

Now these are today's tips.

Wolverhampton Race 1-Broughtons Flare win lay 11,50
Wolverhampton Race 3-Bare Necessity win lay 12,50
Wolverhampton Race 4-Simulation Theory win lay 13,50
Wolverhampton Race 6-Ornate win lay 17.00

We are 18/18 at the moment. There are 7 to go for finishing first rally. After today's selections hopefully there will be only 3 more to go.

Here is excel link if you follow:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
Today we've faced with first lost of the rally. That is sad to have that but besides that it is also sad that Ornate placed 2nd which I've never thought this kind of scenario before the race.

It is now 21 winning lay selection out of 22 races. There are 3 more to go to finish first rally. Later we'll see hopefully a %96 strike rate.

Loss is £115,00 which brings our virtual balance to £1.095,00 which is +95 considering that the starting balance of £1.000,00. Anyway there are 3 more to go and we'll see the final results of the first rally tomorrow.

Here is a picture of excel.

Image
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3240
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:08 pm
Renk wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:37 pm
Above I answered all the questions;

Now these are today's tips.

Wolverhampton Race 1-Broughtons Flare win lay 11,50
Wolverhampton Race 3-Bare Necessity win lay 12,50
Wolverhampton Race 4-Simulation Theory win lay 13,50
Wolverhampton Race 6-Ornate win lay 17.00

We are 18/18 at the moment. There are 7 to go for finishing first rally. After today's selections hopefully there will be only 3 more to go.

Here is excel link if you follow:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... Cx/pubhtml
Today we've faced with first lost of the rally. That is sad to have that but besides that it is also sad that Ornate placed 2nd which I've never thought this kind of scenario before the race.

It is now 21 winning lay selection out of 22 races. There are 3 more to go to finish first rally. Later we'll see hopefully a %96 strike rate.

Loss is £115,00 which brings our virtual balance to £1.095,00 which is +95 considering that the starting balance of £1.000,00. Anyway there are 3 more to go and we'll see the final results of the first rally tomorrow.

Here is a picture of excel.

Image

On your last post you mentioned the Maria Lay System Thread and I can remember it "back in the day"and how it developed. The jury's out if she actually completed it using the full lay stakes, as the stakes would have been huge and getting on so early on in the day would have been unlikely. More likely she paper traded it towards the end.

However, I believe that it's achievable, say from £300 to £10,000. She never divulged the selection process, although I suspect she utilised the Adrian Massey ratings to some degree. It's not difficult to set up and produce your own ratings and convert them to odds for comparison.

To do something similar, the shorter range odds <11.00 need to focussed on and as already said, some form of value consideration made too. ie: Market over estimates the price and it steams, your evaluation estimates it to be a bigger price. = Lay value.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

You're wasting your breath Fox, Renk isn't interested in learning he's only interested in telling people what he's doing.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3240
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:14 pm
You're wasting your breath Fox, Renk isn't interested in learning he's only interested in telling people what he's doing.
Maybe Aristotle was right, back in the day....

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