Ever had such a golden run you feel uneasy?

[LinusP]

Ok problem found.

[Anbell]

Ok problem found.

You dont think anyone can beat BSP?

[firlandsfarm]

Ok problem found.

You dont think anyone can beat BSP?

Yeah, I'm not sure what you were referring to either Linus.

[LinusP]

Ok problem found.

You dont think anyone can beat BSP?

Yeah, I'm not sure what you were referring to either Linus.

We can assume that the BSP is accurate in terms of quantifying the chance of a horse winning a race, therefore betting into it is not going to make you money. This isn’t 100% and you can make money at BSP, for example the prices are actually more accurate at off time compared to BSP however any edge you have will be tiny.

I am not sure what you are doing but if you can bet 10mins + out and see if you are beating SP you can get a much better idea of the value of the strategy.

[Euler]

BSP isn't really Betfair starting price, it's Betfair Price After the Horses have run for about five seconds price or BPATHHRFAFS price.

So there is quite a gap between true price, market efficiency and BSP.

All my betting systems measure the price at post time as that appears to be the best way to understand what the 'true' price is. Either side of the quite a few inefficiencies exist.

[Derek27]

...or BPATHHRFAFS price.

Is that their official term?

[Anbell]

You dont think anyone can beat BSP?

Yeah, I'm not sure what you were referring to either Linus.

We can assume that the BSP is accurate in terms of quantifying the chance of a horse winning a race, therefore betting into it is not going to make you money. This isn’t 100% and you can make money at BSP, for example the prices are actually more accurate at off time compared to BSP however any edge you have will be tiny.

I am not sure what you are doing but if you can bet 10mins + out and see if you are beating SP you can get a much better idea of the value of the strategy.

I beat BSP.

[stueytrader]

Glad to see this original thread continued to have some added thoughts and interest.

So, I'd like to add a further (now longer term) update.

Since I last posted I've had some pretty sh1tty times at points (as would be predicted following some golden earning periods). However, I've also made some steady earnings periods appear at significant and maintained segments of the year, which were enough to keep me very stable overall.

So, how would I summarise my initial golden run and what followed? - not enough in isolation, but a fair basis from which to proceed moving forwards.

I would add - I don't think I could keep stable success without external fund sources (income streams). Not just because of the money that is reliable, but because it just keeps the approach consistent (for me at least).

I monitor my 'high points' (highest total bank overall – i.e. my trading banks + my personal finance in comparison to previous year highs) and I've hit it about 4 times this year at a new peak for the last 15 years or so. That isn't just trading but represents both earnings and trading. I've also slipped back several times, to significantly lower levels, the poor runs. But several times recovered enough to get back there. Currently I stand just below my all time high bank for the last 15 years. I suppose normal people, who don’t trade, would call that ‘savings’

What I now feel I need is to keep more consistent, whenever I hit the 'high point' or tidemark type of level. That's my current longer term project. Consistency, in my approach and returns has not always been my strong point. Though over the years my lack of consistency has become much more occasional, rather than the norm. I believe, that is a positive development.

[arbitrage16]

Good work. Sounds like you might be overly focused on outcome, rather than process, and that can really mess up one's ability to execute consistently, especially when under pressure. That pressure which is, of course, exacerbated by the outcome focus.

[stueytrader]

Good work. Sounds like you might be overly focused on outcome, rather than process, and that can really mess up one's ability to execute consistently, especially when under pressure. That pressure which is, of course, exacerbated by the outcome focus.

Good point, about all of this, yes.

I do suppose some of my points may have sounded outcome-focussed rather than process-focussed. That is actually deceptive though, as my implicit point has always been to maintain a positive process, which then allows the more positive outcomes to continue or be more reliably produced. I do realise that's not always clear when I'm talking about results as the measure.

I deliberately haven't discussed much about the specifics of my own process here, as that is really for a different post topic. Rather I've been considering how myself/others might look at it from the more global scale of success levels achieved, either short or longer term.

But you are spot on, process remains the key variable ultimately in producing these outcomes.

[stueytrader]

One additional key point relating to both process and outcome here:

I've found that a few times when I reach around the high point in my global bank something does often subtly change - maybe that is directly something about 'process' indeed, like you suggest. It's a bit like hitting a set level or point, and something makes it more difficult to continue positive process upward.

That likely goes right back to my OP, in that keeping an upward trajectory might be difficult - or maybe even simply a form of regression to the mean - I was more lucky in runs leading to my high point essentially, then the less lucky runs appear to bring it back down somewhat...

[arbitrage16]

It comes back to focusing on things that are out of your control. That second response is key, something subtly changing - you have met a goal, so the subconscious part of you now executes differently.

I think it will screw you over repeatedly until you are outcome independent.

[stueytrader]

It comes back to focusing on things that are out of your control. That second response is key, something subtly changing - you have met a goal, so the subconscious part of you now executes differently.

I think it will screw you over repeatedly until you are outcome independent.

Fair suggestions yes. Though I do think it's somewhat difficult to remove our thinking about outcomes and success - essentially that is why we do this strange thing called market trading in the first place, or at least it should be.

I'm in a much better place all-round than I have been in previous years for sure, so I'm kind of finding this reflection on progress a far more pleasant pursuit - sure beats reflecting on how big losses are across a period!