Just when you thought this had died a death... 6 months update
Is little Acorns genuine or a blag!?
- wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3232
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
Are you able to share any of the others you have with adjusted criteria?Atho55 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 4:06 pmHi Shaun, I can answer your queries.
1. It`s GB horses only not dogs and unsure why you think otherwise. Re sample size it is what it is. Ideally it should be bigger, but it is at least doing some observation instead of moving from discovery to testing live on small stakes which seems to be the advice generally given.
2. I did the backfitting or tweaking to find a set of odds that worked, and they have remained the same since the 15th Aug. All I do is refresh the Pivot tables from the data in the database.
3. It`s called Little Acorns so I don`t think it was ever meant to have hundreds of bets per day.
It`s easy to increase the bet count by adjusting the criteria. Have others being observed based upon the same generic idea such as Lay Rank 2, Lay Rank 3 when the odds on the other ranks hit threshold values but generally did them out of curiosity more than anything else
Bar running LA I don't do much else these days. Merry days of trading and advantage play betting/casino are long behind me.
I use a slightly modified system with Lay 1-4. It's poodled along nicely for a number of years, however, last quarter it's been absolutely slammed, with the win % down 10 points on a typical 3 month period.
Very tempted to knock it on the head, but do like to have a soupcon of skin still in the game.
I use a slightly modified system with Lay 1-4. It's poodled along nicely for a number of years, however, last quarter it's been absolutely slammed, with the win % down 10 points on a typical 3 month period.
Very tempted to knock it on the head, but do like to have a soupcon of skin still in the game.
You been playing level stakes long run? If so, have you seen much of a margin?HotStreak wrote: ↑Fri Jun 30, 2023 8:09 pmBar running LA I don't do much else these days. Merry days of trading and advantage play betting/casino are long behind me.
I use a slightly modified system with Lay 1-4. It's poodled along nicely for a number of years, however, last quarter it's been absolutely slammed, with the win % down 10 points on a typical 3 month period.
Very tempted to knock it on the head, but do like to have a soupcon of skin still in the game.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
"Little acrorns" is a strange choice of name, yeah it's a cheesy play on "....mighty oaks do grow" but the oak is just about the slowest growing tree there is !!
Is anyone using the Leylandii Cuttings strategy?
Is anyone using the Leylandii Cuttings strategy?
This is an update on the LA strategy which looks to agree with an earlier post re its decline in fortunes. IRE has not been updated yet so just GB Revised and Original.
Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline. Looking at BSP Ranks 1-3 and selecting and keeping a range of odds for each but changing the year(s) the average win win% can be seen (Gold cells)
Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline. Looking at BSP Ranks 1-3 and selecting and keeping a range of odds for each but changing the year(s) the average win win% can be seen (Gold cells)
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Thank you. Good info.Atho55 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 8:53 amThis is an update on the LA strategy which looks to agree with an earlier post re its decline in fortunes. IRE has not been updated yet so just GB Revised and Original.
LA Update.png
Having a look for the reason it looks like at least over a sample of BSP odds that Rank 1 is winning more than it has done historically over the few months of decline. Looking at BSP Ranks 1-3 and selecting and keeping a range of odds for each but changing the year(s) the average win win% can be seen (Gold cells)
Avg Win 2022.png
Avg Win 2023.png
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The top of the market BSP swings from being positive to negative over long periods, iro 6 months. People see its paying, they pile in so it reduces slowly and goes negative, then people slowly give up on it maybe seeing it's now lay value, and value starts to return. The issue is predicting when that tipping point happens.
Any strategy found in data has to pass the "why" test and I don't see a reason LA should work. Where's the 'why'?
That chart just looks like the output from a random strategy that's showing mean reversion to me.
- Brovashift
- Posts: 475
- Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am
What is a positive BSP vs a negative BSP, and is the top of the market the BSP Fav?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2023 11:35 amThe top of the market BSP swings from being positive to negative over long periods, iro 6 months. People see its paying, they pile in so it reduces slowly and goes negative, then people slowly give up on it maybe seeing it's now lay value, and value starts to return. The issue is predicting when that tipping point happens.
Any strategy found in data has to pass the "why" test and I don't see a reason LA should work. Where's the 'why'?
That chart just looks like the output from a random strategy that's showing mean reversion to me.
Is it referring to how accurately favs are priced over time? If it is, then it makes me think about the old adage "favs only win 1/3 of the time"... A third of what; 6months, 12 months... 5 years
My brain hurts already lol Be interesting to know though...