Value

[Snaff]

With regards to finding Value is looking at the market always going to break even? For example I watched one of Peters videos about a lay betting strategy. He showed a load of graphs with heavy backing, basically indicating if your laying these your winning but surely that is break even? Why would the earlier price be any better then the later price on a consistent basis. Unless your have a fundamental reason for laying are you just going round in circles? Hope this makes sense.

[ShaunWhite]

Breakeven only at a very large scale, but that's made of individual prices that vary wildly in value (unprovable but statistically certain). As time progresses that individual variation from breakeven narrows meaning greater value is available earlier, but that's sometimes negated by less money being available.

[Snaff]

Thanks for your input Shaun.

[ShaunWhite]

I hope you get some other feedback too. It's a central question.

[hotjohnnn]

With regards to finding Value is looking at the market always going to break even? For example I watched one of Peters videos about a lay betting strategy. He showed a load of graphs with heavy backing, basically indicating if your laying these your winning but surely that is break even? Why would the earlier price be any better then the later price on a consistent basis. Unless your have a fundamental reason for laying are you just going round in circles? Hope this makes sense.

It is kind of impossible to find value if you do not have any accurate models, that applies to every sport.

[wearthefoxhat]

With regards to finding Value is looking at the market always going to break even? For example I watched one of Peters videos about a lay betting strategy. He showed a load of graphs with heavy backing, basically indicating if your laying these your winning but surely that is break even? Why would the earlier price be any better then the later price on a consistent basis. Unless your have a fundamental reason for laying are you just going round in circles? Hope this makes sense.

Straight laying on "over-rated" selections would be very much dependant on the ratings model of your choosing. If the ratings were converted into a tissue price and then compared to the current market, and there was a disparity, then a Lay (if over-rated) or Back (if under-rated) would be the decision. The ratings used, in this instance, is the key. (Worth spending time creating your own).

In the example of a horse being heavily backed late on, a view has to be taken on why there was such a late move.

Late Gamble? Liability dumping? Competitors weakness in the paddock? Late Jockey change? Trainers/Pundit comments on TV?

The resulting BSP will give you the final picture (true price) of all the above factors and a final check on the ratings/tissue model accuracy.