boris and rishi partygate fines
I don't think anyone else wants the job right now. I think his challengers will sit tight until all the current issues (energy, making Brexit work, Ukraine, cost of living, covid economic fallout) are resolved (let's hope soon). So I imagine BJ will be around for a while yet.
But if all those issues are resolved I think the vultures will be circling.
But if all those issues are resolved I think the vultures will be circling.
Those issues won't be resolved anytime soon and I doubt his party will want him to lead them into the next election. The Wakefield by-election, assuming there will be one, will be interesting.greenmark wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:21 pmI don't think anyone else wants the job right now. I think his challengers will sit tight until all the current issues (energy, making Brexit work, Ukraine, cost of living, covid economic fallout) are resolved (let's hope soon). So I imagine BJ will be around for a while yet.
But if all those issues are resolved I think the vultures will be circling.
In terms of odds. Surely, the potential replacements will just try not to make a gaffe and wait for their opportunity.Derek27 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:27 pmThose issues won't be resolved anytime soon and I doubt his party will want him to lead them into the next election. The Wakefield by-election, assuming there will be one, will be interesting.greenmark wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:21 pmI don't think anyone else wants the job right now. I think his challengers will sit tight until all the current issues (energy, making Brexit work, Ukraine, cost of living, covid economic fallout) are resolved (let's hope soon). So I imagine BJ will be around for a while yet.
But if all those issues are resolved I think the vultures will be circling.
But I think you''re right. Any election between now and 2024 will inform on the mood of the electorate. But poitics is a twisty turny beast. Who knows what will emerge tomorrow or a year from now and everything in between.
Might be an idea to summarise the various markets around BJ and RS as a starting point.
Boris Johnson to resign before end April 30th?
No :1.13
Boris Johnson PM for 2022 Conservative Conference?
Yes: 1.32
Boris Johnson No Confidence vote in April 2022?
No: 1.02
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jamesedwards
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To me it seems only a small proportion of the public are as enraged by the gathering and drinks in the Number 10 workplace as the click-hungry media would have us believe.
It was, of course, of poor discretion but these people were probably working extremely stressful 80+ hour weeks at the time. If I was their boss I would have considered an occasional release of stress an essential part of retaining productivity and morale during a period of national emergency.
It was, of course, of poor discretion but these people were probably working extremely stressful 80+ hour weeks at the time. If I was their boss I would have considered an occasional release of stress an essential part of retaining productivity and morale during a period of national emergency.
The media keep mentioning people who've buried loved ones and were unable to give them a proper send-off or visit them in their last days and NHS staff working 12-hour shifts and observing the rules while the PM was partying, but I'm sure (as Chelsea scores while I write this) many people like me outside that group will still be absolutely livid about it. If he's still at the helm at the next election I'm pretty sure voters will remember it all.jamesedwards wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 8:10 pmTo me it seems only a small proportion of the public are as enraged by the gathering and drinks in the Number 10 workplace as the click-hungry media would have us believe.
It was, of course, of poor discretion but these people were probably working extremely stressful 80+ hour weeks at the time. If I was their boss I would have considered an occasional release of stress an essential part of retaining productivity and morale.
And I've just noticed, eatyourgreens is on first-name terms with the pair. I bet he was at the parties.
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jamesedwards
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I hope so. One party having a monopoly on power for too long can't be good for the country, and much better a centre-leaning Labour party wins in 2025 than some crazy far-left version we might otherwise end up with in 2030.
The market suggests that nobody has much confidence in the correct price. I thought there'd be a lot more action today.
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jamesedwards
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It seems unlikely that Boris will resign. Therefore you're relying on the party forcing him out and that feels less likely than previously given current security instability. Plus who would want the job right now? Much better for them to bin him off in 2023/24 ready for the next leader to have a good run at the election.
I just think the opposition are too eager to get Boris to resign, presumably they want a better opposition leader in so they can remain in opposition even longer 
They don't have to bang on about shouting you must resign NOW! if it's that obvious then the electorate will sort it out at the next election... It's as if they don't learn about Brexit and all that, if you shout too much about one thing hoping to get it, you will end up with the opposite! (Hmm seems like trading?!) What's going on in France could be another example, all their MPs and Media shouting we must not let Le Pen in, guess what people will get fed up of been told what to do and just vote Le Pen!! Just like Brexit, it's bad but I don't care!
They don't have to bang on about shouting you must resign NOW! if it's that obvious then the electorate will sort it out at the next election... It's as if they don't learn about Brexit and all that, if you shout too much about one thing hoping to get it, you will end up with the opposite! (Hmm seems like trading?!) What's going on in France could be another example, all their MPs and Media shouting we must not let Le Pen in, guess what people will get fed up of been told what to do and just vote Le Pen!! Just like Brexit, it's bad but I don't care!
The only market with any money in itjamesedwards wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:25 pmIt seems unlikely that Boris will resign. Therefore you're relying on the party forcing him out and that feels less likely than previously given current security instability. Plus who would want the job right now? Much better for them to bin him off in 2023/24 ready for the next leader to have a good run at the election.
"Boris Johnson PM for 2022 Conservative Conference?" is showing him at 1.29.
So I think you're right. Might be worth a punt, but with BJ ad the current volatility - how lucky do you feel? Him not leading into the next election might be a slam dunk. I think the Tory establishment is pretty fed up with him. But for some reason he has been popular so that is teflon coating politically. But long term I think he's toast.
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jamesedwards
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I'm quite sure the opposition don't want Boris gone, he's probably their best chance of a Labour or non-Tory coalition government in 2025. They just have to sound like they are laying into him to appease their supporters and avoid being deemed too weak.goat68 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:01 pmI just think the opposition are too eager to get Boris to resign, presumably they want a better opposition leader in so they can remain in opposition even longer
They don't have to bang on about shouting you must resign NOW! if it's that obvious then the electorate will sort it out at the next election... It's as if they don't learn about Brexit and all that, if you shout too much about one thing hoping to get it, you will end up with the opposite! (Hmm seems like trading?!) What's going on in France could be another example, all their MPs and Media shouting we must not let Le Pen in, guess what people will get fed up of been told what to do and just vote Le Pen!! Just like Brexit, it's bad but I don't care!
Does that market have money in it, two-figure sums and a 7-tick spread?
Other than the bonker US election market I haven't looked at political markets much but it seems nobody really wants to take a position in it.