Predicted Goals and Over & Under Predictions - Guardian Market List Layout

[Dallas]

Hi,
I am trying to download the necessary files to get this working - all seems well until I try to import the Custom Column Profiles to colour the O/U .5, O/U 1.5 etc - i get the error message attached. Any idea what I am doing wrong please?

Looks like you are trying to import the colour settings files using the import custom columns button

You need to open the colour setting editor by clicking the spanner icon highlighted in the image 2nd from the bottom in the opening post
Then click the import button in the bottom corner

[Stuartxxx]

Thankyou so much!

[Stuartxxx]

Hi,

I have another, probably stupid question!
I seem to only get a handful of games which provide the predicted goals number. As far as I am aware I have touched any of the settings. Am i doing something wrong? ( I have attached my screenshot of tomorrows games I have just loaded.

[sniffer66]

Hi,

I have another, probably stupid question!
I seem to only get a handful of games which provide the predicted goals number. As far as I am aware I have touched any of the settings. Am i doing something wrong? ( I have attached my screenshot of tomorrows games I have just loaded.

As far as I remember the predicted goals figures only come in a short time prior to kick off. Might be 30 minutes

I assume you have the Correct Score markets loaded as well as Match Odds

[ShaunWhite]

As far as I remember the predicted goals figures only come in a short time prior to kick off. Might be 30 minutes

It's probably when there's enough market info to actually figure the number out. It's based on what the market thinks rather than any underlying stats.

I didn't actually use it sniffer66, do you look for where you feel its wrong or use it as a prediction?

[sniffer66]

As far as I remember the predicted goals figures only come in a short time prior to kick off. Might be 30 minutes

It's probably when there's enough market info to actually figure the number out. It's based on what the market thinks rather than any underlying stats.

I didn't actually use it sniffer66, do you look for where you feel its wrong or use it as a prediction?

I don't actually use it either Shaun. I use a Poisson model for expected goals

[ShaunWhite]

I don't actually use it either Shaun. I use a Poisson model for expected goals

. Every year I say I'll get into football. Then the season starts, i've done nothing and it becomes just a prep for next year, and repeat.

.. Have a good weekend.

[Stuartxxx]

Thanks for your answers ( I did have Correct Score Loaded too)
I'll have another go tomorrow

[sniffer66]

Dallas, I've been playing around with Predicted Goals as an additional indicator. It strikes me that to be accurate you need a fully formed CS market and I started off looking at markets with a minimum volume but I'm thinking book % would be a better indicator. Given what you know about the formula used, would you agree ?

[Dallas]

Dallas, I've been playing around with Predicted Goals as an additional indicator. It strikes me that to be accurate you need a fully formed CS market and I started off looking at markets with a minimum volume but I'm thinking book % would be a better indicator. Given what you know about the formula used, would you agree ?

You are correct about the more formed the CS market the better the prediction will be, and off the top of my head I'd be inclined to think the book% and even possibly looking at money waiting directly behind best prices would work better than using the traded volume as that is a relative value,
I just about done for the night but will double check and get back to you to be 100% sure

[sniffer66]

Dallas, I've been playing around with Predicted Goals as an additional indicator. It strikes me that to be accurate you need a fully formed CS market and I started off looking at markets with a minimum volume but I'm thinking book % would be a better indicator. Given what you know about the formula used, would you agree ?

You are correct about the more formed the CS market the better the prediction will be, and off the top of my head I'd be inclined to think the book% and even possibly looking at money waiting directly behind best prices would work better than using the traded volume as that is a relative value,
I just about done for the night but will double check and get back to you to be 100% sure

Great stuff, cheers Dallas

[Dallas]

Dallas, I've been playing around with Predicted Goals as an additional indicator. It strikes me that to be accurate you need a fully formed CS market and I started off looking at markets with a minimum volume but I'm thinking book % would be a better indicator. Given what you know about the formula used, would you agree ?

You are correct about the more formed the CS market the better the prediction will be, and off the top of my head I'd be inclined to think the book% and even possibly looking at money waiting directly behind best prices would work better than using the traded volume as that is a relative value,
I just about done for the night but will double check and get back to you to be 100% sure

Great stuff, cheers Dallas

I've doubled checked this and the answer given last night was correct

[sniffer66]

You are correct about the more formed the CS market the better the prediction will be, and off the top of my head I'd be inclined to think the book% and even possibly looking at money waiting directly behind best prices would work better than using the traded volume as that is a relative value,
I just about done for the night but will double check and get back to you to be 100% sure

Great stuff, cheers Dallas

I've doubled checked this and the answer given last night was correct

Thanks Dallas, I'll go with that then

[Archangel]

Hey Dallas

Whats the formula to predict the expected goals you are using here ?

[Dallas]

Hey Dallas

Whats the formula to predict the expected goals you are using here ?

I can't go into specific details, but it's derived from the pricing of the correct score market before the start of the match.