I read a lot of advice that if you have a trade which goes the wrong way, cash out a loss before the race starts.
I personally do not agree with this and would be interested to know what others think.
I personally believe that if say you’ve made a £100 trade hoping to see the odds come in but the odds go against you sharpish, fair enough if you can cash out for a minimal loss, then do so but if you’re facing a -£20 or higher loss I believe you should let the trade run as a bet and not lay off at any price.
If you always cash in a failed trade for 15% or more losses, those losses are going to rack up and always be a negative sum long term. If you let the trade run as a bet I believe you’ll be far closer to breaking even on the failed trades long term. I’ve followed thousands of races and seen so many horses who’s odds come in sharply fail to win and lots of horses who’s odds drift out massively win.
If you can get your failed trades to end up as not being a loss and then cash in on all your successful trades , your long term profits are going to improve significantly.
What are other people’s thoughts on this?
Let a failed trade go in play
Why is there a line at -£20?Stavros wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:40 amI read a lot of advice that if you have a trade which goes the wrong way, cash out a loss before the race starts.
I personally do not agree with this and would be interested to know what others think.
I personally believe that if say you’ve made a £100 trade hoping to see the odds come in but the odds go against you sharpish, fair enough if you can cash out for a minimal loss, then do so but if you’re facing a -£20 or higher loss I believe you should let the trade run as a bet and not lay off at any price.
If you always cash in a failed trade for 15% or more losses, those losses are going to rack up and always be a negative sum long term. If you let the trade run as a bet I believe you’ll be far closer to breaking even on the failed trades long term. I’ve followed thousands of races and seen so many horses who’s odds come in sharply fail to win and lots of horses who’s odds drift out massively win.
If you can get your failed trades to end up as not being a loss and then cash in on all your successful trades , your long term profits are going to improve significantly.
What are other people’s thoughts on this?
ETA it appears arbitrary. Why is there a rule to behave one way if you are losing X but another rule if you are losing Y?
Last edited by Anbell on Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Michael5482
- Posts: 1248
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If I understand your post your saying your already in the red but leave the red in the hope that the red becomes closer to the green over the longer term. Why this won't work is answered in detail in the other thread.
Not a personal dig but it does interest/surprise me is the amount of people who still post about letting negative trades ride hoping it'll green, insurance strategy's, loss recovery systems etc which are constantly rebuffed with data and mathematical logic but they still persist.
Not a personal dig but it does interest/surprise me is the amount of people who still post about letting negative trades ride hoping it'll green, insurance strategy's, loss recovery systems etc which are constantly rebuffed with data and mathematical logic but they still persist.
I'll try to be more helpful:Stavros wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:40 amI read a lot of advice that if you have a trade which goes the wrong way, cash out a loss before the race starts.
I personally do not agree with this and would be interested to know what others think.
I personally believe that if say you’ve made a £100 trade hoping to see the odds come in but the odds go against you sharpish, fair enough if you can cash out for a minimal loss, then do so but if you’re facing a -£20 or higher loss I believe you should let the trade run as a bet and not lay off at any price.
If you always cash in a failed trade for 15% or more losses, those losses are going to rack up and always be a negative sum long term. If you let the trade run as a bet I believe you’ll be far closer to breaking even on the failed trades long term. I’ve followed thousands of races and seen so many horses who’s odds come in sharply fail to win and lots of horses who’s odds drift out massively win.
If you can get your failed trades to end up as not being a loss and then cash in on all your successful trades , your long term profits are going to improve significantly.
What are other people’s thoughts on this?
If you expect to break even on the bets that you let run, then a) you will pay more commission b) your variance will be much higher.
Both of these things are bad.
Anbell, there is no line at £20. I was just giving an example of a trade that will take a significant hit if you cash in. I don’t think anyone minds taking a hit for a few pounds. There has to be a point where you can’t cash in. You surely wouldn’t cash in a loss of £50.
This is interesting as my data shows the opposite of what you are saying. I recorded 1200 races and my data shows that it is hugely more profitable to let a failed trade go in play. I found that where a favourites odds were between 2.0 and 3.0 at -12 mins to race schedule start time, the most successful horses that won… their odds either came in or drifted out significantly.Michael5482 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:09 amIf I understand your post your saying your already in the red but leave the red in the hope that the red becomes closer to the green over the longer term. Why this won't work is answered in detail in the other thread.
Not a personal dig but it does interest/surprise me is the amount of people who still post about letting negative trades ride hoping it'll green, insurance strategy's, loss recovery systems etc which are constantly rebuffed with data and mathematical logic but they still persist.
Apologies if that came across as hostile. It was a simple question.
I'm trying to help you think through the logic of what you have said, and what it means for your trading.
For example if you say "There has to be a point where you can’t cash in." the implication of that is that you are about to take a much bigger risk that you hadnt planned on taking.
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Michael5482
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm
1200 races isn't a particular big sample size, probably just over a months worth of race data I'd estimate that at. Sounds a bit back fitted to me in all honesty that it only works on odds between 2.00 and 3.00. Maybe luck at play due to the small sample size?Stavros wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 9:06 amThis is interesting as my data shows the opposite of what you are saying. I recorded 1200 races and my data shows that it is hugely more profitable to let a failed trade go in play. I found that where a favourites odds were between 2.0 and 3.0 at -12 mins to race schedule start time, the most successful horses that won… their odds either came in or drifted out significantly.Michael5482 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 16, 2023 8:09 amIf I understand your post your saying your already in the red but leave the red in the hope that the red becomes closer to the green over the longer term. Why this won't work is answered in detail in the other thread.
Not a personal dig but it does interest/surprise me is the amount of people who still post about letting negative trades ride hoping it'll green, insurance strategy's, loss recovery systems etc which are constantly rebuffed with data and mathematical logic but they still persist.
Possibly look at how to reduce your losses against BSP instead of leaving them to go in play. Longer term this is would be the sensible way forward IMO
I do wish you luck with your endeavors whichever way you choose to proceed.
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ShaunWhite
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If you're red at the off you're holding a poor value position (ie avg odds are worse than BSP). Don't let it run.
You're probably going to have between 1/2 and 1/4 of your markets showing a loss. Just stick to the advice Peter gives and close your position. If letting them run was better then he'd say that. He's been doing this very successfully full time for over 2 decades and you aren't going to find much he hasn't already thought about and proved one way or the other.
You're probably going to have between 1/2 and 1/4 of your markets showing a loss. Just stick to the advice Peter gives and close your position. If letting them run was better then he'd say that. He's been doing this very successfully full time for over 2 decades and you aren't going to find much he hasn't already thought about and proved one way or the other.
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ShaunWhite
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... The maths of winning and losing is the same except for the sign. If you're going to underhedge reds then you'd overhedge greens.
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ShaunWhite
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To simplify, they're two totally different markets in terms of liquidity, volatility and time span. That alone is enough to mean the staking in one is totally inappropriate for the other. You'd be mad to use a pre-race stake in the IR market.
It's only recentism that makes people even think about it. Nobody ever had a trading loss yesterday or last month and decides to let one go inplay today to cancel it out. It's only ever in the heat of the monent.