I thought I would try LA out again and I've attached a balance sheet since June. I've removed any information related to selections as strictly speaking this isn't LA in its purest form, I have made several tweaks and amendments to the original strategy but suffice to say every result is a horse layed under 2.0 (Average odds 1.89).
Starting balance £200 (was £100 but increased in August), closing balance £232. Starting stake was 0.20 with an aim to win just 0.10% per race in the first month and to increase this by 0.2% each month thereafter e.g 0.10, 0.12, 0.14 etc as a form of simple compounding. Naturally this sheet is just a slightly more detailed win/loss ratio but hopefully it might demonstrate that LA (or a version of) is possible?
Is little Acorns genuine or a blag!?
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MobiusGrey
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Have updated the figures on GB races. The Original concept losing but the Revised just in profit. The Data tables refer to the revised only.
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sionascaig
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sionascaig
- Posts: 1074
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Thanks Athos... If mini stakes it could be quite material due to rounding (as I'm sure you know) - just in case anyone starts getting excited about it )
Yes I agree. Anyone that interested could probably do it using the RHS data table as that`s the count of winning and losing bets by month. At least it`s transparent enough to make an informed decision to give it a punt or not.
After a considerable, and much needed, renaissance in the early Autumn, my version has tanked again, 9 race barren streak ATM.
Terminal decline or an outlier? Will sift through the data before deciding whether to dump, rest or tweak for 2024. It don't look good whatever.
Terminal decline or an outlier? Will sift through the data before deciding whether to dump, rest or tweak for 2024. It don't look good whatever.
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MobiusGrey
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- Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm
There was a winner yesterday at odds of 1.70 at Fontwell around 15.10. There haven't been 9 runs since to lose on?HotStreak wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:56 pmAfter a considerable, and much needed, renaissance in the early Autumn, my version has tanked again, 9 race barren streak ATM.
Terminal decline or an outlier? Will sift through the data before deciding whether to dump, rest or tweak for 2024. It don't look good whatever.
I say 1.70 that's the odds I got matched at.
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MobiusGrey
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Also the 13:50 at Exeter has just gone in at BSP at 1.77. You could've beaten that by a few ticks too if you were quick, I well and truly dropped the ball and got matched at 1.91 but still a nice winner in the end.HotStreak wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2023 9:56 pmAfter a considerable, and much needed, renaissance in the early Autumn, my version has tanked again, 9 race barren streak ATM.
Terminal decline or an outlier? Will sift through the data before deciding whether to dump, rest or tweak for 2024. It don't look good whatever.
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MobiusGrey
- Posts: 294
- Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm
Another one, 14:35, BSP was 1.97 which you could've smashed from about 1.80+, I'd urge you to tweak your selections/version you're using rather than give up.
Hi ,
I've recently finished with matched betting for the usual gubbing reasons and looking for an alternative.
I wondered if Little Acorns may be and alternative. I've seen a number of reviews and they all look fairly positive but quite old. Does anyone know of a recent review?
I've recently finished with matched betting for the usual gubbing reasons and looking for an alternative.
I wondered if Little Acorns may be and alternative. I've seen a number of reviews and they all look fairly positive but quite old. Does anyone know of a recent review?
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MobiusGrey
- Posts: 294
- Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:10 pm
Hi ,
I've recently finished with matched betting for the usual gubbing reasons and looking for an alternative.
I wondered if Little Acorns may be and alternative. I've seen a number of reviews and they all look fairly positive but quite old. Does anyone know of a recent review?
Sorry not sure about recent reviews of Little Acorn 'vanilla' unfortunately. I think most people here would run some form of variation of it based on own research. Little Acorn isn't some magic bullet it's basically built around the fact that odds on favourites are often over-bet and represent value, there's no reason this would ever fail to yield small gains, you would just need to sprinkle a little of your own edge on top.
Just to add; Bet Angel has some pretty useful tools that you can incorporate, the biggest tip I can give is think about how you can beat BSP more often than not.
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geoffjbaker
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Sat Nov 25, 2023 10:38 am
I would be very careful with any stake recovery plan however 'clever'. I was badly burned by a combination of the fib sequence and not being able to place a bet because I was driving meaning I had about 15 consecutive losers! Even if I hadn't missed that one horse still would have been down badly if I remember right.
Sorry for not replying before.MobiusGrey wrote: ↑Wed Dec 13, 2023 2:42 pmAnother one, 14:35, BSP was 1.97 which you could've smashed from about 1.80+, I'd urge you to tweak your selections/version you're using rather than give up.
Checked looked back and have no selections on 11th Dec.
I am using a bot (different software so won't mention it). Selections are made from 1min before post. I should be but I'm not 100% if post is the placement cutoff time. Will need to check. Edit - continues to bet unless selected otherwise, until in-play flag
Anyway, I have go on into the new year. Down both Jan and Feb so far.
Edit - I use Betdaq, which may add some (pricing) oddities. I may look to tweak a couple of settings inc the overrounds.